The importance of pass defense

[AU-panther]

In another thread I talked about the importance of run defense, specifically that is a bit over rated by many fans and teams.

To be fair I need to use the same metric I applied for run defense and look to see if there is a correlation with pass defense.

Just like in the run defense thread I'm going to look at yards per attempt, not total yard per game.  The reason for this is simple, those numbers can be influenced more by score, basically if a team is losing they will probably start throwing it more, so the winning team is less likely to give up less yards on the ground per game.

In recap 9/12 of the playoff teams were in the bottom half of yards allowed per attempt rushing, basically they have bad rush defense.

In regards to passing:

9/12 of the playoff teams were in the top half in yards allowed per attempt passing, basically they were good at stopping the pass

5/12 were in the top 10

also both teams in the Super Bowl were in the top 10

In summery: 

top half of the league = good, bottom half of league = bad

75% of the playoff teams were good at stopping the pass

75% of the playoff teams were bad at stopping the run

Looking at it another way:

9/12 playoff teams were good at stopping the pass

3/12 playoff teams were good at stopping the run

2/12 playoff teams were good at both (Saints and Eagles

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/opp.htm

I'm not saying stopping the run isn't important, everything you do on the football field is important, but the fact is some facets of the game are more influential in wins and losses then others.

Its a passing league, being good at stopping it increases your chances of winning more than being good at stopping the run.

 

 

[CanadianCat]

I agree. Which is why Simmons at 7 would be a better pick than a DL - even though that position group is weaker. 

 

The other thing with that is that CB's are cheaper than DL's and that also helps with building a roster.  

 

[PleaseCutStewart]

30 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

In another thread I talked about the importance of run defense, specifically that is a bit over rated by many fans and teams.

To be fair I need to use the same metric I applied for run defense and look to see if there is a correlation with pass defense.

Just like in the run defense thread I'm going to look at yards per attempt, not total yard per game.  The reason for this is simple, those numbers can be influenced more by score, basically if a team is losing they will probably start throwing it more, so the winning team is less likely to give up less yards on the ground per game.

In recap 9/12 of the playoff teams were in the bottom half of yards allowed per attempt rushing, basically they have bad rush defense.

In regards to passing:

9/12 of the playoff teams were in the top half in yards allowed per attempt passing, basically they were good at stopping the pass

5/12 were in the top 10

also both teams in the Super Bowl were in the top 10

In summery: 

top half of the league = good, bottom half of league = bad

75% of the playoff teams were good at stopping the pass

75% of the playoff teams were bad at stopping the run

Looking at it another way:

9/12 playoff teams were good at stopping the pass

3/12 playoff teams were good at stopping the run

2/12 playoff teams were good at both (Saints and Eagles

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/opp.htm

I'm not saying stopping the run isn't important, everything you do on the football field is important, but the fact is some facets of the game are more influential in wins and losses then others.

Its a passing league, being good at stopping it increases your chances of winning more than being good at stopping the run.

 

 

Most teams in the playoffs had a good, if not great offense, to compensate for defensive efficiencies. We did not.

I feel like we were also the only team in the NFL that consistently let teams just rip off 5 yard run after 5 yard run against us. I'd much rather a team run for 80 yards on 1 play and then 20 yards on the other 19 runs than just consistently run it for 5 yards every play against me. We also allowed far and away the most rushing TDs (8 more than 2nd worst), which tells me when it got to gut check time in the red zone, our D just rolled over and died as teams ran it down their throat for a TD. We also allowed the most rushing 1st downs (4 more than 2nd worst). Luckily, we were only 2nd worst in %age of total yards that were rushing yards against (38.3%), only to the Browns (40.0%)

Honestly, we should look at what Tampa did to revitalize their D in 1 year. They drafted Vea and signed Suh and all of a sudden they became the best run D in the NFL (from 124 rushing ypg allowed in 2018 to 74 ypg allowed in 2019) and forced teams to be 1-dimensional. unfortunately for them, their secondary wasn't great and Winston threw a million INTs. We need to follow the same blueprint and draft Brown and rebuild the interior of our defense.

[TheMaulClaw]

Yeah KC would not have been able to come back in those games if it was for their offense...and oddly enough it was their run defense that slowed down the Titans.

That said, obviously pass defense is important. I'm just a little old school. I think there is a little bit of a pass defense/pass rush formula here that is more important.

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, PleaseCutStewart said:

Most teams in the playoffs had a good, if not great offense, to compensate for defensive efficiencies. We did not.

I feel like we were also the only team in the NFL that consistently let teams just rip off 5 yard run after 5 yard run against us. I'd much rather a team run for 80 yards on 1 play and then 20 yards on the other 19 runs than just consistently run it for 5 yards every play against me. We also allowed far and away the most rushing TDs (8 more than 2nd worst), which tells me when it got to gut check time in the red zone, our D just rolled over and died as teams ran it down their throat for a TD. We also allowed the most rushing 1st downs (4 more than 2nd worst). Luckily, we were only 2nd worst in %age of total yards that were rushing yards against (38.3%), only to the Browns (40.0%)

Honestly, we should look at what Tampa did to revitalize their D in 1 year. They drafted Vea and signed Suh and all of a sudden they became the best run D in the NFL (from 124 rushing ypg allowed in 2018 to 74 ypg allowed in 2019) and forced teams to be 1-dimensional. unfortunately for them, their secondary wasn't great and Winston threw a million INTs. We need to follow the same blueprint and draft Brown and rebuild the interior of our defense.

Why would we look at Tampa Bay?  They improved their rush defense to first in the league, based off of yards per attempt, and their defense was still bottom 5 in points allowed.  Maybe they should have improved their pass rush and/or secondary.

Just further validates the point that stopping the run is overrated.

 

 

[JARROD]

KC had a defense that is skewed by these numbers much like most stats. It’s a reason that it’s tough to depend on cherry picked incomplete stats for answers. Anyone can make any argument by cherry picking what they need for support.

they got really behind Against Tennessee and the 49ers. Their first half stats were terrible.  A lot of their games were like that all year.

Their second half defense is what bailed them out of those games. They were a total shut down.

if I cherry pick 2nd half defensive teams,.. I wouldn’t be surprised to find them top 5 against the run and pass. They would adjust to what the other team did well and shut that poo down as Negan would say,.. ha.

keep in mind that everything also goes in cycles.

its happened plenty of times in the past that teams started winning by being pass happy. Dan Marino made Buddy Ryan and the 46 look totally inept and out of date.

many teams followed suit and it was a passing league.  Then came the bigger teams that smashed the little fast teams like the Dallas Cowboys and others.

everything went smash mouth again until it was too heavy and the faster passing teams were able to take advantage and come back.

tennessee proved there is a weakness there and so did the Panthers in 2015 and the 49ers last year.

the pass happy teams are going to get smashed and the people that think it’s irrelevant don’t pay attention to history.

smash mouth will come back and and then pass happy will,..

cycles man,.. history,.. people repeat it.

[Madwolf]

2 hours ago, CanadianCat said:

I agree. Which is why Simmons at 7 would be a better pick than a DL - even though that position group is weaker. 

 

The other thing with that is that CB's are cheaper than DL's and that also helps with building a roster.  

 

Your defensive line a huge function of your pass defense. You have to put pressure on the QB in order to keep your secondary and LBers from getting burned in coverage. 

[CanadianCat]

29 minutes ago, JARROD said:

the pass happy teams are going to get smashed and the people that think it’s irrelevant don’t pay attention to history.

smash mouth will come back and and then pass happy will,..

cycles man,.. history,.. people repeat it.

Exactly. Thats why we dominated for a time in the Fox era when we had "double trouble" running the rock. The league had been changing to smaller OL and smaller faster LB's. Hurney and Fox went with bigger OL and drafted JStew and we literally smashed people. 

 

Still one of my favorite all time pics... 

 

[JawnyBlaze]

DL is a lot more influential in pass defense than DBs are in run defense. LBs are a lot more influential in run defense than they are in pass defense. It’s all interconnected and it comes down to coaching and schemes. What’s our weakest group on defense right now? Arguably its DL.  We should focus on the lines. 

[JawnyBlaze]

The more disruptive a team is where the ball starts, the better the defense is going to be. It all starts with the DL.

[CanadianCat]

6 minutes ago, Madwolf said:

Your defensive line a huge function of your pass defense. You have to put pressure on the QB in order to keep your secondary and LBers from getting burned in coverage. 

I dont disagree but I feel like the value at #7 is better at LB than at inside DL. We need a more bodies at DL but I feel like the value of a top end LB is greater than a top end LB. 

That being said if we draft Brown at #7 I would call that a good pick (cause we need players there) but if both guys are available then LB would be my choice. 

[Waldo]

They both should not be neglected, are complementary of each other and need to be addressed. I wouldn't mind skewing more on the passing side, just nothing drastic. Good news is that we have a lot of room for improvement and it shouldn't be difficult to improve both this year and start heading in the right direction with our D.

 

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, Madwolf said:

Your defensive line a huge function of your pass defense. You have to put pressure on the QB in order to keep your secondary and LBers from getting burned in coverage. 

but if you can't cover for the first 3-4 secs, it doesn't matter who you have on your line.

[JARROD]

I think we should draft Okudah or Simmons really.

whens the last time we ever drafted a top 10 corner? Actually when have we drafted a top 10 receiver? Ha.

Okudah, Simmons or Jeudy are my picks for 7 if we don’t take a quarterback somehow(Tua).

Next would be OT...

I think DT is my last of these picks. For the record I would still be happy so there’s no argument there. I wouldn’t cry is our whole draft is defense except a 2nd or 3rd being used for an exciting receiver.. sorry but Samuel has to go.