Sophomore Slump

[kungfoodude]

It isn't uncommon to see a rookie have a slight or major dip in production during their second NFL season, for a variety of reasons. Which of our 2020 rookies do you think will see a slump in production and/or PT in 2021 and why?

For reference:

Derrick Brown

Yetur Gross-Matos

Jeremy Chinn

Troy Pride Jr.

Kenny Robinson

Bravvion Roy

Stanley Thomas Oliver

 

My picks:

Jeremy Chinn(INB4 incoming stream of illogical and irrational hate.

In 2020, Chinn put up exceptional numbers including making the NFL record books(back-to-back TO's returned for TD). However, he did rack up gaudy tackling statistics at a position where you would expect that, linebacker. In 2021, we expect to see him shift to playing in the secondary and we also improved our front seven. I suspect we will see his numbers fall almost across the board with this position change and less opportunities for tackles at the second level with our offseason roster changes. 

Troy Pride Jr.

The 2020 Carolina Panthers defensive backfield roster was thin and lacking in overall talent. This allowed one of our more "boom or bust" picks in Troy Pride to get ample playing time during the season. As a raw rookie being forced into early and often action, Pride Jr. was a mixed bag in 2020 but showed some occasional flashes of solid play. Enter 2021 and the CB roster is much deeper and more talented. This could lead to Pride Jr. being forced down the depth chart as more talented or more experienced players ascend the depth chart. I expect he will get SIGNIFICANTLY less playing time in 2021.

Bravvion Roy

See Troy Pride Jr.

Stanley Thomas Oliver

See Troy Pride Jr.

[Khaki Lackey]

In regard to Chinn, numbers going down because of a position change is not a slump. I'm a little concerned with the position change causing an actual slump. I know he played safety in college, I just hope they aren't putting too much on him too soon. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by Khaki Lackey

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Khaki Lackey said:

Numbers going down because of a position change is not a slump. I'm a little concerned with the position change causing an actual slump. I know he played safety in college, I just hope they aren't putting too much on him too soon. 

I think we are just using the term "slump" a little differently. I am being a little more broad with my use of it. 

I expect to see an obvious production loss in 2021. To me the biggest thing to actually worry about is that Chinn wasn't terribly good in coverage in 2020. I do have a little bit of concern that he might get picked on while he is learning.

[LinvilleGorge]

Chinn's tackle numbers will likely go down simply due to a move to safety. I won't consider that a slump, but the media might because they're mostly dumb and cater almost entirely to the dumb. 

[SBBlue]

Good post.

When I think of sophomore slump, I normally think of play that declines a bit because they were so good out of the gate.  Chinn and Brown fit that.    Pride, Roy and ST Oliver I thought were just ok, so if they slump from there well...

Chinn's situation is changing, so its going to be hard to gauge if it is sophomore slump or just the nature of the new position.  Yes, Chinns tackling numbers should drop.   I guess we'll have to judge by expected increases in pass breakups and ints.  

Derrick Brown, however, is truly a prime candidate to see a genuine sophomore slump.  He had a good year and everyone is expecting him to do better this year with all the new help on the line.  I don't expect it, but he is a prime candidate based on last year performance and current expectations.

 

[Moo Daeng]

I can see Chinn having fewer tackles but that doesn't make it a slump it is due to some better players around him. 

I don't see the others being slump candidates because they aren't starters. They can be better players and contributing more quality without the quantity. 

[Ricky Spanish]

I mean this with all the love in the world, I honestly have no idea what people are talking about in terms of the "ups" when they talk about the ups and downs that Pride experienced last season. 

I really didn't have high expectations for him last season, and he played just as bad as I expected. 

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Chinn's tackle numbers will likely go down simply due to a move to safety. I won't consider that a slump, but the media might because they're mostly dumb and cater almost entirely to the dumb. 

He also may have some time adjusting to safety. I think it is possible he struggles a lot more with the big increase in coverage duties. 

But I am also not necessarily using "slump" as a strictly negative term. 

4 minutes ago, SBBlue said:

Good post.

When I think of sophomore slump, I normally think of play that declines a bit because they were so good out of the gate.  Chinn and Brown fit that.    Pride, Roy and ST Oliver I thought were just ok, so if they slump from there well...

Chinn's situation is changing, so its going to be hard to gauge if it is sophomore slump or just the nature of the new position.  Yes, Chinns tackling numbers should drop.   I guess we'll have to judge by expected increases in pass breakups and ints.  

Derrick Brown, however, is truly a prime candidate to see a genuine sophomore slump.  He had a good year and everyone is expecting him to do better this year with all the new help on the line.  I don't expect it, but he is a prime candidate based on last year performance and current expectations.

 

I am not using slump as a strictly negative term for the purposes of the post, but it does typically have a negative connotation. 

Brown is a good candidate but I genuinely expect him to improve in 2021 as he gets more experience. Plus, I think his 2021 line-mates are better suited to help him shine. 

If he has a slump from 2020, I would be pretty disappointed.

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

I mean this with all the love in the world, I honestly have no idea what people are talking about in terms of the "ups" when they talk about the ups and downs that Pride experienced last season. 

I really didn't have high expectations for him last season, and he played just as bad as I expected. 

If you look at him on film he was actually in good postion more often than not, he just wasn't making plays on the ball. It might be a stretch but if he can improve that, he could be a solid CB. He wasn't get toasted all the time, just wasn't completing plays.

That's what I saw, anyway.

[Moo Daeng]

If anything I can see Pride making more of an impact as someone with a year of experience and not being required to do as much. 

He certainly didn't look like a lost cause in anyway to me.

Edited June 30, 2021 by Moo Daeng

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

If anything I can see Pride making more of an impact as someone with a year of experience and not being required to do as much. 

I don't think he is gonna get nearly the playing time in 2021. People forget, he actually started 8 games in 2020 and played 50% of all our defensive snaps.

We are a lot deeper in that position this season. I don't think he is exactly a shoe in for that #4 CB spot, either.

Edited June 30, 2021 by kungfoodude

[RumHam]

It'll be Brown or Gross-Matos. Brown has to majorly show improvement strides otherwise it's a down year. You can't draft a DT that high only to have them not evolve to be elite. 

[kungfoodude]

11 minutes ago, RumHam said:

It'll be Brown or Gross-Matos. Brown has to majorly show improvement strides otherwise it's a down year. You can't draft a DT that high only to have them not evolve to be elite. 

IMO, the biggest thing he needs to clean up is the missed tackles and the mental errors. Other than that, he consistently improved as the season progressed. 

Why do you say YGM? He really didn't produce at a high level so a slump for him would be pretty bad.

[Wes21]

Brown and Gross-Matus tackles are going to go up because they will be wrecking shop at and behind the line of scrimmage.  So even if Chinn stayed in the same position his tackle numbers would go down because the guys will already be tackled.