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Panthers start making cuts to roster

TheSpecialJuan
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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, shaqattaq said:

Obviously, all "stacked" comments need to come with the disclaimer "compared to last year". I said elsewhere that when your coming from historically shitty... average looks really, really good! All 3 of those positions are light years ahead of the 2024 season! And that's good enough for me...for now.

Yeah, compared solely to the 2024 Panthers, it does look definitively improved.

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PNW_PantherMan Grand Master

PNW_PantherMan

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Posted
6 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Sorta related.  I just looked up a stat:  Success rates for NFL draft's second rounders.  I was surprised that it is 49%.  The success rate for first rounders is 58%.   Here success does not mean those that did not bust, it means that roughly half of the players selected in the second round become full-time starters at some point in their careers.  Busts do that too.  However, considering the fact that a first round talent is worth up to 1800 points (first overall pick) more than the first pick of the second round and as low as 350 points (last pick in first round) higher than the last pick in round 2, it seems there could be cases in which it would be to your advantage to trade out of round 1 and draft two or three second rounders for the value.  Of course, the elite players are likely to be gone, and some positions overwhelmingly suck after round 1 (traditionally, like QB or LT, for example), but if you need to find starters at positions like DT, G, LB, S, C, TE, RB, etc, there could be a time when you trade back for more starters.  I was surprised that the margin between rounds 1 and 2 was only 9%.   

While I realize that some of you sofa scholars are thinking, "Well duh?  Trading back gives you more players." as you wipe the Cheetos off your shirt.  Not the point.  The point is you have to consider the draft,the needs (and the number of them), and you need to scout the second and third rounds like you do the first, the cap, and the long-term impact.  If you can find 2 players with a 49% chance of becoming a starter, are you better off than drafting one player who has a 58% chance in the long term?

So if I traded away my first rounder for two second rounders (a trade most teams would make) regularly, when I got 10 second rounders (by trading 5 first rounders), 5 would be starters.  If I did not trade and kept my 5 first rounders, 3 would be starters.  Furthermore, their rookie contracts would be much cheaper than the 5 first rounders. 

math addition GIF

It's all true.  You just need ownership that buys in and understands the law of averages.  You could easily do this, make well informed selections, and then just get super unlucky 2 years in a row.  Now you're fired and someone else gets to inherit the players you picked.

I highly recommend this if you haven't watched it.  

 

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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3 hours ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

It's all true.  You just need ownership that buys in and understands the law of averages.  You could easily do this, make well informed selections, and then just get super unlucky 2 years in a row.  Now you're fired and someone else gets to inherit the players you picked.

I highly recommend this if you haven't watched it.  

 

There is a real science to it that involves math and if you don't know the language, you are history (see what I did there?) .  You need soldiers before you need generals--Morgan did a great job in this draft, imo.  He wanted to trade back--more picks.  Yes, most of the picks will not pan out, but most of the NFL starters were not first round picks.  Free agency is like dealing with a loan shark to make the house payment--you have to draft strategically.

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