Barnwell - Ranking WR, TE, RB Groups in NFL

[SOJA]

There is no chance we are behind the seahawks, giants, patriots, browns, jets and saints 

That's insane

 

also the vikings have the best offense in the NFL outside of QB

[Davidson Deac II]

14 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

That's fine but you are just ignoring his logic behind because you just simply don't like it. That's your prerogative, certainly, but it doesn't invalidate his perspective.

I would say if you weight the groups similarly to how he does, it's very hard to justify us being outside the bottom 5. On paper our WR group is easily bottom 3 in the NFL and our TE groups is probably bottom 5 too. As good as our RB corps is, for a "weighted towards WR" ranking of WR/TE/RB groups, it's very hard to justify anything outside the bottom 5.

I don't see any reason to dispute it at all. These guys have to go out on the field and prove they are better than that. Nothing special about that scenario for a boatload if very unproven players. It just is what it is.

There is no lógic involved

[CRA]

1 hour ago, WUnderhill said:

Add a #1 receiver and 1000yd rusher to the 28th ranked unit, lose nobody of any value, and you get the 31st ranked unit? Makes no sense.

we didn't add a #1 WR in reality though.  We drafted a kid that has never stepped foot on a NFL field and we have never seen him log a single snap yet.  It's a lotto ticket.  New England adding a Diggs is going to carry way more weight. 

[WhoKnows]

21 hours ago, Pejorative Miscreant said:

I hear you, agree and found it surprising as well, but respectfully, what’s the difference?  Bottom tier until proven otherwise but I hope the players see all this and prove the writers incorrect .

Exactly. You’d think 2-7 wins a year (in a 17 game season no less) since 2017 is going to keep us bottom tier. Every year we say the same poo like we haven’t been a bad team the past 7 years. Until we prove we aren’t a bottom dweller, that’s where we’ll stay ranked. God forbid we have OL injuries like 2016.

[Panthers Addict]

I do think the rating is fair given how this unit hasn’t proven it with production. I understand you have to rank off production, not potential.

However, our unit is also in a position to make this rating look foolish a year from now. We have 4 guys in the WR/TE room who all could legitimately take the next step this year, and catapult our rank.

A guy under a lot of people’s radar after we took Tet, Jalen Coker. Mark my words, he will become the star of this room, and be the heir to Thielen.

[ClawOn]

Let's open with 4 or 5 offensive TDs against Jacksonville and see what the rankings are then. 

[WUnderhill]

4 hours ago, CRA said:

we didn't add a #1 WR in reality though.  We drafted a kid that has never stepped foot on a NFL field and we have never seen him log a single snap yet.  It's a lotto ticket.  New England adding a Diggs is going to carry way more weight. 

I don’t view Tmac as a lotto ticket. Size and hands translate, this isn’t some speed guy like John Ross getting over drafted based on a 40 time. Now, the 31yr old coming off a major knee injury, that’s like a $10 scratcher with a $5k jackpot. The list sucks.

[CRA]

18 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

I don’t view Tmac as a lotto ticket. Size and hands translate, this isn’t some speed guy like John Ross getting over drafted based on a 40 time. Now, the 31yr old coming off a major knee injury, that’s like a $10 scratcher with a $5k jackpot. The list sucks.

Bryce Young had a super high floor definitely at least won't be a bust safe pick we allegedly had seen in some time.......and went on to have one of the worst rookie seasons of all time.  They are all lotto picks.  And that is especially true for whatever they will be day 1 in the NFL. 

I don't think Tmac is a sure thing year 1.  It's not like we watched him do his thing in the SEC.  He was a PAC12 guy.  I'm sure it will take time

[TD alt]

5 hours ago, Davidson Deac II said:

There is no lógic involved

Now now now, I wouldn't say there is no logic, but there's just not a lot of in-depth thought put into Barnwell's  "analysis." Now to be fair to him (and other national writers), pre-season team rankings are basically clickbait. And...Barnwell, himself, said that "there's a lot of projection here." He basically admits that he doesn't know how the hell things are going to turn out with our receiver group. He also said that "I find myself" more intrigued by Coker than Legette; that does not mean that he said that fans should be, or that Coker will even be better than Legette (regardless of ESPN's per-route-run stat). So, yeah, Barnwell said some things, but even he has to basically admit that he doesn't know how bad or good that our playmakers will be in 2025. 

Overall, what Barnwell is basically thinking is that the Panthers have gotten worse at the offensive skill positions, and baked into that is that others have gotten better. That's the argument in July (meaning, please don't give this any more weight than it's due). I would personally be surprised (not shocked) if we end up worse than the Titans, Pats and Giants at least. Once you throw in the Bills, Giants, Jets, Steelers, and even the Chargers, I personally think there are several teams' skill groups that may end up ranked lower than ours by the end of 2025. 

@kungfoodudeis one of my dudes, but like others he is over the tipping point. He's had enough. Seeing is believing. I will say this though: Barnwell's piece is less about logic than just good ol' opinion. And to be honest, he might as well be a Huddler throwing out sh¡t in the summer based upon nothing but good feels or bad feels. 

Our offense as a whole (just like any other team's) is going to depend upon the play of the O-line and especially the QB. How you can even rank the skill positions without expressly baking those two things in the cake is beyond me. I would dare say that that's not even logical. 

Edited 12 hours ago by TD alt

[PanthersNCSU]

6 hours ago, SOJA said:

There is no chance we are behind the seahawks, giants, patriots, browns, jets and saints 

That's insane

 

also the vikings have the best offense in the NFL outside of QB

The Saints being that high is the one that killed me.

Chris Olave might not know his name at this point, Shaheed is coming off injury as well, so 31 year old Brandin Cooks might be your best WR...coming off a 260 yard season over 10 games.

Kamara is Kamara, but didn't have 1,000 yards last year and is about to turn 30. 

Toss in the fact that Taysom Hill may be the best QB on the team and I truly don't understand Barnwell's thoughts beside seeing the names "Olave" and "Kamara" and going yep, that sounds better than "Chuba" and "Thielen". 

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, TD alt said:

Now now now, I wouldn't say there is no logic, but there's just not a lot of in-depth thought put into Barnwell's  "analysis." Now to be fair to him (and other national writers), pre-season team rankings are basically clickbait. And...Barnwell, himself, said that "there's a lot of projection here." He basically admits that he doesn't know how the hell things are going to turn out with our receiver group. He also said that "I find myself" more intrigued by Coker than Legette; that does not mean that he said that fans should be, or that Coker will even be better than Legette (regardless of ESPN's per-route-run stat). So, yeah, Barnwell said some things, but even he has to basically admit that he doesn't know how bad or good that our playmakers will be in 2025. 

Overall, what Barnwell is basically thinking is that the Panthers have gotten worse at the offensive skill positions, and baked into that is that others have gotten better. That's the argument in July (meaning, please don't give this any more weight than it's due). I would personally be surprised (not shocked) if we end up worse than the Titans, Pats and Giants at least. Once you throw in the Bills, Giants, Jets, Steelers, and even the Chargers, I personally think there are several teams' skill groups that may end up ranked lower than ours by the end of 2025. 

@kungfoodudeis one of my dudes, but like others he is over the tipping point. He's had enough. Seeing is believing. I will say this though: Barnwell's piece is less about logic than just good ol' opinion. And to be honest, he might as well be a Huddler throwing out sh¡t in the summer based upon nothing but good feels or bad feels. 

Our offense as a whole (just like any other team's) is going to depend upon the play of the O-line and especially the QB. How you can even rank the skill positions without expressly baking those two things in the cake is beyond me. I would dare say that that's not even logical. 

Yeah, this is all projections of how it will turn out. Inevitability this list will look ridiculous in a full 2025 sesson hindsight, most likely.

Still, I am pretty surprised that so many bristled at being thought of as having very, very lowly ranked WR and TE units. We literally have been for years. All you have to do is just have things stay the same and those are immediately bottom 5 units.

It is easy to see why one would be reticent to have lofty expectations in the preseason. Gotta show it first when you are a perennial cellar dweller. That's just life at the bottom.

[WUnderhill]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

Bryce Young had a super high floor definitely at least won't be a bust safe pick we allegedly had seen in some time.......and went on to have one of the worst rookie seasons of all time.  They are all lotto picks.  And that is especially true for whatever they will be day 1 in the NFL. 

I don't think Tmac is a sure thing year 1.  It's not like we watched him do his thing in the SEC.  He was a PAC12 guy.  I'm sure it will take time

You didn’t really address the point, just like you ignored the point about the RBs initially, and saying “they are all lotto picks” is just a really silly reduction because you could say that about literally any player rookie or vet every snap, every game, every year. It is well known that different positions have different hit rates, and I would argue different types of prospects within position groups as well, and that hit rates change the further down in the draft you go. Everybody knows QB is different and that, for example, first round OL have a really high success rate. Using your lotto ticket analogy…again…you are saying a lotto ticket with a 1 in 100 chance of hitting is the exact same thing as a lotto ticket with a 1 in 2 chance of hitting (this is an example, don’t take these odds literally). The point was he is no more of a lotto ticket than the 31yr old receiver coming off a major knee injury, and in my opinion he is better odds with a higher potential “jackpot”. Saying one player is an “lotto ticket” while another isn’t is just not sound logic. You have no idea who will break out, regress, get injured, etc. There are safer bets than others, that’s all. I don’t think Diggs is a safe bet and even if he was, weighing him over all of the Panthers WRs plus 2 1k rushers is just dumb. You can disagree if you want. The list is stupid.

[CRA]

1 minute ago, WUnderhill said:

You didn’t really address the point, just like you ignored the point about the RBs initially, and saying “they are all lotto picks” is just a really silly reduction because you could say that about literally any player rookie or vet every snap, every game, every year. It is well known that different positions have different hit rates, and I would argue different types of prospects within position groups as well, and that hit rates change the further down in the draft you go. Everybody knows QB is different and that, for example, first round OL have a really high success rate. Using your lotto ticket analogy…again…you are saying a lotto ticket with a 1 in 100 chance of hitting is the exact same thing as a lotto ticket with a 1 in 2 chance of hitting (this is an example, don’t take these odds literally). The point was he is no more of a lotto ticket than the 31yr old receiver coming off a major knee injury, and in my opinion he is better odds with a higher potential “jackpot”. Saying one player is an “lotto ticket” while another isn’t is just not sound logic. You have no idea who will break out, regress, get injured, etc. There are safer bets than others, that’s all. I don’t think Diggs is a safe bet and even if he was, weighing him over all of the Panthers WRs plus 2 1k rushers is just dumb. You can disagree if you want. The list is stupid.

A rookie that has never played a snap and a proven 1000K NFL WR are not going to be viewed the same in these type rankings.  And calling draft picks, lotto picks, isn't some new quip I just invented. 

take the big 3

Hubbard, AT, insert whatever 3rd Panther you want

vs

Kamara, Hill, Olave. 

Most football folks outside of Carolina are picking the Saints there IMO.    

[WUnderhill]

12 minutes ago, CRA said:

A rookie that has never played a snap and a proven 1000K NFL WR are not going to be viewed the same in these type rankings.  And calling draft picks, lotto picks, isn't some new quip I just invented. 

take the big 3

Hubbard, AT, insert whatever 3rd Panther you want

vs

Kamara, Hill, Olave. 

Most football folks outside of Carolina are picking the Saints there IMO.    

I didn’t say it was new, I said it was silly to put one blanket statement over everybody, and if you insist on calling them lotto picks then it’s dumb to act like they are all the exact same odds, and that you have to apply the logic to everybody. And you keep leaving out my whole point about this “proven 1000 yd receiver”. 1000 yd receiver who’s 31yr old, been on the downswing since 2022, and coming off a major knee injury. And I’ve talked about 2 Panthers RBs and Tmac from the word go so you make up a list of 3 that only includes 1 of them when the list in question is not even a ranking of “big 3’s”. I mean you are clearly just ignoring everything I’m saying and picking whatever makes the Panthers look worst just to die on whatever hill you’re on so you do you. The list is dumb, I’m sorry you like it more than I do.