Really good article on Sam Darnold. Worth a click.

[CRA]

13 minutes ago, SBBlue said:

Every QB turns the ball over.  Seriously?  That's what you're going with.    Sam has 1.4 int% and you say that supports your conclusion.  Whatever.

Every QB doesn't turn the ball over as consistently has Darnold has throughout both a college and professional career. 

You cherry picking out a 2 game INT% isn't data that dismisses that.  Especially when he has turned the ball over in every appearance to date here.    

[CRA]

22 minutes ago, SBBlue said:

Teddy is playing very well right now.  Looks like he's better than last year for sure.  The move lit a fire under his ass.  Tyrod Taylor was looking good too.  

The wheels may come off at one point of Sam, Teddy, Murray, or Hurts like they did for  Taylor, Winston and Tannehill.  Sometimes they regress too the mean.  Sometimes they don't  We'll see.

This notion that players are static and will always be what they have always been is just not supported by the data or our experience.

If you think Sam's current play supports the notion that he is a turnover-prone QB, you must not watch much football, because then they nearly all are, including the greats.  .5 ints a game is very good.

 

Teddy is simply being Teddy.    People put too much weight on one or two games.  We saw that last year here, when people wanted to pretend Teddy Checkdown was something new and different for a minute.  He wasn't.  He isn't in Denver.   There also is an adjustment period in the NFL.  It's why Kyle Allen, Teddy, etc come out of the gates looking better than they are.   Unless you are trash, you have a built in edge early until the DCs get some tape on you and your flaws within a new offense. 

players can grow.  players can get better.  but I do not believe your DNA ever changes.   End of the day, Teddy will always be Teddy. 

and you can win with Teddy.  and you can win with Sam.   What matters most is the situation you put those types in.     And I have always predicted we would have a decent year this year.   Coming in I had us winning as many as 9 games this year.   

[SBBlue]

1 minute ago, CRA said:

players can grow.  players can get better. 

Hey we agree on something.

Quote

but I do not believe your DNA ever changes.   End of the day, Teddy will always be Teddy. 

Who is saying this?

So if Sam has an 1.5%  int% at the end of the regular season, you are going to still insist that you were right, because there were still SOME ints?

 

 

[1usctrojan]

3 minutes ago, SBBlue said:

Hey we agree on something.

Who is saying this?

So if Sam has an 1.5%  int% at the end of the regular season, you are going to still insist that you were right, because there were still SOME ints?

 

 

Good thing the Bills thought an interception/inaccurate prone QB, from a small school in the Mountain West conference - that couldn’t even win that conference, or defeat a Power 5 school…..was worthy enough to draft in the first round and build around him.  
 

Guess a raw QB with skills can shine with good coaching, building an offense around a QB actually works.

[CRA]

21 minutes ago, SBBlue said:

So if Sam has an 1.5%  int% at the end of the regular season, you are going to still insist that you were right, because there were still SOME ints?

 

INT% isn't the metric I would exclusively use to judge things. 

If Sam plays a full season and has 18 INTs, fumbles 9 times?  Yeah, I think Sam will of ended up being Sam.  And he might easily win the most games of his career while being the same type guy he has always been.   

[SBBlue]

3 minutes ago, 1usctrojan said:

Good thing the Bills thought an interception/inaccurate prone QB, from a small school in the Mountain West conference - that couldn’t even win that conference, or defeat a Power 5 school…..was worthy enough to draft in the first round and build around him.  
 

Guess a raw QB with skills can shine with good coaching, building an offense around a QB actually works.

Yeah.  I've been saying Sam's int rate will go down.  It has.  Hopefully it will stay there.  Early returns are good.  We'll see.   11% of the season done.  There's  15 games left.

[CRA]

5 minutes ago, SBBlue said:

Yeah.  I've been saying Sam's int rate will go down.  It has.  Hopefully it will stay there.  Early returns are good.  We'll see.   11% of the season done.  There's  15 games left.

Well, when your coach ask you to check down at a very high rate to CMC and company vs opponents that can't score.....it can aid a INT%

But his turnover rate per game isn't going down.   In every game to date, the bad turnover juju has peaked it's head out to say hello.   Which is a cause for concern given he hasn't been in a rough game yet. 

I'm not trying to hate.  Just declaring everyone is great or better or that we know all these things so early....isn't my bag. 

I like Sam.  I hope he does well.  I'm just not willing to be overly optimistic yet. 

[glenwo2]

30 minutes ago, CRA said:

Well, when your coach ask you to check down at a very high rate to CMC and company vs opponents that can't score.....it can aid a INT%

But his turnover rate per game isn't going down.   In every game to date, the bad turnover juju has peaked it's head out to say hello.   Which is a cause for concern given he hasn't been in a rough game yet. 

I'm not trying to hate.  Just declaring everyone is great or better or that we know all these things so early....isn't my bag. 

I like Sam.  I hope he does well.  I'm just not willing to be overly optimistic yet. 

From what you're inferring, it doesn't look like Sam will be in the Future plans in your eyes when all is said and done.

Cart before the horse and all that....

[Jon Snow]

23 minutes ago, glenwo2 said:

From what you're inferring, it doesn't look like Sam will be in the Future plans in your eyes when all is said and done.

Cart before the horse and all that....

He's always looking for things to complain about with Sam. Some valid, most nitpicking things that every qb does. Mainly it's because hes not Fields.  Sorry @CRAyou know it's true. 

[mav1234]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

Well, when your coach ask you to check down at a very high rate to CMC and company vs opponents that can't score.....it can aid a INT%

But his turnover rate per game isn't going down.   In every game to date, the bad turnover juju has peaked it's head out to say hello.   Which is a cause for concern given he hasn't been in a rough game yet. 

I'm not trying to hate.  Just declaring everyone is great or better or that we know all these things so early....isn't my bag. 

I like Sam.  I hope he does well.  I'm just not willing to be overly optimistic yet. 

the "CmC check down" stuff... Man, plenty of those throws are not check downs... They're designed plays to get CMC into mismatches...

How can you simultaneously say "his turnover rate hasn't gone down" while saying "2 games worth of passes isn't enough to show his turnover rate has TRULY gone down"?  It doesn't make sense. Either his play in these two games shows something, or it doesn't, it can't be that you get to ignore his int% while pointing to his one int as evidence he's "the same."

If Darnold gets to a total of 27 turnovers it'll be significantly more turnovers than he's had in the last 2 years by quite a bit, despite a start with fewer turnovers, and with a better cast... Very unlikely. 

[CRA]

1 hour ago, mav1234 said:

the "CmC check down" stuff... Man, plenty of those throws are not check downs... They're designed plays to get CMC into mismatches...

How can you simultaneously say "his turnover rate hasn't gone down" while saying "2 games worth of passes isn't enough to show his turnover rate has TRULY gone down"?  It doesn't make sense. Either his play in these two games shows something, or it doesn't, it can't be that you get to ignore his int% while pointing to his one int as evidence he's "the same."

If Darnold gets to a total of 27 turnovers it'll be significantly more turnovers than he's had in the last 2 years by quite a bit, despite a start with fewer turnovers, and with a better cast... Very unlikely. 

The situation around Sam is vastly different.  You have to account for that and that it is going to produce much better outcomes…even if he were to be literally the same QB.   Which he could be.  Or is very close to still even if he is improving.  

* 18 INTs and 9 fumbles.  That is just a projection over a full season of what he has been in the NFL.  That is just fumbles.  Not fumbles lost.   He puts the ball on the ground on average every other game.   And I look at total fumbles often because recovering them or not is often just lady luck. 

and yeah two games where has made stupid turnovers in each game….isn’t evidence that Sam no longer is a turnover problem for a team.   

[CRA]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

He's always looking for things to complain about with Sam. Some valid, most nitpicking things that every qb does. Mainly it's because hes not Fields.  Sorry @CRAyou know it's true. 

Fields didn’t exist last offseason though.  And I’m essentially taking the exact same stance I took with Teddy Bridgewater with Sam.  

 

[mav1234]

27 minutes ago, CRA said:

The situation around Sam is vastly different.  You have to account for that and that it is going to produce much better outcomes…even if he were to be literally the same QB.   Which he could be.  Or is very close to still even if he is improving.  

* 18 INTs and 9 fumbles.  That is just a projection over a full season of what he has been in the NFL.  That is just fumbles.  Not fumbles lost.   He puts the ball on the ground on average every other game.   And I look at total fumbles often because recovering them or not is often just lady luck. 

and yeah two games where has made stupid turnovers in each game….isn’t evidence that Sam no longer is a turnover problem for a team.   

You can't say "he's going to look better because he's got a better team, but will commit as many turnovers as before, despite the fact he hasn't so far, but also he's made a couple of mistakes so he's going to definitely make as many mistakes as he used to despite not doing so so far!". It doesn't make sense.

His first and 3rd season he had 5 and 4 fumbles, over 13/12 games, btw. Averages are pretty dumb when you've got observations that deviate substantially from others. 

[Dunn]

Me again...looks like Sam is settling in nicely back to his Jets days.  He hasn't changed, CMC made him look better then he is.