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JJ Jansen on tanking


Mr. Scot
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9 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

So we should have sold off all of our talent and what?  Allowed Fitt to have an excuse to stay longer and use all that draft capital.  He was pretty bad at drafting...  I feel like we were going to struggle regardless until we got the right staff here.  Hopefully Tillis, Morgan, and Canales are the right group.

Both Rams 1st rounders would have been Morgan’s picks. Also, if we didn’t have to trade the boat for Young, the 1st overall pick we gave away would have also been Morgan’s pick as Fitterer tied his future to Young and Young’s rookie year with Reich was going to tank Fitterer regardless. There would be no excuse to keep him longer.

Also am I in the twilight zone here? Should have sold off all our talent? Are Moore, Burns and CMC still on the roster now? I feel like I would have noticed them last season.

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7 hours ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Tank for Tua

Tank for Trevor

Suck for Luck

All of those worked out so well.  

 

All 3 of them played in the playoffs. Tua is 38-24. We are 24-60 since Tua’s been in the league. Lol at Luck being a bad pick. I love Cam but Luck has more playoff wins and more pro bowls even with his injuries, missed years and early retirement.

How about the Texans trading away their stars for a bunch of firsts and starting Davis Mills for two years to get the #2 pick with no trade up and selecting Stroud? See, if you pick the right QB it can work.

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3 minutes ago, WhoKnows said:

Both Rams 1st rounders would have been Morgan’s picks. Also, if we didn’t have to trade the boat for Young, the 1st overall pick we gave away would have also been Morgan’s pick as Fitterer tied his future to Young and Young’s rookie year with Reich was going to tank Fitterer regardless. There would be no excuse to keep him longer.

Also am I in the twilight zone here? Should have sold off all our talent? Are Moore, Burns and CMC still on the roster now? I feel like I would have noticed them last season.

You’re assuming Fitt still gets fired at the same time. That’s the problem with all these hypothetical hindsight thoughts. If we had a fire sale so to speak I’m not sure the GM gets fired a year or two later due to a bad roster and bad record. Fitt went into win now mode, made it seem like we were only a QB away “we won’t drafting this high again” trading picks for vets etc and when he couldn’t show results he was fired. I’m sure this was all mentioned in his GM interviews. What’s his plan to turn us around and how quickly can he do it.
Also you want last year’s CMC and Burns on our roster? At their price? Moving on from both was the right call, with Burns being the wrong time. If a team does a full roster strip down rebuild it can buy the GM more time as long as everyone is on the same page. 

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10 hours ago, Icege said:

Aaand this confirms the core disconnect.

You view tanking as a guaranteed payoff with no organizational risk, even under a GM you didn't trust. That's not strategic thinking... that's revisionist certainty.

"No risk when you're that bad" is also a wild take when the team under Wilks rallied and was almost able to steal a playoff spot in a weak NFC South. That wasn't nothing... it was proof that the locker room still had fight.

It was nothing. It was a nice run in an easy schedule that did nothing but lose us DJ Moore and a lot more. We were 2-15 in 2023. Based on your logic, that winning finish should have been a launching point.

For as much as you want to say we shouldn’t have taken a risk, you still can’t admit that the plans we tankers laid out were proven correct. There’s no revisionist history. We said we should have traded Burns to the Rams. We said we should have sold off anything not bolted down like Brown and Horn and even Icky because they were in the 5 year plan. There is no disconnect, we tried to keep winning and draft a rookie QB and we lost about 4 1st round picks of value that could have been given to the guys you think might be the right crew.

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5 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

You’re assuming Fitt still gets fired at the same time. That’s the problem with all these hypothetical hindsight thoughts. If we had a fire sale so to speak I’m not sure the GM gets fired a year or two later due to a bad roster and bad record. Fitt went into win now mode, made it seem like we were only a QB away “we won’t drafting this high again” trading picks for vets etc and when he couldn’t show results he was fired. I’m sure this was all mentioned in his GM interviews. What’s his plan to turn us around and how quickly can he do it.
Also you want last year’s CMC and Burns on our roster? At their price? Moving on from both was the right call, with Burns being the wrong time. If a team does a full roster strip down rebuild it can buy the GM more time as long as everyone is on the same page. 

Yes. Fitt said he liked Young for two years. He hitched his wagon to him. Reich and Young were going 2-15, nothing I said we should get would have saved him. A new coach plus Tepper (and Morgan) would have wanted the draft assets we kept or got to be used by a better GM/Coach.

SMH, you need to read my post and your own again. You said:

“So we should have sold off all of our talent and what?”

I was being sarcastic that they still were in the roster because the guys you are saying we shouldn’t have sold off got sold off anyway but instead of getting full value, we got scraps. We had an opportunity to sell at the highs and instead we let the stocks lose 50-75% and then sold them. Because we didn’t tank in 2022 when the Rams basically handed the idea to us, we either set the team back several years to where we won’t do anything and will be back at the drawing board or kept enough talent off the team that we may make the playoffs but we still won’t be a top team like an extra handful of 1st rounders could have gotten us.

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5 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

It was nothing. It was a nice run in an easy schedule that did nothing but lose us DJ Moore and a lot more. We were 2-15 in 2023. Based on your logic, that winning finish should have been a launching point.

For as much as you want to say we shouldn’t have taken a risk, you still can’t admit that the plans we tankers laid out were proven correct. There’s no revisionist history. We said we should have traded Burns to the Rams. We said we should have sold off anything not bolted down like Brown and Horn and even Icky because they were in the 5 year plan. There is no disconnect, we tried to keep winning and draft a rookie QB and we lost about 4 1st round picks of value that could have been given to the guys you think might be the right crew.

How can your plan that has been laid out be correct when it involves the GM making the right moves and still getting fired so that a new, more capable front office and coaching staff can takeover?

That is a fantasy that you're trying to present as reallty.

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5 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

Yes. Fitt said he liked Young for two years. He hitched his wagon to him. Reich and Young were going 2-15, nothing I said we should get would have saved him. A new coach plus Tepper (and Morgan) would have wanted the draft assets we kept or got to be used by a better GM/Coach.

SMH, you need to read my post and your own again. You said:

“So we should have sold off all of our talent and what?”

I was being sarcastic that they still were in the roster because the guys you are saying we shouldn’t have sold off got sold off anyway but instead of getting full value, we got scraps. We had an opportunity to sell at the highs and instead we let the stocks lose 50-75% and then sold them. Because we didn’t tank in 2022 when the Rams basically handed the idea to us, we either set the team back several years to where we won’t do anything and will be back at the drawing board or kept enough talent off the team that we may make the playoffs but we still won’t be a top team like an extra handful of 1st rounders could have gotten us.

We missed on Burns at his peak value. That’s the problem with trading for picks 2-3 years away (which people were convinced the Rams would suck by now and these would be higher picks btw). Each year away the pick is the further in value it drops. Fitt was clearly hired based on turning us around quickly. It’s one of the many reasons tanking isn’t really a thing as our player JJ is telling you in this original article. It would take the whole organization from the owners down admitting they aren’t winning soon with Burns and picks 2-3 years away having more value because that’s when we are still rebuilding. It would only make sense if Fitt had a longer leash and would more than likely be the ones making these picks anyway which you wouldn’t want.

The question is would you rather have those Rams picks with the strong possibility of Fitt still being here or would you rather Fitt try to “win now” like he did and expedite his firing? Altering the timeline would affect more than just the Rams picks. 

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Im not firm on many things football, but this statement or belief or strategy I am 100% for.

Full Offseason the goal is to make the playoffs.

Week 1, 1000% I want to win.

Weeks 2-10,  1000% I want to win.

Until the math stats 0.000000000% chance at NO playoffs, I want to win.

*Once* there's no chance at the playoffs, I want to 100% lose every game until the end.

You are still loser at 2-15 or 5-12, I want to never lose like this again. I want the best value for losing and suffering.

Again the only goal is playoffs. Once in the playoffs anything can happen, I want to win the whole dam show. If you happen to lose in the first round, that's perfectly fine and lets work hard this upcoming off-season to get another chance to make them. 

This is the ONLY way to play in the NFL. Anyone not understanding this method of strategy, please call your doctor for a visit...

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Interestingly I think we have kind of of gone through this as an organization. Richardson implemented an FO driven tank. Bad roster, no cash spent, coach uninterested. It may have been for different reasons but I think the results were the same. A team that wasn't going to win many if any games. We ended up with the #1 pick. Cam Newton came in and changed the franchise. It worked, but Cam himself pointed to the losing culture in the locker room needing to be changed. It probably took about 2-3 years for that to happen. Tank worked pretty damn well for us. Cam is one of one. Not another like him, everyone can't deliver on his draft status AND change a culture basically on his own. 

So as an exercise here are the last 30 #1 picks. If you tanked and got to pick #1 how many of these guys do you think were worth it? Not just good players, but franchise changers. Guys who will take your culture and shift it so the tank was actually worth it. I would say maybe 9 or 10 guys would be worth a tank, pending the last 5 picks? 

 

2025: Cam Ward (Miami (FL)) - Tennessee Titans
2024: Caleb Williams (USC) – Chicago Bears
2023: Bryce Young (Alabama) – Carolina Panthers
2022: Travon Walker (Georgia) – Jacksonville Jaguars
2021: Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) – Jacksonville Jaguars
2020: Joe Burrow (LSU) – Cincinnati Bengals
2019: Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) – Arizona Cardinals
2018: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) – Cleveland Browns
2017: Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) – Cleveland Browns
2016: Jared Goff (California) – Los Angeles Rams
2015: Jameis Winston (Florida State) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2014: Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina) – Houston Texans
2013: Eric Fisher (Central Michigan) – Kansas City Chiefs
2012: Andrew Luck (Stanford) – Indianapolis Colts
2011: Cam Newton (Auburn) – Carolina Panthers
2010: Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) – St. Louis Rams
2009: Matthew Stafford (Georgia) – Detroit Lions
2008: Jake Long (Michigan) – Miami Dolphins
2007: JaMarcus Russell (LSU) – Oakland Raiders
2006: Mario Williams (North Carolina State) – Houston Texans
2005: Alex Smith (Utah) – San Francisco 49ers
2004: Eli Manning (Mississippi) – San Diego Chargers
2003: Carson Palmer (USC) – Cincinnati Bengals
2002: David Carr (Fresno State) – Houston Texans
2001: Michael Vick (Virginia Tech) – Atlanta Falcons
2000: Courtney Brown (Penn State) – Cleveland Browns
1999: Tim Couch (Kentucky) – Cleveland Browns
1998: Peyton Manning (Tennessee) – Indianapolis Colts
1997: Orlando Pace (Ohio State) – St. Louis Rams
1996: Keyshawn Johnson (USC) – New York Jets
1995: Ki-Jana Carter (Penn State) – Cincinnati Bengals

Edited by PanthersGTI
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