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I am not a stat head but I believe taking 4th down conversions would be considered a small sample size. Looking at the actual play, if it involved a throw especially, and assessing the difficulty of making that throw for the average player gives you a good idea. Have we not seen throwaways on 4th down? When if you had no play you could just chuck it deep and hope if your guy doesn’t get it the defense is dumb enough to catch it. -
I remember in a Super Bowl season for them, New England took an opening week ass whipping from the Bills. You see this type of stuff quite often early in the season. An eventual playoff team losing to a bottom dweller that comes out strong, isn’t that rare.
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There is definitely a don’t fug up factor to winning in the NFL. In a true parity situation making the fewest mistakes is probably the number one factor in the outcome. I would add that in most jobs if you just handle the simple really easy to do poo like being on time and dressing properly, you are more than halfway secure.
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