Analytics that will shape Draft Strategy or my name isn't MHS831

[MHS831]

Fitterer and Brady started talking about the Panthers drafts, where we have been averaging about 6.7 (going from memory) selections per year.  The average NFL team (with comp picks has 8.1)  They are concerned with the lack of draft capital, and then they mentioned trading back.  Only twice in their history have the Panthers traded DOWN in the first round.  Unless Sewell, Pitts (maybe) or Fields is there, I see us trading down.

But that is not what I gleaned from that comment--what it means to me/us?  We are being driven by analytics for perhaps the first time ever. 

Each year, we look at the turnover margin, and that does not really tell the whole story.  A better stat is "3 and out."  The average NFL team has 12 drives per game.  Think of a gunslinger with 6 bullets in his first half revolver and six in his second half revolver.

Yes, turnovers are great for the defense if we are getting turnovers, but three and outs are far too problematic for us.  Last year, we were +1 in the turnover margin.  Not good enough to overcome the "three and out" problem. So if we are really into analytics and finding ways to help our offense, we should start with a defense that gives them an extra bullet.  Because if the Panthers get 13 drives per game, the opposition then gets 11.  If most games are won by less than a TD and the average drive is worth nearly 2 points, then nearly 4 points would have won or gone into overtime 4 times last season.  If we won 3, the team would have won 8 games---all because we can't get off the damn field.

Then there is the "average field position" statistic that is huge.  A good defense is like hitting from the ladies tees in golf vs. hitting from the pro tees.  Huge difference.  Why?  The average drive (remember, there are 12 on average) is 30.1 yards per drive.  So if we are starting our average drive from the 20, we are punting.  If we are starting our average drive from the 30, we are at least getting a field goal opportunity, albeit from 57 yard attempt.  But kickers are much better than they once were, completing about 60% of attempts from 50+ yards.  So, forgetting TDs, if your team gets 3 first downs, they are likely to be kicking a field goal that gives them a 60% chance of scoring 3 points.  If that happens on half the positions, then that equates to about 10 points per game if your field position is 10 yards better on average than getting the ball at the 20.

 

So what does this all mean?  A good defense is your best offense.  In 2020, the Panthers had below a 39% third down conversion rate on offense, they were ranked 24th of 32.  On defense, they were ranked 31st in the NFL in conversion rates for opponents on third down, failing to get off the field nearly 50% of the time (49.25%).  That means the Panthers were converting on third downs in the bottom 25% of the league, and they were nearly last in defending other teams from converting on third down.

In other words,  in 2020, the Panthers got first downs on 76 of 195 third downs, while opponents got first downs on 98 of 199 third down opportunities.  So since we had nearly an equal number of third downs as our opponents in 2020, we converted on 22 fewer, or gave up 22 more. That is the equivalent of 1.375 possessions per game, better field position for the opponent--so it increases their likelihood for scoring for the other team and decreases your offenses chance to score. So in other words, we were giving the opposition the equivalent of an extra drive and a third per game than our offense. 

So we can build the offense if we want with a tackle and WR but that does not get the D off the field-- what kinds of plays are usually run on third down?  (Hint: PASS plays).  On third down is when you are more likely to attach the defenses' weakness.  In this case---CB.  So we need to get off the field and we need turnovers. We need an extra bullet, not a missing bullet.

A #1 Shutdown, in your face CB is perhaps a bigger need than LT.  That makes Bouye and Jackson better because they get lesser WRs.  Brady and Ryan etc. can't go to the #1 WR who is being guarded by Jackson or rookie Pride with his 32 yard cushion because the S was cheating toward the #1 WR to help "take the bait" Jackson.  No---it helps us improve, and along with Reddick and Burns and YGM---#1 CB is a MUST.

But what about LT?  They are still important, but only when we have the ball.  This draft has smart, plug and play LTs when we draft in round 2.

And yes, we need to covert on third downs, and a third dangerous WR would make that happen.  Again, if we can move a little back, grab a top CB, move back up after grabbing a plug and play LT, and take a game breaking WR, I can do with Arnold and Sullivan and Thomas at TE for now.''

 

FOLKS I am a researcher and the one thing everyone knows:  If you aren't making data-informed decisions, you are making stupid or blind decisions.  We see the symptoms of the problem and not the entire problem.  From this analytical perspective, getting off the field on third down gives the Brady Bunch more opportunities to score--but to do that, you need the ball.  Who gives up the third down plays? CBs with cushions.  We are the 31st worst team in the league, failing to get off the field on about half of the third downs.  THAT is A HUGE PROBLEM.

So don't boo and kick things if we draft Surtain or Horn.  Understand it.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Great post 

[BrianS]

That's a lot of words.  I can shortcut that a bit.

We score TD's 50% of the time we are in the red zone.  If that doesn't scream OFFENSIVE LINE I don't know what does.

[Panthers Rhule]

Excellent post! I totally agree with all the logic you have presented. It's a team game and it takes a complete team to win. Rhule even said in his next to last presser that their inability to make stops on 3rd down last season was their biggest problem and he's correct. I will not be upset at all if our first pick is a shutdown CB, especially in a trade back scenario where we gain more draft capital. Hopefully for 2022 as well as what we'd get in 2021. I've been waiting for a calculated, intelligent, and analytical organization for a while now. That's why I was excited about getting Rhule and now bringing the new GM to really get this process started. I'm expecting an even better draft this season than we had last season as I expect more picks coming our way and still getting quality players that serve a purpose. 

[MHS831]

4 minutes ago, BrianS said:

That's a lot of words.  I can shortcut that a bit.

We score TD's 50% of the time we are in the red zone.  If that doesn't scream OFFENSIVE LINE I don't know what does.

Not effectively.  Words are your friends.  Does this stat tell you how often we were in the red zone compared to other teams?  Teams need opportunities to score before you measure their success at scoring.  If the Panthers scored 99% of the time in the red zone and another team scored 59% of times in the red zone but scored more points, do you think red zone scoring was an issue?  Man, I am a research professor.  I know the difference between the central problem and side effects.  Scoring is shiny and what everyone pays attention to-opportunities to score are more important, so no, it does not scream OL. It could scream QB, WR, TE.  Dont know how you arrived at that conclusion, frankly.

Edited April 25, 2021 by MHS831

[musicman]

if Sewell or Slater or Pitts are gone, I would take a CB or drop a few spots and get a CB. I would not take a QB but what do I know. 

[kungfoodude]

CB is probably a trade down selection, IMO. I don't see any of them going in the top 8. I suspect the run on them will be from 10-25 in the draft.

[MHS831]

13 minutes ago, musicman said:

if Sewell or Slater or Pitts are gone, I would take a CB or drop a few spots and get a CB. I would not take a QB but what do I know. 

I feel the same way--you have to look at the panaramic picture and not just the need/player available.  If I suggest a CB, I am suggesting trading back and adding a second or third rounder to assure us the T and WR spots are addressed.

I really like Pitts the player--he might be my favorite player in this draft.  But taking him at 8 would be a coo, however, it does not provide extra picks and now we have needs at LT, CB, and WR and 2 day 2 picks to do it.  It means we can't use the third rounder to move up if needed.  So Pitts is a luxury, if you ask me.

I use him as trade bait to get a good deal and I stick to the #1 CB/LT/WR script.  If we trade back and get a second and use the third to trade up--we could get 3 impact players in the first 45 picks.

There are hundreds of ways to look at this, and I try to keep an open mind.  It NEVER plays out the way I think it will and I spend draft day going through a range of emotions from anger, to apathy to "oh, I see what they are doing."

[MHS831]

8 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

CB is probably a trade down selection, IMO. I don't see any of them going in the top 8. I suspect the run on them will be from 10-25 in the draft.

It sure is, but not far.  I am really loving Surtain, Farley, and Horn.  Add a second rounder, take the OL and WR and the rest is gravy.

[MHS831]

I can see taking Surtain at 8, however.

[ForJimmy]

MHS831, if that is your real name... great post! I love Newsome, Samuel Jr, and Horne as mid/late 1st round CBs in this draft and I think we can get a solid LT in the 2nd (assuming Sewell isn’t there at 8). Trading back wouldn’t be the worst thing at all. I’m hoping Lance falls to 8 and we trade with NE or WFT for a nice little haul (assuming Sewell and Fields aren’t there at 8). 

[Basbear]

[Captain Morgan]

3 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

 we trade with NE or WFT for a nice little haul 

 

We have 16 players with first round grades.  Trading with NE (15) guarantees us one of them.  

Trading with WFT (19), we could get lucky and still get one.  If only 2 of the 5 QBs in draft are on list, and 5 get taken there is a decent chance one of our guys could fall to 19.  But because of the risk involved, I'd want a hell of a lot from the WFT in that trade.

[ForJimmy]

2 minutes ago, Captain Morgan said:

 

We have 16 players with first round grades.  Trading with NE (15) guarantees us one of them.  

Trading with WFT (19), we could get lucky and still get one.  If only 2 of the 5 QBs in draft are on list, and 5 get taken there is a decent chance one of our guys could fall to 19.  But because of the risk involved, I'd want a hell of a lot from the WFT in that trade.

2022 1st plus some