Going "Young"

[Mr. Scot]

Longtime football watchers would tell you that "going young" is something that usually happens when a team is in "rebuilding" mode. Indeed, there are some who have applied that idea to the Panthers.

Such a notion, however, would be mistaken.

A coach who is in a do-or-die season can't afford to commit to a rebuilding program. Fox needs to win this season to either earn an extension or get a job as a head coach elsewhere. "Preparing for the next coach" some say. Not likely. No coach is going to lay the foundation for his successor at the cost of his own job.

Conspiracy theorists say Jerry Richardson is trying to tank the season so that Fox will be forced to leave. Again, unlikely. Richardson had the chance to let Fox go, and didn't, choosing instead to give him a year to prove himself. Tanking the team's season just to get rid of a coach who you could have gotten rid of more easily by other means sounds like a page out of the playbook of a goofy "Dr Evil" type villain.

Forget the wild theories and just take it at face value. The team is dumping big contracts and older players. I've said before that the team had made some poor choices when it picked some of the "building blocks" before. They may now agree, and the uncapped year is a prime opportunity to fix those old mistakes. In my opinion, that's exactly what they're doing.

To be clear though, that does not mean they're giving up on this season.

Teams have gone to Super Bowls with young rosters before (Cowboys of the 90s, for example, were one of the younger teams in the league). Throw in that the front office last year assembled a defensive coaching staff that was known primarily for teaching young players. It's entirely possible the "youth movement" had already begun last year, but couldn't be fully consummated until this season due to cap restrictions.

With that said, I don't expect the team to go completely young.

No, they aren't diving into the free agent market early (which should be no surprise since they rarely do) but the latter half of the offseason is a time when a fair number of veteran players wind up looking for jobs. As often as not, those guys come for cheap salaries.

They also could get guys like Tyler Brayton, Richard Marshall and Josh McCown back if no one else signs them (and so far, no one has). Brayton was made an offer, Marshall has an RFA tender and McCown is talked about as a "fall back plan". Obviously, all these guys are under consideration.

Beyond that, the Panthers won't want to be completely devoid of veteran leadership on the field. With that in mind, look for them to be more active in the "bargain" period of free agency. Also, per their usual MO, look for them to shop primarily for mid-level vets and role players rather than "name" guys.

While you're at it, don't make the mistake of thinking that the team doesn't care about winning just because they don't go after this guy or that guy. Winning is always the ultimate goal, but owners, coaches and GMs don't always follow the same thinking as fans when it comes to how to accomplish that goal.

If the much-discussed lockout doesn't happen, the Panthers will be in a prime position moving forward. They'll be a young team with salary cap room to spare. That's a good spot for a returning coach to continue with, or an attractive spot for a young coach who's ready to put his stamp on his first head coaching job.

It all depends on what happens this year.

[CharlotteBeer.com]

Very well said, Mr. Scot. Especially this part:

Conspiracy theorists say Jerry Richardson is trying to tank the season so that Fox will be forced to leave. Again, unlikely. Richardson had the chance to let Fox go, and didn't, choosing instead to give him a year to prove himself. Tanking the team's season just to get rid of a coach who you could have gotten rid of more easily by other means sounds like a page out of the playbook of a goofy "Dr Evil" type villain.

I agree completely with this. Why would the owner of the team sabotage the coach, when he could let him go at any point? You're right -- winning is always the goal (unless you're Al Davis), and though I'd like to see some of the players stick around (Brayton, Hoover and Moose) I'm sure the front office is trying to field a winning squad for 2010, even if they're doing it on the cheap.

[KillerKat]

Plus going young now extends the window of opportunity for winning the big one by a greater number of years.

[Mr. Scot]

Heck, even Al Davis wants to win. He just hasn't got a clue how to do it.

Dan Snyder finally realized he didn't either, so he's letting someone else run things now.

(Shanahan and Allen probably have to tackle him and hogtie him to keep him from running to his checkbook every time a big name free agent is mentioned)

[Wither]

Very well said, Mr. Scot. Especially this part:

I agree completely with this. Why would the owner of the team sabotage the coach, when he could let him go at any point? You're right -- winning is always the goal (unless you're Al Davis), and though I'd like to see some of the players stick around (Brayton, Hoover and Moose) I'm sure the front office is trying to field a winning squad for 2010, even if they're doing it on the cheap.

I hinted at this line of thought in my wall-of-text post in the "What the hell happened thread." It's just completely stupid to think that is even remotely possible (that JR is doing that).

[Rags]

I always enjoy reading your post Mr. Scot. This one was no exception.

+Rep

[Ricky Spanish]

very well put. I really hope that they re-sign brayton. All he wants to do is play for us. i always figured they get roll playing vets later on in the offseason, I just didn't put together that they'd be doing it post draft due to cuts for younger players.

[panthers55]

It is clear we are going cheap and young. Whether that works out or not is very much in doubt. Dallas of the 90s isn't a great example because they were able to leverage a trade for Herschel Walker in 1989 into a bunch of picks. Here is how it went:

Minnesota got:

RB Herschel Walker

Dallas's 3rd round pick - 1990 (54) (Mike Jones)

San Diego's 5th round pick - 1990 (116) (Reggie Thornton)

Dallas's 10th round pick - 1990 (249) (Pat Newman)

Dallas's 3rd round pick - 1991 (68) (Jake Reed

Dallas got:

LB Jesse Solomon

LB David Howard

CB Issiac Holt

RB Darrin Nelson (traded to San Diego after he refused to report to Dallas)

DE Alex Stewart

Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1990 (21) (traded this pick along with pick (81) for pick (17) from Pittsburgh to draft Emmitt Smith)

Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1990 (47) (Alexander Wright)

Minnesota's 6th round pick in 1990 (158) (traded to New Orleans, who drafted James Williams)

Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1991 (conditional) - (12) (Alvin Harper)

Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1991 (conditional) - (38) (Dixon Edwards)

Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1992 (conditional) - (37) (Darren Woodson)

Minnesota's 3rd round pick in 1992 (conditional) - (71) (traded to New England, who drafted Kevin Turner)

Minnesota's 1st round pick in 1993 (conditional) - (13) (traded to Philadelphia Eagles, and then to the Houston Oilers, who drafted Brad Hopkins)

With numerous holes and only 5 draft picks we don't have the luxury of picking up a bunch of guys who will start or even contribute immediately.

Which brings us to free agency. The problem with going young is that we aren't alone in doing that. Many of the free agents out there are older players being dumped just like we are. In years past teams coveted the veterans and alot of young talented players not yet ready to start could be picked up off waivers during the preseason like we did with Moore. I wonder how many quality guys will be there as other teams are dumping older guys as well and holding onto more of their young guys. It makes no sense for us to pick up other team's older players when we are dumping our own.

Going young is a big gamble particularly when you have to not only find your starters but also find your backups from this talent pool. It could work out though if we stay healthy and don't have to press a bunch of guys into starter roles that were counted on for depth only. Plus you are counting on guys who you aren't sure how they will react to the pressure and stress because they haven't been there.

I don't think there is a conspiracy theory or intent to sabotage anyone. But that doesn't mean everything will turn out great either. It could go either way. I wonder what the criteria will be to evaluate Hurney or Fox given that their toolbox has been diminished somewhat. If we go 8-8 will that be seen differently than it was last year when we returned 21 of 22 starters. Is it that we expect to do better or does Richardson postulate that if we are going to go 8-8 at least get rid of all the deal weight and big name contracts.

I do wonder how committed Richarson is to winning now on the field. Up to this year I would say he was committed alot, but he never did anything this radical either. The question to me is whether Richardson is so focused on the CBA and possible lockout, that every other decision is based on that rather than in year's past when it was on getting better. Most of these cost cutting moves seem as much motivated by the CBA than they do any attempt to improve the talent on the team.

[Sloth]

Heck, even Al Davis wants to win. He just hasn't got a clue how to do it.

Dan Snyder finally realized he didn't either, so he's letting someone else run things now.

(Shanahan and Allen probably have to tackle him and hogtie him to keep him from running to his checkbook every time a big name free agent is mentioned)

Pretty sure Snyder said the same thing when he hired Shotty. It lasted a season before he started tinkering again.

I see what the team is doing and disagree with the timing. Tampa is in a wonderful spot to do something like this, as are the Patriots, because they have a stockpile of picks with which to bolster their roster. We have no 1st and five picks total. We're very much needing to hit a grand slam not only in the draft, but in the second tier of free agency AND we need to count on a bunch of backup/role-players having very good years.

No conspiracy, no one is tanking the season, we just positioned ourselves badly for the uncapped year. We're a worse team right now than we were last year, but it's still early in the off-season. We'll see.

[carolinanimal]

The problem with what we are doing is that we have essentially painted ourselves in a corner. being active for peices in the fa market allows you to be more flexible in the draft. the way we are now we cant afford to have any busts at all in the draft and anyone that knows anything about the draft knows that it is a crapshoot sometimes. our whole season could depend on how good this draft is.

also what "mid-level" fas are out there? the ones we just let go? that would be a joke. why would we cut a guy who started for us just to bring them back as a backup? if they came back they probably would start again.

[GRWatcher]

Only going young? I think it's more than that.

Which brings us to free agency. The problem with going young is that we aren't alone in doing that. Many of the free agents out there are older players being dumped just like we are. In years past teams coveted the veterans and alot of young talented players not yet ready to start could be picked up off waivers during the preseason like we did with Moore. I wonder how many quality guys will be there as other teams are dumping older guys as well and holding onto more of their young guys. It makes no sense for us to pick up other team's older players when we are dumping our own.

I've had this thought too, not talking about Peppers or Delhomme. I don't want to hear that we got rid of old average players in favor of young average players. Average is backups not starters.

Beyond that, the Panthers won't want to be completely devoid of veteran leadership on the field. With that in mind, look for them to be more active in the "bargain" period of free agency. Also, per their usual MO, look for them to shop primarily for mid-level vets and role players rather than "name" guys.

This is exactly how we acquired the starters we cut. If they were good enough to be starters where the young guys hadn't beat them out for the starting positions, the only criteria in the cuts was age. And that there would be no cap hit because there is no cap.

I do wonder how committed Richarson is to winning now on the field. Up to this year I would say he was committed alot, but he never did anything this radical either. The question to me is whether Richardson is so focused on the CBA and possible lockout, that every other decision is based on that rather than in year's past when it was on getting better. Most of these cost cutting moves seem as much motivated by the CBA than they do any attempt to improve the talent on the team.

I also question the FO's & JR's reasoning behind these moves. I'll believe otherwise once we have a significant signing of a multiyear contract or we extend our own "young" players. They're almost treating the Panthers like a college team. The Danny Morrison movement? idk

[MadHatter]

The problem with what we are doing is that we have essentially painted ourselves in a corner. being active for peices in the fa market allows you to be more flexible in the draft. the way we are now we cant afford to have any busts at all in the draft and anyone that knows anything about the draft knows that it is a crapshoot sometimes. our whole season could depend on how good this draft is.

also what "mid-level" fas are out there? the ones we just let go? that would be a joke. why would we cut a guy who started for us just to bring them back as a backup? if they came back they probably would start again.

That is exactly the point...there are no decent FA's out there. Therfore, we sit a nd wait.

We were not going to over-pay for mediocre players.

The mid level FA's will be released after the draft to make room for the draft picks.

Early in Free Agency, you have:

1. A few big name players

2. Alot of bad and aging players that were cut early on

3. Some solid players in a typical year. However, with no CBA, all of the FA's that were set to hit the market after 4 yrs of svc immediately became RFA.

Therefore, this early FA class is very weak. That means that teams will overpay to get the best of a mediocre group. The rest out there is camp fodder.

We will sign vets that are released after the draft.

[MadHatter]

Longtime football watchers would tell you that "going young" is something that usually happens when a team is in "rebuilding" mode. Indeed, there are some who have applied that idea to the Panthers.

Such a notion, however, would be mistaken.

A coach who is in a do-or-die season can't afford to commit to a rebuilding program. Fox needs to win this season to either earn an extension or get a job as a head coach elsewhere. "Preparing for the next coach" some say. Not likely. No coach is going to lay the foundation for his successor at the cost of his own job.

Conspiracy theorists say Jerry Richardson is trying to tank the season so that Fox will be forced to leave. Again, unlikely. Richardson had the chance to let Fox go, and didn't, choosing instead to give him a year to prove himself. Tanking the team's season just to get rid of a coach who you could have gotten rid of more easily by other means sounds like a page out of the playbook of a goofy "Dr Evil" type villain.

Forget the wild theories and just take it at face value. The team is dumping big contracts and older players. I've said before that the team had made some poor choices when it picked some of the "building blocks" before. They may now agree, and the uncapped year is a prime opportunity to fix those old mistakes. In my opinion, that's exactly what they're doing.

To be clear though, that does not mean they're giving up on this season.

Teams have gone to Super Bowls with young rosters before (Cowboys of the 90s, for example, were one of the younger teams in the league). Throw in that the front office last year assembled a defensive coaching staff that was known primarily for teaching young players. It's entirely possible the "youth movement" had already begun last year, but couldn't be fully consummated until this season due to cap restrictions.

With that said, I don't expect the team to go completely young.

No, they aren't diving into the free agent market early (which should be no surprise since they rarely do) but the latter half of the offseason is a time when a fair number of veteran players wind up looking for jobs. As often as not, those guys come for cheap salaries.

They also could get guys like Tyler Brayton, Richard Marshall and Josh McCown back if no one else signs them (and so far, no one has). Brayton was made an offer, Marshall has an RFA tender and McCown is talked about as a "fall back plan". Obviously, all these guys are under consideration.

Beyond that, the Panthers won't want to be completely devoid of veteran leadership on the field. With that in mind, look for them to be more active in the "bargain" period of free agency. Also, per their usual MO, look for them to shop primarily for mid-level vets and role players rather than "name" guys.

While you're at it, don't make the mistake of thinking that the team doesn't care about winning just because they don't go after this guy or that guy. Winning is always the ultimate goal, but owners, coaches and GMs don't always follow the same thinking as fans when it comes to how to accomplish that goal.

If the much-discussed lockout doesn't happen, the Panthers will be in a prime position moving forward. They'll be a young team with salary cap room to spare. That's a good spot for a returning coach to continue with, or an attractive spot for a young coach who's ready to put his stamp on his first head coaching job.

It all depends on what happens this year.

Mr Scott.....you stated that Brayton had received an offer. Do you have any more details on that...who, how much? I was searching the itnernet and was unable to find anything.

Thanks

[carolinanimal]

That is exactly the point...there are no decent FA's out there. Therfore, we sit a nd wait.

We were not going to over-pay for mediocre players.

The mid level FA's will be released after the draft to make room for the draft picks.

Early in Free Agency, you have:

1. A few big name players

2. Alot of bad and aging players that were cut early on

3. Some solid players in a typical year. However, with no CBA, all of the FA's that were set to hit the market after 4 yrs of svc immediately became RFA.

Therefore, this early FA class is very weak. That means that teams will overpay to get the best of a mediocre group. The rest out there is camp fodder.

We will sign vets that are released after the draft.

this still paints us into a corner. we know 1 pick will have to be a wr. that leaves 4 picks for defense. maybe even one for backup qb. we will need a de. one dt at least. the rest will have to be fa's. dont forget there will be competition for the fa's unlike in the draft. drafting for immediate need is risky.