With All the Offseason QB Drama, Impossible to Mock QBs Currently

[45catfan]

Okay, so we know Trevor is going #1 to the Jags.  So that leaves Wilson, Fields and Lance as the remaining top 10 QBs.  Let's break down #2-#7:

-#2 Jets- Darnold staying or going?  Depends on which day and which source.

-#3 Dolphins- Tua should be solid, but rumors are Miami may be open to shopping him already.

-#4 Falcons- Ryan is on the downside of his career and this is a loaded QB draft.  May take one just on that fact alone.

-#5 Bengals- Drafted Burrow.  Should be the ONLY team ahead of us not even considering a QB.  HOWEVER, he did tear his ACL, so.........

-#6 Eagles-  Wentz was Deshaun, before Deshaun stole his diva drama thunder.  So is he staying or is he leaving?

-#7 Lions- Stafford wants out, that's clear.  You can say the Lions are moving on, but Stafford was the one that initiated the breakup.

AND

-#8 Panthers- YES, we need a QB but will not take Mac Jones here.  Move back several spots and take him OR move WAY back and take Trask. 

Roll your eyes people, yes, Trask will not only be a 1st round pick, but a top 20.  As an avid draft guy (not a self-proclaimed guru mind you) you don't get key positional runs this early without a domino effect.  If, and this is a big IF, the big 4 are gone in the first 6 or 7 pick, Jones and Trask will end up getting a much bigger pay day as a result because teams will get incredibly nervous.

That said, until at least 3 teams settle on what they are going to do with their current starting QBs (Jets, Eagles and Lions) it is impossible to even mock the top 10, let alone the first round.  The ramifications are too profound.

Edited January 24, 2021 by 45catfan

[45catfan]

I know it looks bleak for us people, but only a couple things have to break the Panthers way to get QB#4 (who I think will be Fields, FYI).

Miami is unlikely to deal Tua this year and regardless of the ACL tear, the Bengals are sticking with Burrow.  That takes two teams out of the fold leaving 5.  Only two other teams have to take a non-QB.  Very likely.  It takes two to tango and what are the chances that all 3 teams ahead of us with disgruntled starting QBs are able to deal them?  Throw Deshaun in the mix and you have 4.   Highly unlikely.  So that means one or more teams are sticking with their current guy and will attempt to patch things up.  Super risky to draft a prospect and bench your current franchise QB or draft a guy to sit behind a butt-hurt starter.  Drama ripe for serious organizational dysfunction.  At most, 2 guys get dealt.  Most organizations see this thing playing out badly for League moving forward and want no part of it.  Butt-hurt QBs around the League demanding to be traded every year...not a good look.

I think a lot of the hot temperatures will cool off, meaning some teams ahead of us will stay put with their current guy.  The result being the Panthers will likely get QB #4.

[MHS831]

56 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

I know it looks bleak for us people, but only a couple things have to break the Panthers way to get QB#4 (who I think will be Fields, FYI).

Miami is unlikely to deal Tua this year and regardless of the ACL tear, the Bengals are sticking with Burrow.  That takes two teams out of the fold leaving 5.  Only two other teams have to take a non-QB.  Very likely.  It takes two to tango and what are the chances that all 3 teams ahead of us with disgruntled starting QBs are able to deal them?  Throw Deshaun in the mix and you have 4.   Highly unlikely.  So that means one or more teams are sticking with their current guy and will attempt to patch things up.  Super risky to draft a prospect and bench your current franchise QB or draft a guy to sit behind a butt-hurt starter.  Drama ripe for serious organizational dysfunction.  At most, 2 guys get dealt.  Most organizations see this thing playing out badly for League moving forward and want no part of it.  Butt-hurt QBs around the League demanding to be traded every year...not a good look.

I think a lot of the hot temperatures will cool off, meaning some teams ahead of us will stay put with their current guy.  The result being the Panthers will likely get QB #4.

I am on the same page, but trades scare me. 

#2 NY Jets--How many teams need a QB?  If the Jets get Watson, what do they do with the #2 pick?  Trade it.  They don't really need a LT, and Sewell (arguably) is the only non QB worth it.  I think they trade out.  Who moves into the #2 spot?  I do not think there is a QB worth the #2 pick with Trevor off the board.

#3 Miami--they could trade out too. I do not see a QB here, but I see WR Chase LSU, T Sewell, Ore, maybe Parsons MLB if Miami stays.

#4 Atlanta--Total wild card, but if I am the GM, I look at needs--DEFENSE, WR, OL---Salary cap.  So if I think I have a year or two left in Ryan, I am going to possibly trade back and meet some needs on defense and OL, and then take a developmental QB later.  I just do not see

#5 Cincinnati--Here, if Sewell drops, this is a no brainer.  However, I also think they could take WR Chase LSU here.  Of course, trading back is an option. 

#6 Philadelphia-- I am not certain that the new coach wants a new QB, and Wentz could/should get a look in a new system.  I am guessing that the Eagles could also be a trade back candidate, especially if 3 QBs are gone, but assuming that is not the case, a WR in Philly is sorely needed if you want Wentz to get better.

#7 Detroit---Of course they are drafting a QB.  If the Lions fall in love with a QB early in the draft, they could move up. If the Panthers want a QB, they probably need to leapfrog the Lions to get their man.  There is no way the Lions do not take a QB in the draft--

So my take on this, even though nobody asked?  Round 1--picks 2-7 are going to be WIDE OPEN.  I see a scenario where all 4 QBs go in the top 5 or 6 picks.  I do not see too many scenarios where there will be 2 of the top 4 QBs at #8.  We stuck it to those WFTs!

Prognosis: Too unclear to project.

Key factor?:  The Senior Bowl.  What if we fall in love with Trask? (example).

 

[ncfan]

8 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I am on the same page, but trades scare me. 

#2 NY Jets--How many teams need a QB?  If the Jets get Watson, what do they do with the #2 pick?  Trade it.  They don't really need a LT, and Sewell (arguably) is the only non QB worth it.  I think they trade out.  Who moves into the #2 spot?  I do not think there is a QB worth the #2 pick with Trevor off the board.

#3 Miami--they could trade out too. I do not see a QB here, but I see WR Chase LSU, T Sewell, Ore, maybe Parsons MLB if Miami stays.

#4 Atlanta--Total wild card, but if I am the GM, I look at needs--DEFENSE, WR, OL---Salary cap.  So if I think I have a year or two left in Ryan, I am going to possibly trade back and meet some needs on defense and OL, and then take a developmental QB later.  I just do not see

#5 Cincinnati--Here, if Sewell drops, this is a no brainer.  However, I also think they could take WR Chase LSU here.  Of course, trading back is an option. 

#6 Philadelphia-- I am not certain that the new coach wants a new QB, and Wentz could/should get a look in a new system.  I am guessing that the Eagles could also be a trade back candidate, especially if 3 QBs are gone, but assuming that is not the case, a WR in Philly is sorely needed if you want Wentz to get better.

#7 Detroit---Of course they are drafting a QB.  If the Lions fall in love with a QB early in the draft, they could move up. If the Panthers want a QB, they probably need to leapfrog the Lions to get their man.  There is no way the Lions do not take a QB in the draft--

So my take on this, even though nobody asked?  Round 1--picks 2-7 are going to be WIDE OPEN.  I see a scenario where all 4 QBs go in the top 5 or 6 picks.  I do not see too many scenarios where there will be 2 of the top 4 QBs at #8.  We stuck it to those WFTs!

Prognosis: Too unclear to project.

Key factor?:  The Senior Bowl.  What if we fall in love with Trask? (example).

 

ZERO percent chance 

In fact, there is a Better chance of the Patriots moving to 1 for Lawerence than the Jets getting Watson without trading away the #2 pick to Houston 

[Hoenheim]

If we don't trade up for a QB, we'll likely trade down or go bpa and try our luck with a QB in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Ricky Spanish]

Trade a 2nd and a mid rounder for Stafford. Take Pitts at 8. < -- This is the trade that would produce the most immediate success for us

If we can't do the above, trade up to #2/3 and take the QB the team values the most. This will most likely take multiple 1st round picks. This trade has the potential to provide the most long term success for us.  

[SOJA]

I think we're going to be on the outside looking in for one of the top 4 guys. 

If that's the case and we can't draft one I'd look hard at Slater or Sewell. That's the best option is fixing LT now for the longterm. 

Build the o line throughout this draft and just pray next year we are in a better position to get a QB

[45catfan]

8 minutes ago, SOJA said:

I think we're going to be on the outside looking in for one of the top 4 guys. 

If that's the case and we can't draft one I'd look hard at Slater or Sewell. That's the best option is fixing LT now for the longterm. 

Build the o line throughout this draft and just pray next year we are in a better position to get a QB

Highly unlikely.  Next year's QB class is weaker and the Panthers should win some of those close games we lost this year in year 2 under Rhule.  Fewer quality prospects and a lower draft position.   Drafting a QB next spring makes little sense unless, for some crazy reason, this team majorly regresses next year.

[Shocker]

Stating the obvious, as an example...if the Jets were to trade for Watson that would leave Houston at 2 and they take QB anyway.  Highly likely that 3 QBs go before 8 and maybe 4 as another team probably moves up in front of us.

We are going to have to move up IMO.

[45catfan]

21 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I am on the same page, but trades scare me. 

#2 NY Jets--How many teams need a QB?  If the Jets get Watson, what do they do with the #2 pick?  Trade it.  They don't really need a LT, and Sewell (arguably) is the only non QB worth it.  I think they trade out.  Who moves into the #2 spot?  I do not think there is a QB worth the #2 pick with Trevor off the board.

#3 Miami--they could trade out too. I do not see a QB here, but I see WR Chase LSU, T Sewell, Ore, maybe Parsons MLB if Miami stays.

#4 Atlanta--Total wild card, but if I am the GM, I look at needs--DEFENSE, WR, OL---Salary cap.  So if I think I have a year or two left in Ryan, I am going to possibly trade back and meet some needs on defense and OL, and then take a developmental QB later.  I just do not see

#5 Cincinnati--Here, if Sewell drops, this is a no brainer.  However, I also think they could take WR Chase LSU here.  Of course, trading back is an option. 

#6 Philadelphia-- I am not certain that the new coach wants a new QB, and Wentz could/should get a look in a new system.  I am guessing that the Eagles could also be a trade back candidate, especially if 3 QBs are gone, but assuming that is not the case, a WR in Philly is sorely needed if you want Wentz to get better.

#7 Detroit---Of course they are drafting a QB.  If the Lions fall in love with a QB early in the draft, they could move up. If the Panthers want a QB, they probably need to leapfrog the Lions to get their man.  There is no way the Lions do not take a QB in the draft--

So my take on this, even though nobody asked?  Round 1--picks 2-7 are going to be WIDE OPEN.  I see a scenario where all 4 QBs go in the top 5 or 6 picks.  I do not see too many scenarios where there will be 2 of the top 4 QBs at #8.  We stuck it to those WFTs!

Prognosis: Too unclear to project.

Key factor?:  The Senior Bowl.  What if we fall in love with Trask? (example).

 

Who are the teams 100% taking a QB?  The Jags and Lions.  Despite all the whispers about Ryan, I doubt the Falcons take a QB this year. They are too close, unfortunately, to being right back in the thick of things with better coaching, a few key cogs and honestly, some better luck.  Resetting with a rookie QB makes little sense just as sitting a #4 pick overall behind Ryan (see the drama bit above) does.  Only if Ryan gets dealt (unlikely amid all the other QBs looking for new homes) would this make practical sense.

Does Philly deal Wentz?  Now, VERY doubtful.  Before Watson and Stafford made their demands, I would have said about 50/50.  Two bigger names with proven track records just blocked his ticket out of Philly.  Plus, it has been reported that a major reason (obviously not the only one) the Eagles parted ways with Pederson was his lack of commitment to Wentz.  Their front office chose the player over the coach.  That should say something right there.

I think the Jets have a better chance at taking a QB than the Eagles or the Falcons.  Right now I say that prospect is about 50/50 with the Jets.

[45catfan]

7 minutes ago, Shocker said:

Stating the obvious, as an example...if the Jets were to trade for Watson that would leave Houston at 2 and they take QB anyway.  Highly likely that 3 QBs go before 8 and maybe 4 as another team probably moves up in front of us.

We are going to have to move up IMO.

If we do, only 3 spots with the Bengals at #5.  Zero, I mean 0% chance all 4 QBs are gone in the first 4 picks.  The Bengals would love nothing more than to move back a few spots and generate more draft capital to continue building their young team.  Trade value is a 2nd round pick.  Would it be worth it to lose a 2nd rounder to almost ensure (99%) getting one of the big 4? 

The only way the Lions move up is if 3 of the 4 are gone after Atlanta's pick.  If only two are gone, I think Detroit stands firm and we jump over them making a trade with Cincy.

[SOJA]

52 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Highly unlikely.  Next year's QB class is weaker and the Panthers should win some of those close games we lost this year in year 2 under Rhule.  Fewer quality prospects and a lower draft position.   Drafting a QB next spring makes little sense unless, for some crazy reason, this team majorly regresses next year.

Oh don't get me wrong I think we need a QB this year but I don't want Mac Jones at 8 if we're left on the outside looking in at the top prospects 

[Shocker]

1 hour ago, 45catfan said:

If we do, only 3 spots with the Bengals at #5.  Zero, I mean 0% chance all 4 QBs are gone in the first 4 picks.  The Bengals would love nothing more than to move back a few spots and generate more draft capital to continue building their young team.  Trade value is a 2nd round pick.  Would it be worth it to lose a 2nd rounder to almost ensure (99%) getting one of the big 4? 

The only way the Lions move up is if 3 of the 4 are gone after Atlanta's pick.  If only two are gone, I think Detroit stands firm and we jump over them making a trade with Cincy.

While this is true and I don’t disagree, that assumes we view the 3 QBs after TL as equals.  I don’t personally.  If we cant get Wilson I would be willing to go to 5 for Fields but don't want Lance that high or even at 8.  Again this forces our hand to go up even maybe to two.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Shocker

[45catfan]

2 minutes ago, Shocker said:

While this is true and I don’t disagree, that assumes we view the 3 QBs after TL as equals.  I don’t personally.  If we cant get Wilson I would be willing to go to 5 for Fields but don't want Lance that high or even at 8.  Again this forces our hand to go up even maybe to two.

I rank them as such: Wilson, Lance and Fields.  That being said, not much separates them, IMO.  Lance has the highest ceiling, but is obviously the rawest.  Wilson is the most ready today, but I don't see him making huge strides once in the League.  Fields?  I know people say this about Lance, but I think Fields is the biggest 'boom or bust' prospect of the three.   You just can't have the inconsistency he has from game-to-game and be a can't miss prospect.  Lance has all the tools...ALL of them.  He just needs to be coached on how to best utilize them.  I'm willing to wait a half season or even a year for that to happen.