Behind the scenes in the front office

[Martin]

18 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Fan Duel has this a bit closer.

I don’t bet. How does a -150 work? Why would you bet 150 to win 100? It’s a guaranteed loss of 50. Obviously I’m missing something here.

[Ryano1974]

5 minutes ago, Martin said:

I don’t bet. How does a -150 work? Why would you bet 150 to win 100? It’s a guaranteed loss of 50. Obviously I’m missing something here.

You don’t have to pay 150$ unless you lose.  If you take the bet you either win $100 or lose $150.  

[MHS831]

7 minutes ago, Martin said:

I don’t bet. How does a -150 work? Why would you bet 150 to win 100? It’s a guaranteed loss of 50. Obviously I’m missing something here.

I do not either---I THINK it is based on a bet of 100 dollars.  If the odds were -150, if you bet $100, you would win $66.67 and get your $100 back.  If the bet was +150, you would win $150 + your initial $100 investment ($250).

This is a great site to teach the concept.  It is how I understand it:

https://www.oddsshark.com/tools/odds-calculator

[MHS831]

27 minutes ago, Martin said:

I don’t bet. How does a -150 work? Why would you bet 150 to win 100? It’s a guaranteed loss of 50. Obviously I’m missing something here.

If using the information from the chart I gave you, it basically states the following:

CJ Stroud (-140) being drafted first overall--the implied odds give him a 58.33% chance

Bryce Young (+110) being drafted first overall--the implied odds give him a 47.62% chance

 

Just a few weeks ago, Fan Duel had Stroud's implied odds at 73.97% and Young's implied odds at 32.26%

Edited April 9, 2023 by MHS831

[mrcompletely11]

6 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

If using the information from the chart I gave you, it basically states the following:

CJ Stroud (-140) being drafted first overall--the implied odds give him a 58.33% chance

Bryce Young (+110) being drafted first overall--the implied odds give him a 47.62% chance

I dont gamble but do we know how vegas weighs this? 

[MHS831]

14 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I dont gamble but do we know how vegas weighs this? 

I really do not know--I just repeated about 10 minutes worth of googling like a parrot.  I think I understand it on the surface..

[BeenPounding]

On 4/4/2023 at 8:55 PM, ECHornet said:

If we find a franchise QB, adding the 2025 1st to the package we gave up would still easily be worth it. 

If we make the playoffs in a weak NFC South we are giving up at worst the 18th pick.  I'm ok with that trade off

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I dont gamble but do we know how vegas weighs this? 

Odds aren't about predicting results as much as they are about spreading their liability. They want money relatively evenly spread out across their liabilities.

[*FreeFua*]

2 hours ago, Martin said:

I don’t bet. How does a -150 work? Why would you bet 150 to win 100? It’s a guaranteed loss of 50. Obviously I’m missing something here.

So yeah 

-150 means you have to bet $150 to win $100. So you put down $150 and your return would be $250 on a winning bet

+150 means if you bet $100 you win $150. So if you put down $100 your return is $250 on a winning bet

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I really do not know--I just repeated about 10 minutes worth of googling like a parrot.  I think I understand it on the surface..

Those Vegas odd are a lot closer now and I think the secret is out. I expect Young to be -120 to -130 by weeks end. 
 

On another note I grabbed Will Anderson at +2200 to go 2nd overall. He’s now +450. Unless someone trades up I really do think Houston goes Anderson

[Ivory Panther]

16 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

So yeah 

-150 means you have to bet $150 to win $100. So you put down $150 and your return would be $250 on a winning bet

+150 means if you bet $100 you win $150. So if you put down $100 your return is $250 on a winning bet

Those Vegas odd are a lot closer now and I think the secret is out. I expect Young to be -120 to -130 by weeks end. 
 

On another note I grabbed Will Anderson at +2200 to go 2nd overall. He’s now +450. Unless someone trades up I really do think Houston goes Anderson

Yes, if Carolina takes Bryce I can see Houston take Anderson.

interesting how they seem very low on CJ as a fanbase as well.

[Martin]

1 hour ago, *FreeFua* said:

So yeah 

-150 means you have to bet $150 to win $100. So you put down $150 and your return would be $250 on a winning bet

+150 means if you bet $100 you win $150. So if you put down $100 your return is $250 on a winning bet

Those Vegas odd are a lot closer now and I think the secret is out. I expect Young to be -120 to -130 by weeks end. 
 

On another note I grabbed Will Anderson at +2200 to go 2nd overall. He’s now +450. Unless someone trades up I really do think Houston goes Anderson

Thank you. It is such a weird logic for me. Back in the day when betting on stuff the odds were a simple multiplier. E.g. if the odds were 2.5 you got you betting amount x 2.5.  So $100 turned in to $250. Sooooooo much easier in my mind. But I also use the metric system…

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, *FreeFua* said:

So yeah 

-150 means you have to bet $150 to win $100. So you put down $150 and your return would be $250 on a winning bet

+150 means if you bet $100 you win $150. So if you put down $100 your return is $250 on a winning bet

Those Vegas odd are a lot closer now and I think the secret is out. I expect Young to be -120 to -130 by weeks end. 
 

On another note I grabbed Will Anderson at +2200 to go 2nd overall. He’s now +450. Unless someone trades up I really do think Houston goes Anderson

Houston has 12 draft picks in this draft and 10 next year, including 2 first rounders.  While they have many needs, it is possible that they could take Anderson and then trade up with Arizona and still get them both.