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Tropical Storm Ian

jayboogieman

By jayboogieman,
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beo Grand Master

beo

Posted
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its almost done with the EWRC now, itll probably have time to strengthen more just before it comes ashore. likely low end cat 4. very large in diameter too, im expecting to see the hurricane warnings shifted south at 11. quite a few tornado warnings have popped up so far too.
 

 
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beo Grand Master

beo

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9 minutes ago, stirs said:

Seems to continue to inch east with every report

the NHC must be in a state of abject chaos right now 

1272728824_giphy-downsized-large(1).gif.f125e6b93030ee1b3adceb9308ec1526.gif
it could actually end up going east of even fort meyers now. people would've thought you were a madman if you said this yesterday. its probably gonna start intensifying again shortly.

goes16_ir_09L_202209272352.thumb.gif.7f78acf64202defa23c1a88dbc8ccf00.gif

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beo Grand Master

beo

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Well this is pretty much devolving into the worst case scenario. Slow moving cat 4 supplemented by one of the worst forecast errors in recent memory. The area south of Bonita didn't even have a hurricane warning until 5PM and they may very well receive the eyewall.

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Shocker Grand Master

Shocker

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34 minutes ago, MillionDollarCam said:

I live in Orlando and it was pretty eerie out today. Lots of people preparing but kind of quiet as in not the normal loud tourist city that it normally is.

Expecting to lose power so I’m stocked up on water, would prefer to not have flooding, obviously.

My mother lives in the Villages about 45 mins away from Orlando and I am legit worried for her

Prayers to you and your family

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MillionDollarCam Grand Master

MillionDollarCam

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9 minutes ago, Shocker said:

My mother lives in the Villages about 45 mins away from Orlando and I am legit worried for her

Prayers to you and your family

We just received a new update and we’re expecting a direct hit. Luckily it looks the storm is speeding up so hopefully that helps with the flooding. Unfortunately they are pretty much guaranteeing that we will lose power.

I hope your mother stays safe.

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beo Grand Master

beo

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 up to 140 mph and 942 mbar at 5 am. looks like it's gonna try and make a run at cat 5 before landfall later today... flight level winds already strong enough to support a 5, just a matter of the surface level winds catching up. the slight jaunts in any given direction are going to continue up to landfall as well so it's hard to know where exactly it'll come ashore.  hearts out to everyone in the path of this thing

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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About 2 months ago my parents moved down there about 45 minutes outside of Sarasota. Moved nextdoor to my brother and sister-in-law who have lived down there for maybe 12 years. 

They might be having second thoughts about the move. They're all stocked up and have been spending the better part of a week getting things on their small farm ready, but the way this thing is sounding I don't know how much you can be prepared for it.

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beo Grand Master

beo

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officially up to 155mph but you could make a real argument for 160mph based on some of the data coming out of it... the NHC is bearish about giving storms the upgrade to a 5. The speed at which that eyewall replacement cycle occured earlier has helped spur this; most of them don't complete so quickly. Regardless it has 5-6 hours left until landfall so there's still time for some further intensification. Looks we're looking at the 6th ever landfalling category 5 hurricane in US history. This one could end up putting up Harvey/Katrina numbers in terms of cost when it's all set and done.

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jayboogieman Grand Master

jayboogieman

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9 hours ago, MillionDollarCam said:

I live in Orlando and it was pretty eerie out today. Lots of people preparing but kind of quiet as in not the normal loud tourist city that it normally is.

Expecting to lose power so I’m stocked up on water, would prefer to not have flooding, obviously.

 

8 hours ago, Shocker said:

My mother lives in the Villages about 45 mins away from Orlando and I am legit worried for her

Prayers to you and your family

 

1 hour ago, rayzor said:

About 2 months ago my parents moved down there about 45 minutes outside of Sarasota. Moved nextdoor to my brother and sister-in-law who have lived down there for maybe 12 years. 

I hope you and your families stay safe.

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