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Worst Kept Secret at the Senior bowl (Panthers Interest in Pickett)

ncfan

By ncfan,
in Carolina Panthers

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BlitzMonster Mentor

BlitzMonster

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

My fear with Pickett is that he's reached his peak and won't replicate his college success in the pros.

Pickett will be 24 going into his first NFL training camp. 

He had great success last year as one of the oldest and most experienced players in the ACC.   So, considering that fact, his great season is less of a surprise.

I also wonder how much better Pickett can get in the NFL.  Realistically I don't think it's that much.  He'll be a Teddy Bridgewater game-manager QB at best.   On a dysfunctional, poorly coached team like the Panthers, he would likely just flame out and then develop into a longtime backup QB that plays for several other NFL teams. 

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45catfan Grand Master

45catfan

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46 minutes ago, Luciu5 said:

Are you holding the ball at the laces???

Also out of curiousity, my hands measure 8 1/2" - same as Pickett's. But I'm 5' 6" tall. If he legit has a hand condition, that's going to have to evaluated more closely. I'd be curious what his left hand measures just as a comparison.

Yep, I haven't thrown a NFL regulation sized ball is a while, but I remember it being it's ever-so-slightly big for my hand size.  A college sized football feels about right though, IIRC.

So yeah, this will be an issue for him.  Maybe not so much passing (unless in bad weather conditions), but with hits.  If Pickett gets hit by a NFL D-lineman or LB, that ball is coming out unless he has both hands on it.

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45catfan Grand Master

45catfan

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1 hour ago, Icege said:

Agreed on most (if not all!) points.

To expand on Pickett though, out of the other known "top QBs" for this draft (Willis, Howell, Corral, Strong, and Ridder), the only QB that fumbled the ball more often and turned it over more often was Desmond Ridder. In Ritter's defense, he did score more often?

QB Games Fumbles Fumbles Lost Fumble Avg INTs TOs TO Avg TOT TDs
Kenny Pickett 54 28 12 0.5185 32 44 0.8148 101
Sam Howell 37 18 7 0.4865 23 30 0.8108 109
Carson Strong 32 11 4 0.3438 19 23 0.7188 74
Desmond Ridder 50 26 17 0.5200 28 45 0.9000 115
Malik Willis 29 14 5 0.4828 18 23 0.7931 76
Matt Corral 37 13 7 0.3514 23 30 0.8108 75


Admittedly, I'm still traumatized from the Jimmy Clausen era. Pickett could by all means be an average NFL QB, but I don't think that's what we're looking for when we say we want a franchise guy.

(I'm all aboard the Aqeel Glass train fwiw)

So Pickett averaged roughly a fumble every other game.  Who cares that his team was able to recover over half of them.  The point is how often he put the ball on the ground!  Now take into account our OL situation and the LT we are passing up to draft Mr. dwarf-hands. Pitts OL was decent too, no?  Does this really seem like a good idea????

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Luciu5 Veteran

Luciu5

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2 hours ago, 45catfan said:

Yep, I haven't thrown a NFL regulation sized ball is a while, but I remember it being it's ever-so-slightly big for my hand size.  A college sized football feels about right though, IIRC.

So yeah, this will be an issue for him.  Maybe not so much passing (unless in bad weather conditions), but with hits.  If Pickett gets hit by a NFL D-lineman or LB, that ball is coming out unless he has both hands on it.

You're not suppose to hold the ball at the laces....

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

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4 minutes ago, Luciu5 said:

This is my issue with Pickett. Burrow does this, Pickett hides his hands. Just says a lot about their mentality. Pickett doesn't seem very alpha in all this.

He will have them measured before the draft. Honestly it’s just trolling them at this point. Burrow’s are 9 Pickett’s will probably be 8.5 and everyone will freak out. 

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Jackie Lee Grand Master

Jackie Lee

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2 hours ago, 45catfan said:

So Pickett averaged roughly a fumble every other game.  Who cares that his team was able to recover over half of them.  The point is how often he put the ball on the ground!  Now take into account our OL situation and the LT we are passing up to draft Mr. dwarf-hands. Pitts OL was decent too, no?  Does this really seem like a good idea????

Yup, he fumbled two snaps in one rainy practice last week. 

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Luciu5 Veteran

Luciu5

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3 hours ago, BlitzMonster said:

Pickett will be 24 going into his first NFL training camp. 

He had great success last year as one of the oldest and most experienced players in the ACC.   So, considering that fact, his great season is less of a surprise.

I also wonder how much better Pickett can get in the NFL.  Realistically I don't think it's that much.  He'll be a Teddy Bridgewater game-manager QB at best.   On a dysfunctional, poorly coached team like the Panthers, he would likely just flame out and then develop into a longtime backup QB that plays for several other NFL teams. 

Look I'm not a huge Pickett fan, buuuuuuuuuut....

Can DJ Moore get better? Can Brian Burns get better? What about Jeremy Chinn? Has he peaked? Chinn turns 24 in a few days.

At what age do QB's reach their prime? I've always heard 28-32. I guess it's the right balance where the mental is all there and the physical hasn't deteriorated too much.

Now, I know you can talk about Darnold with this and say "look see he hasn't peaked either lets hold onto him for another 4 years, derp, derp!" to which I say Darnold has already proven he's not it in the NFL. Maybe he can develop more, but the ceiling is real low.

tldr - I think it's a premature to declare someone has hit their ceiling just because they are 24.

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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5 hours ago, 45catfan said:

So Pickett averaged roughly a fumble every other game.  Who cares that his team was able to recover over half of them.  The point is how often he put the ball on the ground!  Now take into account our OL situation and the LT we are passing up to draft Mr. dwarf-hands. Pitts OL was decent too, no?  Does this really seem like a good idea????

It's really worth noting that Justin fields  had 11 fumbles in 2 years with OSU.  He averaged roughly a fumble every other game (22 games I think).  Pits OL was good this year, yes, where Pickett had many fewer fumbles (3 in 13 games)... The last two years he's also had 10 fumbles in 22 games.  

So as much as I don't want Pickett it's not because of turnovers.  I just don't think he has a high enough ceiling.  Decent athleticism and decent arm strength, but that's not good enough imo to lead a franchise. I think his ceiling is a more athletic Derek Carr at best, and at 6 I'd rather do better...

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