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Breer goes deep on the Darnold trade


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Historically speaking, poor olines have destroyed promising qbs or made good ones ineffective much much more than a good qb has been able to play effectively with a garbage oline, and the few who have over the last 25 years are HOF QBs (Manning).

 

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Kudos to Fitterer and whomever else participated in making the trade for Darnold.  This is the text book example of a low cost (low risk), potentially asymmetrical, high reward trade.  Even if Darnold does not become the franchise QB we all hope for, the thought process behind the trade is exactly what this franchise needs, and will serve us well in the future.  

The stench of Hurney will be finally be gone when the last contract he touched is off our books but in the meantime, this trade is a welcome new chapter.  Fitterer doing God’s work.  

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I know everyone wants to jump on Gase for setting Darnold up to fail, but I am concerned that he wasn't ever able to get up to NFL speed after three years. 

Certainly Gase deserves blame for not tailoring his offense to suit a more limited QB in Darnold but Sam also never was able to get up to speed, either. 

That is the thing that concerns me more than anything else. Perhaps he just isn't able to process at NFL speed.

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7 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I know everyone wants to jump on Gase for setting Darnold up to fail, but I am concerned that he wasn't ever able to get up to NFL speed after three years. 

Certainly Gase deserves blame for not tailoring his offense to suit a more limited QB in Darnold but Sam also never was able to get up to speed, either. 

That is the thing that concerns me more than anything else. Perhaps he just isn't able to process at NFL speed.

Watch that to see just how much time he had to process anything.

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3 hours ago, Jaxel said:

Watch that to see just how much time he had to process anything.

Well, I took a look at three different measures of offensive line futility in 2020; Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate, ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate and Pro Football References Pass Pressure Percentage. I took the bottom ten of each ranking, the QB with the most starts on the team and then compared them across a wide variety of QB statistical measures from multiple sources(PFR, Football Outsiders, NFL Next Gen Stats). This resulted in a group of 19 QB's from "oft pressured" teams. The amazing thing was that across a very wide variety of QB's(career backups, veteran journeymen, rookies, players with less than 3 years of NFL experience, elite QB's, etc), Sam Darnold managed to finish in the bottom five of almost every statistical category(10 of the 11, to be exact). 

So, while I completely understand that he didn't have good protection, none of these QB's had good protection last season, Darnold was just so consistently bad. The only other QB to be as consistently in the bottom five, was Dwayne Haskins. 

Frankly, there have been very few QB's in the NFL(if any) over the past three seasons that have been as bad as Sam Darnold. That should be a concern to every Panthers fan. How much of this is Adam Gase? Almost assuredly a decent chunk of it. How much of it is lack of talent around him? Probably a significant portion of it. But how much is just him not being able to have what it takes to be a successful NFL QB? That is the million dollar question.

My fear, is that we are going to find out the answer to that question will end up being, "Enough to matter."

Adjusted Sack Rate Bottom 10

10. Baltimore - Lamar Jackson
9. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow
8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew
7. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins
6. New York Giants - Daniel Jones
5. New England - Cam Newton
4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold
3. Seattle - Russell Wilson
2. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz
1. Houston - Deshaun Watson

Pass Block Win Rate Bottom 10

10. Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater
9. Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill
8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew
7. Dallas Cowboys - Andy Dalton
6. Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa
5. Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger
4. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow
3. New York Jets - Sam Darnold
2. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert
1. New York Giants - Daniel Jones

Pressure Percentage Bottom 10

10. Houston - Deshaun Watson
9. Washington - Dwayne Haskins
8. San Francisco - Nick Mullens
7. Seattle - Russell Wilson
6. Denver - Drew Lock
5. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz
4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold
3. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert
2. New York Giants - Daniel Jones
1. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins


Completion %

1. Watson - 70.2
2. Bridgewater 69.1
3. Wilson - 68.8
4. Cousins - 67.6
5. Herbert - 66.6
6. Minshew - 66.1
7. Newton - 65.8
8. Roethlisberger 65.6
9. Tannehill 65.5
10. Burrow - 65.3
11. Dalton - 64.9
12. Mullens - 64.7
13. Jackson - 64.4
14. Tagovailoa - 64.1
15. Jones - 62.5
16. Haskins - 61.4
17. Darnold - 59.6
18. Wentz - 57.4
19. Lock - 57.3

Total Yds/GM

1. Watson - 329.2
2. Herbert - 304.7
3. Wilson - 295.4
4. Burrow - 283.0
5. Cousins - 276.4
6. Minshew - 268.0
7. Bridgewater - 267.5
8. Tannehill - 255.3
9. Roethlisberger - 254.2
10. Jackson - 250.8
11. Mullens - 244.5
12. Wentz - 241.3
13. Jones - 240.4
14. Lock - 237.9
15. Newton - 216.6
16. Haskins - 212.2
17. Dalton 207.7
18. Darnold - 202.1
19. Tagovailoa - 192.3

Total TD's/GM

1. Wilson - 2.6
2. Tannehill - 2.5
3. Herbert - 2.4
4. Watson - 2.4
5. Cousins - 2.3
6. Jackson - 2.3
7. Roethlisberger - 2.2
8. Minshew - 1.9
9. Wentz - 1.7
10. Burrow - 1.6
11. Tagovailoa - 1.4
12. Lock - 1.4
13. Dalton - 1.3
14. Newton - 1.3
15. Bridgewater - 1.3
16. Mullens - 1.2
17. Darnold - 1.0
18. Jones - 0.9
19. Haskins - 0.8

Total TO's/GM

1. Tagovailoa - 0.5
2. Tannehill - 0.6
3. Watson - 0.8
4. Dalton - 0.8
5. Newton - 0.9
6. Roethlisberger - 0.9
7. Herbert - 1.0
8. Burrow - 1.0
9. Jackson - 1.0
10. Minshew - 1.0
11. Bridgewater - 1.1
12. Wilson - 1.2
13. Darnold - 1.2
14. Cousins - 1.3
15. Jones - 1.3
16. Lock - 1.4
17. Haskins - 1.6
18. Mullens - 1.7
19. Wentz - 1.8

TD%

1. Wilson - 7.2
2. Jackson - 6.9
3. Tannehill - 6.9
4. Cousins - 6.8
5. Watson - 6.1
6. Roethlisberger - 5.4
7. Herbert - 5.2
8. Minshew - 4.9
9. Dalton - 4.2
10. Tagovailoa - 3.8
11. Wentz - 3.7
12. Mullens - 3.7
13. Lock - 3.6
14. Burrow - 3.2
15. Bridgewater - 3.0
16. Jones - 2.5
17. Darnold - 2.5
18. Newton - 2.2
19. Haskins - 2.1

INT%

1. Burrow - 1.2
2. Watson - 1.3
3. Minshew - 1.5
4. Tannehill - 1.5
5. Roethlisberger - 1.6
6. Herbert - 1.7
7. Tagovailoa - 1.7
8. Jones - 2.2
9. Bridgewater - 2.2
10. Wilson - 2.3
11. Jackson - 2.4
12. Dalton - 2.4
13. Cousins - 2.5
14. Newton - 2.7
15. Haskins - 2.9
16. Darnold - 3.0
17. Wentz - 3.4
18. Lock - 3.4
19. Mullens - 3.7

QBR

1. Tannehill - 78.3
2. Jackson - 73.7
3. Wilson - 73.5
4. Watson - 70.5
5. Herbert - 69.5
6. Bridgewater - 64.2
7. Cousins - 63.2
8. Jones - 61.5
9. Roethlisberger - 60.1
10. Burrow - 56.2
11. Dalton - 53.8
12. Tagovailoa - 52.5
13. Minshew - 51.7
14. Wentz - 49.6
15. Lock - 48.8
16. Newton - 47.0
17. Mullens - 43.6
18. Darnold - 40.1
19. Haskins - 31.0

QB Rating

1. Watson - 112.4
2. Tannehill - 106.5
3. Wilson - 105.1
4. Cousins - 105.0
5. Jackson - 99.3
6. Herbert - 98.3
7. Minshew - 95.9
8. Roethlisberger - 94.1
9. Bridgewater - 92.1
10. Burrow - 89.8
11. Dalton - 87.3
12. Tagovailoa - 87.1
13. Mullens - 84.1
14. Newton - 82.9
15. Jones - 80.4
16. Lock - 75.4
17. Haskins - 73.0
18. Wentz - 72.8
19. Darnold - 72.7

AV

1. Wilson - 18
2. Jackson - 17
3. Tannehill - 17
4. Watson - 16
5. Cousins - 14
6. Herbert - 13
7. Newton - 12
8. Bridgewater - 12
9. Roethlisberger - 9
10. Jones - 8
11. Burrow - 7
12. Minshew - 6
13. Dalton - 5
14. Tagovailoa - 5
15. Mullens - 5
16. Lock - 5
17. Wentz - 4
18. Darnold - 3
19. Haskins - 0

DVOA

1. Watson  20.2
2. Tannehill 19.6
3. Cousins  12.0
4. Herbert 10.2
5. Wilson  8.1
6. Bridgewater 2.0
7. Roethlisberger 1.1
8. Jackson  -0.7
9. Burrow -7.3
10. Mullens -7.7
11. Tagovailoa -8.5
12. Minshew -11.0
13. Lock -16.2
14. Dalton -16.7
15. Newton -17.7
16. Jones -22.4
17. Darnold -32.2
18. Wentz -35.9
19. Haskins -40.1

Completion Percentage Above Expected

1. Watson +4.8
2. Cousins +4.3
3. Wilson +4.0
4. Burrow +3.7
5. Minshew +2.9
6. Tannehill +2.4
7. Bridgewater +2.3
8. Herbert +1.5
9. Dalton 0.0
10. Jones -0.5
11. Jackson -0.7
12. Tagovailoa -1.4
13. Roethlisberger -1.8
14. Newton -2.6
15. Nick Mullens -3.1
16. Darnold -3.2
17. Lock -3.9
18. Wentz -4.1
19. Haskins -7.1

Time To Throw

1. Roethlisberger - 2.30
2. Dalton - 2.50
3. Tagovailoa - 2.55
4. Haskins - 2.55
5. Bridgewater - 2.60
6. Mullens - 2.63
7. Burrow - 2.65
8. Herbert - 2.69
9. Tannehill - 2.69
10. Jones - 2.76
11. Minshew - 2.77
12. Newton - 2.84
13. Watson - 2.84
14. Darnold - 2.85
15. Drew Lock - 2.87
16. Cousins - 2.88
17. Wentz - 2.91
18. Wilson - 2.97
19. Jackson - 2.98

 

 

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1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

Well, I took a look at three different measures of offensive line futility in 2020; Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate, ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate and Pro Football References Pass Pressure Percentage. I took the bottom ten of each ranking, the QB with the most starts on the team and then compared them across a wide variety of QB statistical measures from multiple sources(PFR, Football Outsiders, NFL Next Gen Stats). This resulted in a group of 19 QB's from "oft pressured" teams. The amazing thing was that across a very wide variety of QB's(career backups, veteran journeymen, rookies, players with less than 3 years of NFL experience, elite QB's, etc), Sam Darnold managed to finish in the bottom five of almost every statistical category(10 of the 11, to be exact). 

So, while I completely understand that he didn't have good protection, none of these QB's had good protection last season, Darnold was just so consistently bad. The only other QB to be as consistently in the bottom five, was Dwayne Haskins. 

Frankly, there have been very few QB's in the NFL(if any) over the past three seasons that have been as bad as Sam Darnold. That should be a concern to every Panthers fan. How much of this is Adam Gase? Almost assuredly a decent chunk of it. How much of it is lack of talent around him? Probably a significant portion of it. But how much is just him not being able to have what it takes to be a successful NFL QB? That is the million dollar question.

My fear, is that we are going to find out the answer to that question will end up being, "Enough to matter."

Adjusted Sack Rate Bottom 10

10. Baltimore - Lamar Jackson
9. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow
8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew
7. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins
6. New York Giants - Daniel Jones
5. New England - Cam Newton
4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold
3. Seattle - Russell Wilson
2. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz
1. Houston - Deshaun Watson

Pass Block Win Rate Bottom 10

10. Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater
9. Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill
8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew
7. Dallas Cowboys - Andy Dalton
6. Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa
5. Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger
4. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow
3. New York Jets - Sam Darnold
2. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert
1. New York Giants - Daniel Jones

Pressure Percentage Bottom 10

10. Houston - Deshaun Watson
9. Washington - Dwayne Haskins
8. San Francisco - Nick Mullens
7. Seattle - Russell Wilson
6. Denver - Drew Lock
5. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz
4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold
3. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert
2. New York Giants - Daniel Jones
1. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins


Completion %

1. Watson - 70.2
2. Bridgewater 69.1
3. Wilson - 68.8
4. Cousins - 67.6
5. Herbert - 66.6
6. Minshew - 66.1
7. Newton - 65.8
8. Roethlisberger 65.6
9. Tannehill 65.5
10. Burrow - 65.3
11. Dalton - 64.9
12. Mullens - 64.7
13. Jackson - 64.4
14. Tagovailoa - 64.1
15. Jones - 62.5
16. Haskins - 61.4
17. Darnold - 59.6
18. Wentz - 57.4
19. Lock - 57.3

Total Yds/GM

1. Watson - 329.2
2. Herbert - 304.7
3. Wilson - 295.4
4. Burrow - 283.0
5. Cousins - 276.4
6. Minshew - 268.0
7. Bridgewater - 267.5
8. Tannehill - 255.3
9. Roethlisberger - 254.2
10. Jackson - 250.8
11. Mullens - 244.5
12. Wentz - 241.3
13. Jones - 240.4
14. Lock - 237.9
15. Newton - 216.6
16. Haskins - 212.2
17. Dalton 207.7
18. Darnold - 202.1
19. Tagovailoa - 192.3

Total TD's/GM

1. Wilson - 2.6
2. Tannehill - 2.5
3. Herbert - 2.4
4. Watson - 2.4
5. Cousins - 2.3
6. Jackson - 2.3
7. Roethlisberger - 2.2
8. Minshew - 1.9
9. Wentz - 1.7
10. Burrow - 1.6
11. Tagovailoa - 1.4
12. Lock - 1.4
13. Dalton - 1.3
14. Newton - 1.3
15. Bridgewater - 1.3
16. Mullens - 1.2
17. Darnold - 1.0
18. Jones - 0.9
19. Haskins - 0.8

Total TO's/GM

1. Tagovailoa - 0.5
2. Tannehill - 0.6
3. Watson - 0.8
4. Dalton - 0.8
5. Newton - 0.9
6. Roethlisberger - 0.9
7. Herbert - 1.0
8. Burrow - 1.0
9. Jackson - 1.0
10. Minshew - 1.0
11. Bridgewater - 1.1
12. Wilson - 1.2
13. Darnold - 1.2
14. Cousins - 1.3
15. Jones - 1.3
16. Lock - 1.4
17. Haskins - 1.6
18. Mullens - 1.7
19. Wentz - 1.8

TD%

1. Wilson - 7.2
2. Jackson - 6.9
3. Tannehill - 6.9
4. Cousins - 6.8
5. Watson - 6.1
6. Roethlisberger - 5.4
7. Herbert - 5.2
8. Minshew - 4.9
9. Dalton - 4.2
10. Tagovailoa - 3.8
11. Wentz - 3.7
12. Mullens - 3.7
13. Lock - 3.6
14. Burrow - 3.2
15. Bridgewater - 3.0
16. Jones - 2.5
17. Darnold - 2.5
18. Newton - 2.2
19. Haskins - 2.1

INT%

1. Burrow - 1.2
2. Watson - 1.3
3. Minshew - 1.5
4. Tannehill - 1.5
5. Roethlisberger - 1.6
6. Herbert - 1.7
7. Tagovailoa - 1.7
8. Jones - 2.2
9. Bridgewater - 2.2
10. Wilson - 2.3
11. Jackson - 2.4
12. Dalton - 2.4
13. Cousins - 2.5
14. Newton - 2.7
15. Haskins - 2.9
16. Darnold - 3.0
17. Wentz - 3.4
18. Lock - 3.4
19. Mullens - 3.7

QBR

1. Tannehill - 78.3
2. Jackson - 73.7
3. Wilson - 73.5
4. Watson - 70.5
5. Herbert - 69.5
6. Bridgewater - 64.2
7. Cousins - 63.2
8. Jones - 61.5
9. Roethlisberger - 60.1
10. Burrow - 56.2
11. Dalton - 53.8
12. Tagovailoa - 52.5
13. Minshew - 51.7
14. Wentz - 49.6
15. Lock - 48.8
16. Newton - 47.0
17. Mullens - 43.6
18. Darnold - 40.1
19. Haskins - 31.0

QB Rating

1. Watson - 112.4
2. Tannehill - 106.5
3. Wilson - 105.1
4. Cousins - 105.0
5. Jackson - 99.3
6. Herbert - 98.3
7. Minshew - 95.9
8. Roethlisberger - 94.1
9. Bridgewater - 92.1
10. Burrow - 89.8
11. Dalton - 87.3
12. Tagovailoa - 87.1
13. Mullens - 84.1
14. Newton - 82.9
15. Jones - 80.4
16. Lock - 75.4
17. Haskins - 73.0
18. Wentz - 72.8
19. Darnold - 72.7

AV

1. Wilson - 18
2. Jackson - 17
3. Tannehill - 17
4. Watson - 16
5. Cousins - 14
6. Herbert - 13
7. Newton - 12
8. Bridgewater - 12
9. Roethlisberger - 9
10. Jones - 8
11. Burrow - 7
12. Minshew - 6
13. Dalton - 5
14. Tagovailoa - 5
15. Mullens - 5
16. Lock - 5
17. Wentz - 4
18. Darnold - 3
19. Haskins - 0

DVOA

1. Watson  20.2
2. Tannehill 19.6
3. Cousins  12.0
4. Herbert 10.2
5. Wilson  8.1
6. Bridgewater 2.0
7. Roethlisberger 1.1
8. Jackson  -0.7
9. Burrow -7.3
10. Mullens -7.7
11. Tagovailoa -8.5
12. Minshew -11.0
13. Lock -16.2
14. Dalton -16.7
15. Newton -17.7
16. Jones -22.4
17. Darnold -32.2
18. Wentz -35.9
19. Haskins -40.1

Completion Percentage Above Expected

1. Watson +4.8
2. Cousins +4.3
3. Wilson +4.0
4. Burrow +3.7
5. Minshew +2.9
6. Tannehill +2.4
7. Bridgewater +2.3
8. Herbert +1.5
9. Dalton 0.0
10. Jones -0.5
11. Jackson -0.7
12. Tagovailoa -1.4
13. Roethlisberger -1.8
14. Newton -2.6
15. Nick Mullens -3.1
16. Darnold -3.2
17. Lock -3.9
18. Wentz -4.1
19. Haskins -7.1

Time To Throw

1. Roethlisberger - 2.30
2. Dalton - 2.50
3. Tagovailoa - 2.55
4. Haskins - 2.55
5. Bridgewater - 2.60
6. Mullens - 2.63
7. Burrow - 2.65
8. Herbert - 2.69
9. Tannehill - 2.69
10. Jones - 2.76
11. Minshew - 2.77
12. Newton - 2.84
13. Watson - 2.84
14. Darnold - 2.85
15. Drew Lock - 2.87
16. Cousins - 2.88
17. Wentz - 2.91
18. Wilson - 2.97
19. Jackson - 2.98

 

 

I think most feel he wasn't developed correctly under Gase and he is still young enough and talented enough to be effective if developed correctly.  This is the hope anyway.

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32 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

I think most feel he wasn't developed correctly under Gase and he is still young enough and talented enough to be effective if developed correctly.  This is the hope anyway.

Yeah, I hope so too. I think part of the problem is that he hasn't developed much at all. That is a big concern because it is something you see a lot in the QB busts.

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2 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Well, I took a look at three different measures of offensive line futility in 2020; Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate, ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate and Pro Football References Pass Pressure Percentage. I took the bottom ten of each ranking, the QB with the most starts on the team and then compared them across a wide variety of QB statistical measures from multiple sources(PFR, Football Outsiders, NFL Next Gen Stats). This resulted in a group of 19 QB's from "oft pressured" teams. The amazing thing was that across a very wide variety of QB's(career backups, veteran journeymen, rookies, players with less than 3 years of NFL experience, elite QB's, etc), Sam Darnold managed to finish in the bottom five of almost every statistical category(10 of the 11, to be exact). 

So, while I completely understand that he didn't have good protection, none of these QB's had good protection last season, Darnold was just so consistently bad. The only other QB to be as consistently in the bottom five, was Dwayne Haskins. 

Frankly, there have been very few QB's in the NFL(if any) over the past three seasons that have been as bad as Sam Darnold. That should be a concern to every Panthers fan. How much of this is Adam Gase? Almost assuredly a decent chunk of it. How much of it is lack of talent around him? Probably a significant portion of it. But how much is just him not being able to have what it takes to be a successful NFL QB? That is the million dollar question.

My fear, is that we are going to find out the answer to that question will end up being, "Enough to matter."

Adjusted Sack Rate Bottom 10

10. Baltimore - Lamar Jackson
9. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow
8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew
7. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins
6. New York Giants - Daniel Jones
5. New England - Cam Newton
4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold
3. Seattle - Russell Wilson
2. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz
1. Houston - Deshaun Watson

Pass Block Win Rate Bottom 10

10. Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater
9. Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill
8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew
7. Dallas Cowboys - Andy Dalton
6. Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa
5. Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger
4. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow
3. New York Jets - Sam Darnold
2. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert
1. New York Giants - Daniel Jones

Pressure Percentage Bottom 10

10. Houston - Deshaun Watson
9. Washington - Dwayne Haskins
8. San Francisco - Nick Mullens
7. Seattle - Russell Wilson
6. Denver - Drew Lock
5. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz
4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold
3. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert
2. New York Giants - Daniel Jones
1. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins


Completion %

1. Watson - 70.2
2. Bridgewater 69.1
3. Wilson - 68.8
4. Cousins - 67.6
5. Herbert - 66.6
6. Minshew - 66.1
7. Newton - 65.8
8. Roethlisberger 65.6
9. Tannehill 65.5
10. Burrow - 65.3
11. Dalton - 64.9
12. Mullens - 64.7
13. Jackson - 64.4
14. Tagovailoa - 64.1
15. Jones - 62.5
16. Haskins - 61.4
17. Darnold - 59.6
18. Wentz - 57.4
19. Lock - 57.3

Total Yds/GM

1. Watson - 329.2
2. Herbert - 304.7
3. Wilson - 295.4
4. Burrow - 283.0
5. Cousins - 276.4
6. Minshew - 268.0
7. Bridgewater - 267.5
8. Tannehill - 255.3
9. Roethlisberger - 254.2
10. Jackson - 250.8
11. Mullens - 244.5
12. Wentz - 241.3
13. Jones - 240.4
14. Lock - 237.9
15. Newton - 216.6
16. Haskins - 212.2
17. Dalton 207.7
18. Darnold - 202.1
19. Tagovailoa - 192.3

Total TD's/GM

1. Wilson - 2.6
2. Tannehill - 2.5
3. Herbert - 2.4
4. Watson - 2.4
5. Cousins - 2.3
6. Jackson - 2.3
7. Roethlisberger - 2.2
8. Minshew - 1.9
9. Wentz - 1.7
10. Burrow - 1.6
11. Tagovailoa - 1.4
12. Lock - 1.4
13. Dalton - 1.3
14. Newton - 1.3
15. Bridgewater - 1.3
16. Mullens - 1.2
17. Darnold - 1.0
18. Jones - 0.9
19. Haskins - 0.8

Total TO's/GM

1. Tagovailoa - 0.5
2. Tannehill - 0.6
3. Watson - 0.8
4. Dalton - 0.8
5. Newton - 0.9
6. Roethlisberger - 0.9
7. Herbert - 1.0
8. Burrow - 1.0
9. Jackson - 1.0
10. Minshew - 1.0
11. Bridgewater - 1.1
12. Wilson - 1.2
13. Darnold - 1.2
14. Cousins - 1.3
15. Jones - 1.3
16. Lock - 1.4
17. Haskins - 1.6
18. Mullens - 1.7
19. Wentz - 1.8

TD%

1. Wilson - 7.2
2. Jackson - 6.9
3. Tannehill - 6.9
4. Cousins - 6.8
5. Watson - 6.1
6. Roethlisberger - 5.4
7. Herbert - 5.2
8. Minshew - 4.9
9. Dalton - 4.2
10. Tagovailoa - 3.8
11. Wentz - 3.7
12. Mullens - 3.7
13. Lock - 3.6
14. Burrow - 3.2
15. Bridgewater - 3.0
16. Jones - 2.5
17. Darnold - 2.5
18. Newton - 2.2
19. Haskins - 2.1

INT%

1. Burrow - 1.2
2. Watson - 1.3
3. Minshew - 1.5
4. Tannehill - 1.5
5. Roethlisberger - 1.6
6. Herbert - 1.7
7. Tagovailoa - 1.7
8. Jones - 2.2
9. Bridgewater - 2.2
10. Wilson - 2.3
11. Jackson - 2.4
12. Dalton - 2.4
13. Cousins - 2.5
14. Newton - 2.7
15. Haskins - 2.9
16. Darnold - 3.0
17. Wentz - 3.4
18. Lock - 3.4
19. Mullens - 3.7

QBR

1. Tannehill - 78.3
2. Jackson - 73.7
3. Wilson - 73.5
4. Watson - 70.5
5. Herbert - 69.5
6. Bridgewater - 64.2
7. Cousins - 63.2
8. Jones - 61.5
9. Roethlisberger - 60.1
10. Burrow - 56.2
11. Dalton - 53.8
12. Tagovailoa - 52.5
13. Minshew - 51.7
14. Wentz - 49.6
15. Lock - 48.8
16. Newton - 47.0
17. Mullens - 43.6
18. Darnold - 40.1
19. Haskins - 31.0

QB Rating

1. Watson - 112.4
2. Tannehill - 106.5
3. Wilson - 105.1
4. Cousins - 105.0
5. Jackson - 99.3
6. Herbert - 98.3
7. Minshew - 95.9
8. Roethlisberger - 94.1
9. Bridgewater - 92.1
10. Burrow - 89.8
11. Dalton - 87.3
12. Tagovailoa - 87.1
13. Mullens - 84.1
14. Newton - 82.9
15. Jones - 80.4
16. Lock - 75.4
17. Haskins - 73.0
18. Wentz - 72.8
19. Darnold - 72.7

AV

1. Wilson - 18
2. Jackson - 17
3. Tannehill - 17
4. Watson - 16
5. Cousins - 14
6. Herbert - 13
7. Newton - 12
8. Bridgewater - 12
9. Roethlisberger - 9
10. Jones - 8
11. Burrow - 7
12. Minshew - 6
13. Dalton - 5
14. Tagovailoa - 5
15. Mullens - 5
16. Lock - 5
17. Wentz - 4
18. Darnold - 3
19. Haskins - 0

DVOA

1. Watson  20.2
2. Tannehill 19.6
3. Cousins  12.0
4. Herbert 10.2
5. Wilson  8.1
6. Bridgewater 2.0
7. Roethlisberger 1.1
8. Jackson  -0.7
9. Burrow -7.3
10. Mullens -7.7
11. Tagovailoa -8.5
12. Minshew -11.0
13. Lock -16.2
14. Dalton -16.7
15. Newton -17.7
16. Jones -22.4
17. Darnold -32.2
18. Wentz -35.9
19. Haskins -40.1

Completion Percentage Above Expected

1. Watson +4.8
2. Cousins +4.3
3. Wilson +4.0
4. Burrow +3.7
5. Minshew +2.9
6. Tannehill +2.4
7. Bridgewater +2.3
8. Herbert +1.5
9. Dalton 0.0
10. Jones -0.5
11. Jackson -0.7
12. Tagovailoa -1.4
13. Roethlisberger -1.8
14. Newton -2.6
15. Nick Mullens -3.1
16. Darnold -3.2
17. Lock -3.9
18. Wentz -4.1
19. Haskins -7.1

Time To Throw

1. Roethlisberger - 2.30
2. Dalton - 2.50
3. Tagovailoa - 2.55
4. Haskins - 2.55
5. Bridgewater - 2.60
6. Mullens - 2.63
7. Burrow - 2.65
8. Herbert - 2.69
9. Tannehill - 2.69
10. Jones - 2.76
11. Minshew - 2.77
12. Newton - 2.84
13. Watson - 2.84
14. Darnold - 2.85
15. Drew Lock - 2.87
16. Cousins - 2.88
17. Wentz - 2.91
18. Wilson - 2.97
19. Jackson - 2.98

 

 

Great research. Thanks for putting this together. I'd be curious to see the same metrics from a receiving standpoint, as play design, open targets, wr receiver win rates, etc might tell a story too.

Edited by Jaxel
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Just now, Jaxel said:

Great research. Thanks for putting this together. I'd be curious to see the same metrics from a receiving standpoint too, as play design, open targets, wr receiver win rates, etc might tell a story too.

https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/

The Deep Ball Project did a breakdown of his deep passing and I think he sums up Darnold pretty well(not to mentioned nailed what ended up happening). 

Quote

It would be sad seeing how far Sam Darnold has fallen, but that would imply he had a mountain top to fall from, and that’s even sadder.

Left for dead by the murderous Adam Gase, Darnold could not develop in an offense that encouraged bombs of 3-5 yards past the line of scrimmage to a cast of receivers that were certainly there on paper. But that doesn’t excuse the fact that he just hasn’t developed. Perhaps in a different setting he could have a better grasp of being a quarterback in the NFL, but his sensational raw talents haven’t been close to being met by anything resembling a surface.

Lacking in accuracy to the left, middle, and right, there isn’t much for Darnold to hang onto for his deep passing resume. New Jets head coach Robert Saleh has sung some praises about his quarterback, but so did Kliff Kingsbury when asked about Josh Rosen. We know they had a great, long lasting relationship, so there’s no reason not to expect the same from Darnold and Saleh.

But even if the Jets hang onto their former first round pick, they still have to build an offensive line and improve the receiving corps for him. And based on how well he’s fared thus far, is the investment in him still worth it? His peak performance is astonishingly good, but the problem is that shows up for about 10 plays a season and never appears beyond that.

I fear it’s too late. Keeping Gase for two years left The Darnold’s foundation in ruin. It’ll take a miracle for the Jets to get a Drew Brees-esque surgence from him, and I’ll be surprised if he isn’t traded.

 

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10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/

The Deep Ball Project did a breakdown of his deep passing and I think he sums up Darnold pretty well(not to mentioned nailed what ended up happening). 

 

I feel like the stars show what I mean. Out of 31 deep passes, 27 were a tight window, as compared to 4 in an open window. That means a staggering 89% of his deep passes were thrown to a heavily covered receiver. This as compared to say, Tannehill or Bridgewater, per say, who saw tighter cover more in the 75% range...

I just think there is more to it the success, than just numbers.

But I'm a half glass full kind of guy, so I'll gladly own it if my excitement ends up being misplaced.

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1 minute ago, Jaxel said:

I feel like the stars show what I mean. Out of 31 deep passes, 27 were a tight window, as compared to 4 in an open window. That means a staggering 89% of his deep passes were thrown to a heavily covered receiver. This as compared to say, Tannehill or Bridgewater, per say, who saw tighter cover more in the 75% range...

I just think there is more to it the success, than just numbers.

But I'm a half glass full kind of guy, so I'll gladly own it if my excitement ends up being misplaced.

I think there is more to success than the numbers too. But that is why I am even more skeptical. Darnold just doesn't seem to have "it" when you watch his film. 

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Think of the jobs we've had over our lifetime. Certain ones we loved, maybe because of the work or the boss and people around you. If you hate your boss or he gives you BS assignments or you just don't like the way he does things, but have no power to do anything about it, what do you do? Just do it because you can't get another job that pays that much or you're under contract and you can't leave. Or secondly, you find another job or career. 

Darnold couldn't do #2 and we don't know how much #1 affected his performance. It's not just Gase, it's the whole Jets organization has been a sh#t show for 30+ years. It's not one thing, it's a series of things. People thrive in good environments and if you look at what people say about the character, it's not that he's just a good guy, but an alpha, a leader, great work ethic, etc. That's somebody who is going about his business even though the environment around him sucks. 

Another example is Robbie Anderson. We get him and he instantly thrives. He wasn't being used right and maybe the culture wasn't so players could thrive. 

I am excited to see what Sam can do and hoping his story becomes one of Drew Brees that his 2nd team becomes his home for a long time and we find out next franchise QB with only a 1 year break between Cam and Sam. Some teams go decades before finding that long term QB. 

It's a shot. It's a risk, but a low risk - high reward shot and I like it. 

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My guess is the panthers were targeting Wilson.  They explored opportunities to move up for Wilson with the Jets and Miami.  If the Jets stuck with Darnold, Wilson could be had through the Miami pick.  As soon as the Jets made it known they would consider offers for Darnold, the Panthers knew Wilson was gone to the Jets.  No one else was worth moving up for based on their analysis.

All things considered, I think the Panthers are on the right path.  Roll the dice on a young, developing QB, tag Moton, sign some solid vets for the interior line, and hang on to 8 and 39.  If we can land Pitts or Sewell at 8, we should see a much improved product.

Assuming our defense gels quickly and we can add a little help at CB/S, we should be competitive in every game. 

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