All-22 Review of the first team offense vs. Houston

[Icege]

Intro
Was hoping to be able to put this together this morning after seeing that NFL Pro has been updated to include preseason All-22, but $500+ in car repairs later I'm working on it now this evening.

After getting to review the film, I'm not nearly as concerned with the offensive showing as I was. While some fans are looking for 300 yards and 5 TDs in preseason, 0/2 seems pretty terrible until we look at the film. There is a lot of stuff to be hopeful about, but there's also plenty to get cleaned up as well. Let's dive into the tape!

First Series - First Play
Panthers in 11 personnel, Texans in their Buffalo nickel package. Texans have their full starting defense while Carolina has their current 1st strings (JT0 for Tremble, Mays for DLew). Carolina lines up with trips to the field side and JT0 inline towards the boundary. XL motions from the slot and seems to have trouble getting lined up correctly but Bryce helps him out. This is that horrible throw to start the game. The OL sells wide zone left and Bryce pulls it down. JT0 does a great job slinging Will Anderson Jr to the inside, but WAJ holds JT0 and drags him to the ground as Bryce rolls right. Sanders would've likely been the checkdown option to gain a couple of yards, but is taken out of the play. Flags are thrown, Bryce sees the penalty and the flags, spots XL over top of Stingley (image below), and tries to get it to him. The throw is bad, but it's the right decision. TMac is bracketed, Sanders is on the turf, and going to AT would've been the cardinal sin of throwing across the QB's body. Bryce slings it just before getting hit out of bounds. If he's given the time to plant and throw, that's six. Penalty ends up negating the INT.

Below, you can see the moment that Bryce sees the flag come in for WAJ holding Sanders (who is down on the ground to the bottom left). TMac is bracketed above. He spots XL behind Stingley just after this moment and continues to the boundary where he makes the throw.

Verdict: A stronger-armed QB possibly makes that throw to XL rather than Stingley, but we see Bryce getting XL situated pre-snap. This is good and showing ownership of the offense by QB1. If not for the penalty, Sanders might be out there in the flats open or at least buying Bryce more time since the two defenders bearing down on him would've at least needed to have one back off to cover the TE. The Texans also are showing TMac a lot of respect by making it a point to bracket him off the rip.

First Series - Second Play
No personnel change from the opening play. Panthers line up in a similar formation, only with trips to the field side rather than in a bunch. Thielen goes in motion and the ball is handed off to Chuba for just a 2yd gain before Will Anderson Jr collapses the edge from the backside due to coming in unblocked. Looking at this play, while I can't say for certain as I'm not in the room with the team obviously, but it appears like JT0 was supposed to block WAJ rather than going to the second level to block the LB. With the combo blocks taking place, it looks like this was a run play with a designed cutback in mind. This was also against eight in the box.

However, looking at the above snapshot I can't help but wonder if Chuba was supposed to hit the hole to the left between Icky and Mays. If that's the case, then JT's climbing to the second level and leaving WAJ unblocked makes more sense.

Verdict: However, looking at the above capture, Chuba might have seen #98 Tim Settle sliding into the gap and made the decision to cut back into the waiting arms of WAJ. To me, this is good defense by the Texans.

First Series - Third Play
Same personnel for both teams again. Panthers line up in the shotgun. Ball is snapped and Mays + TMo get bulldozed backwards causing Bryce to have to drop back more. TMac runs an in route and comes open, but isn't able to come down with it. The throw is a little high, but that's why he was the first WR drafted and went in the top-10. If he doesn't flatten his route as early as he does then he's in a better spot where that ball should be easier to come down with. At the same time, this looks like it's supposed to be an in rather than a crosser. The capture below shows the start and end of the route where the drop takes place with X's and the ? is where his route would have carried him had he not flattened it out.

TMac also needs to use both hands. He's more than capable of the one-handed highlight reel grabs, but if he snatches this with both paws then MJ Stewart isn't dislodging it by slapping his elbow like he did here.

Verdict: A QB and his rookie WR are still building chemistry. If Bryce doesn't put this as high as he does, it's easier for TMac to come down with MJ Stewart isn't able to break it up. If TMac doesn't flatten out his route too early and uses both hands, the ball is in an easier place for him to shield it with his body. I expect both guys to learn from this tape and work even further on their chemistry + timing.

First Series - Fourth Play
Same personnel groupings for both teams, except Carolina subs in Rico for Chuba and Brycen Tremayne in for XL (). The Texans go with Mario Edwards in for Settle and EJ Speed in for To'oTo'o. Panthers start out in the shotgun with five wide (trips to the right). Bryce scans the defense and calls for Dowdle to motion into the backfield. Once Dowdle gets back there, Bryce points out the mike (Speed) who has creeped up to the LOS for Dowdle to watch (image below. Corbett echoes the call, points out Speed, and snaps the ball. Speed runs a stunt which Dowdle picks up.

Ball is snapped and Bryce first looks to the left at TMac who is 1v1 outside. The deep safety breaks for TMac, leaving the middle of the field open for Sanders who is running an in route (image below). Bryce fires and hits JT directly in the hands and he drops it all on his own. Stingley was unable to make the play on the ball and was draped around JT0's waist.

At first glance back at the All-22, I thought that Stingley might have gotten a hand in there to cause a PBU. Watching live, I thought I recalled a slow motion of the play showing that it hits Sanders in the hands and he just dropped it. I've got the capture below showing the moment it bounces off, but am about to put little dude to bed and still have the three plays from the second series to review so I'll have to wait until I get back to go through the broadcast to find that moment (if I'm remembering correctly, of course).

Verdict: JT0 has to catch that. Third down, Bryce makes all of the right pre- and post-snap reads/responses, and to not be that reliable safety valve on third down that TEs are supposed to be hurts. Tremble is coming back, and while Sanders is arguably the better receiver it is without a doubt that Tommy is currently the more reliable player (so long as there's no lingering issues from back surgery, of course). I wouldn't be surprised, should Sanders/Evans/Mitchell not separate themselves from the rest of the room and supplant Tremble, if the team spends more resources on finding an impact player for the group. This also shows the type of effect that TMac is already having on opposing defenses. The Texans bracketed him on the very first play of the game, and the safety was clearly making taking him away in this play the priority. As McMillan continues to find his stride in the NFL, things are going to open up even more for this offense.

TBD
I've got the second series queued up and ready to go after I'm informed whether or not the monsters down the hallway are indeed sleeping and it is safe for me to leave sentry duty to one of the cats instead.

Edited Monday at 12:34 AM by Icege

[jb2288]

It’s refreshing to get an analytical and level headed view in here. Thanks so much for putting in all the effort your content rocks. The first play breakdown is so helpful after hearing people say Bryce panicked or had AT wide open or someone even said he never even saw the flag. Justin Herbert probably makes that throw, Bryce doesn’t. That’s a fair criticism

Edited Monday at 12:39 AM by jb2288

[Bear Hands]

Nice - thanks @Icege

 

[frankw]

We had less than 100 total yards for most of the Texans game and finished with a whopping three points.

There's a whole lot of real estate between that and 300 yards 5 TD's. People just want to see progression of any kind.

And since when is throwing into triple coverage under any circumstances something you want your starting QB doing especially one entering a pivotal prove it season?

The throw to TMac was high and on the QB. JT had a bad drop. Then Bryce had a moment where he looked completely lost fleeing the pocket and basically sacked himself.

Not really anything to sugarcoat from this one.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Terrific post 

[kungfoodude]

I couldn't tell if Bryce saw the flag or not live. If he could, no harm, no foul. If he couldn't, absolutely inexcusable.

I will say that IMO that pass to TMac was a poorly thrown ball due to the pass rush. He needs to throw it better but with half the line getting dump trucked, I can't beat Bryce up too bad.

As poorly as the first unit offense played, I honestly think the defense is still a much greater concern. 

I do wish maybe we could have seen a series or two more of the starters. 

[Mr Mojo Risin]

30 minutes ago, frankw said:

We had less than 100 total yards for most of the Texans game and finished with a whopping three points.

There's a whole lot of real estate between that and 300 yards 5 TD's. People just want to see progression of any kind.

And since when is throwing into triple coverage under any circumstances something you want your starting QB doing especially one entering a pivotal prove it season?

The throw to TMac was high and on the QB. JT had a bad drop. Then Bryce had a moment where he looked completely lost fleeing the pocket and basically sacked himself.

Not really anything to sugarcoat from this one.

We've had great drives and have seen the 1st string O move the ball and score points in the preseason. It's been done already. They don't have to come out and score on every single drive in preseason. This game last year 

 

They put together that type of drive in the preseason last year and proceeded to poo the bed anyways the first two months of the season. It doesn't make a difference man. Good. Bad. It's preseason. Making assumptions about preseason play has NEVER been an indicator on whether a team is destined for a winning season or not.

[33inNC]

1 hour ago, Icege said:

Intro
Was hoping to be able to put this together this morning after seeing that NFL Pro has been updated to include preseason All-22, but $500+ in car repairs later I'm working on it now this evening.

After getting to review the film, I'm not nearly as concerned with the offensive showing as I was. While some fans are looking for 300 yards and 5 TDs in preseason, 0/2 seems pretty terrible until we look at the film. There is a lot of stuff to be hopeful about, but there's also plenty to get cleaned up as well. Let's dive into the tape!

First Series - First Play
Panthers in 11 personnel, Texans in their Buffalo nickel package. Texans have their full starting defense while Carolina has their current 1st strings (JT0 for Tremble, Mays for DLew). Carolina lines up with trips to the field side and JT0 inline towards the boundary. XL motions from the slot and seems to have trouble getting lined up correctly but Bryce helps him out. This is that horrible throw to start the game. The OL sells wide zone left and Bryce pulls it down. JT0 does a great job slinging Will Anderson Jr to the inside, but WAJ holds JT0 and drags him to the ground as Bryce rolls right. Sanders would've likely been the checkdown option to gain a couple of yards, but is taken out of the play. Flags are thrown, Bryce sees the penalty and the flags, spots XL over top of Stingley (image below), and tries to get it to him. The throw is bad, but it's the right decision. TMac is bracketed, Sanders is on the turf, and going to AT would've been the cardinal sin of throwing across the QB's body. Bryce slings it just before getting hit out of bounds. If he's given the time to plant and throw, that's six. Penalty ends up negating the INT.

Below, you can see the moment that Bryce sees the flag come in for WAJ holding Sanders (who is down on the ground to the bottom left). TMac is bracketed above. He spots XL behind Stingley just after this moment and continues to the boundary where he makes the throw.

Verdict: A stronger-armed QB possibly makes that throw to XL rather than Stingley, but we see Bryce getting XL situated pre-snap. This is good and showing ownership of the offense by QB1. If not for the penalty, Sanders might be out there in the flats open or at least buying Bryce more time since the two defenders bearing down on him would've at least needed to have one back off to cover the TE. The Texans also are showing TMac a lot of respect by making it a point to bracket him off the rip.

First Series - Second Play
No personnel change from the opening play. Panthers line up in a similar formation, only with trips to the field side rather than in a bunch. Thielen goes in motion and the ball is handed off to Chuba for just a 2yd gain before Will Anderson Jr collapses the edge from the backside due to coming in unblocked. Looking at this play, while I can't say for certain as I'm not in the room with the team obviously, but it appears like JT0 was supposed to block WAJ rather than going to the second level to block the LB. With the combo blocks taking place, it looks like this was a run play with a designed cutback in mind. This was also against eight in the box.

However, looking at the above snapshot I can't help but wonder if Chuba was supposed to hit the hole to the left between Icky and Mays. If that's the case, then JT's climbing to the second level and leaving WAJ unblocked makes more sense.

Verdict: However, looking at the above capture, Chuba might have seen #98 Tim Settle sliding into the gap and made the decision to cut back into the waiting arms of WAJ. To me, this is good defense by the Texans.

First Series - Third Play
Same personnel for both teams again. Panthers line up in the shotgun. Ball is snapped and Mays + TMo get bulldozed backwards causing Bryce to have to drop back more. TMac runs an in route and comes open, but isn't able to come down with it. The throw is a little high, but that's why he was the first WR drafted and went in the top-10. If he doesn't flatten his route as early as he does then he's in a better spot where that ball should be easier to come down with. At the same time, this looks like it's supposed to be an in rather than a crosser. The capture below shows the start and end of the route where the drop takes place with X's and the ? is where his route would have carried him had he not flattened it out.

TMac also needs to use both hands. He's more than capable of the one-handed highlight reel grabs, but if he snatches this with both paws then MJ Stewart isn't dislodging it by slapping his elbow like he did here.

Verdict: A QB and his rookie WR are still building chemistry. If Bryce doesn't put this as high as he does, it's easier for TMac to come down with MJ Stewart isn't able to break it up. If TMac doesn't flatten out his route too early and uses both hands, the ball is in an easier place for him to shield it with his body. I expect both guys to learn from this tape and work even further on their chemistry + timing.

First Series - Fourth Play
Same personnel groupings for both teams, except Carolina subs in Rico for Chuba and Brycen Tremayne in for XL (). The Texans go with Mario Edwards in for Settle and EJ Speed in for To'oTo'o. Panthers start out in the shotgun with five wide (trips to the right). Bryce scans the defense and calls for Dowdle to motion into the backfield. Once Dowdle gets back there, Bryce points out the mike (Speed) who has creeped up to the LOS for Dowdle to watch (image below. Corbett echoes the call, points out Speed, and snaps the ball. Speed runs a stunt which Dowdle picks up.

Ball is snapped and Bryce first looks to the left at TMac who is 1v1 outside. The deep safety breaks for TMac, leaving the middle of the field open for Sanders who is running an in route (image below). Bryce fires and hits JT directly in the hands and he drops it all on his own. Stingley was unable to make the play on the ball and was draped around JT0's waist.

At first glance back at the All-22, I thought that Stingley might have gotten a hand in there to cause a PBU. Watching live, I thought I recalled a slow motion of the play showing that it hits Sanders in the hands and he just dropped it. I've got the capture below showing the moment it bounces off, but am about to put little dude to bed and still have the three plays from the second series to review so I'll have to wait until I get back to go through the broadcast to find that moment (if I'm remembering correctly, of course).

Verdict: JT0 has to catch that. Third down, Bryce makes all of the right pre- and post-snap reads/responses, and to not be that reliable safety valve on third down that TEs are supposed to be hurts. Tremble is coming back, and while Sanders is arguably the better receiver it is without a doubt that Tommy is currently the more reliable player (so long as there's no lingering issues from back surgery, of course). I wouldn't be surprised, should Sanders/Evans/Mitchell not separate themselves from the rest of the room and supplant Tremble, if the team spends more resources on finding an impact player for the group. This also shows the type of effect that TMac is already having on opposing defenses. The Texans bracketed him on the very first play of the game, and the safety was clearly making taking him away in this play the priority. As McMillan continues to find his stride in the NFL, things are going to open up even more for this offense.

TBD
I've got the second series queued up and ready to go after I'm informed whether or not the monsters down the hallway are indeed sleeping and it is safe for me to leave sentry duty to one of the cats instead.

The first play is why Bryce Young will never be worth the price. Noodle arm cannot make a D pay when the WR beats the CB deep. Are we really praising Bryce for kind of getting it in year 3? For what we have away for him?

I'd love to be optimistic, but once again the whole team looks outmatched and we make excuses for them. 

[frankw]

1 minute ago, Mr Mojo Risin said:

We've had great drives and have seen the 1st string O move the ball and score points in the preseason. It's been done already. They don't have to come out and score on every single drive in preseason. This game last year 

 

They put together that type of drive in the preseason last year and proceeded to poo the bed anyways the first two months of the season. It doesn't make a difference man. Good. Bad. It's preseason. Making assumptions about preseason play has NEVER been an indicator on whether a team is destined for a winning season or not.

They actually didn't look very good in that drive against the Bills. I can link you to the gameday thread on that one and there is one poster who got inundated with poo reactions for stating so and he ended up being right. It might not be the case for most of the NFL but for our Panthers unfortunately their flaws in preseason have absolutely carried over to the regular season as of late. I don't like it either but that's us right now.

[PantherChris]

16 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I couldn't tell if Bryce saw the flag or not live. If he could, no harm, no foul. If he couldn't, absolutely inexcusable.

I will say that IMO that pass to TMac was a poorly thrown ball due to the pass rush. He needs to throw it better but with half the line getting dump trucked, I can't beat Bryce up too bad.

As poorly as the first unit offense played, I honestly think the defense is still a much greater concern. 

I do wish maybe we could have seen a series or two more of the starters. 

He definitely saw the flag its literally right in front of his face if he didn't see it we have the larger issue of having a legally blind starting QB

[frankw]

3 minutes ago, 33inNC said:

The first play is why Bryce Young will never be worth the price. Noodle arm cannot make a D pay when the WR beats the CB deep. Are we really praising Bryce for kind of getting it in year 3? For what we have away for him?

I'd love to be optimistic, but once again the whole team looks outmatched and we make excuses for them. 

You won't get much sense from some of the extremist optimists here. They'll spam poo reactions and flail and then slink away when we start losing.

[Mr Mojo Risin]

5 minutes ago, frankw said:

They actually didn't look very good in that drive against the Bills. I can link you to the gameday thread on that one and there is one poster who got inundated with poo reactions for stating so and he ended up being right. It might not be the case for most of the NFL but for our Panthers unfortunately their flaws in preseason have absolutely carried over to the regular season as of late. I don't like it either but that's us right now.

What was the issue with that drive? Hitting the open receivers and taking what the defense gives you is a problem? They drove down the field scored a touchdown and even converted on a 3rd and 6. Preseason play is not an indicator of regular season success.

Cam Newton looked pretty awful throwing the ball in his rookie preseason games only to come out and break NFL records for passing lol. You just can't tell man. And predicting that a team that was bad last year, is going to be bad again this year isn't exactly rocket science

Edited Monday at 01:54 AM by Mr Mojo Risin

[frankw]

2 minutes ago, Mr Mojo Risin said:

What was the issue with that drive? Hitting the open receivers and taking what the defense gives you is a problem? They drove down the field scored a touchdown and even converted on a 3rd and 6. Preseason play is not an indicator of regular season success.

Cam Newton looked pretty awful throwing the ball in his rookie preseason games only to come out and break NFL records for passing lol. You just can't tell man. And predicting a team that was bad last year is going to be bad again this year isn't exactly rocket science

It was against backups let's be real.

Oh good god man come on. Cam Newton is the only MVP in franchise history and was a culture changer. Nobody on this team has the clout to get the benefit of the doubt like that. Not yet at least.

Edited Monday at 01:55 AM by frankw

[Mr Mojo Risin]

4 minutes ago, frankw said:

Oh good god man come on.

Cam Newton is the only MVP in franchise history and was a culture changer.

Nobody on this team has the clout to get the benefit of the doubt like that. Not yet at least.

In 2015 Cam Newton was yes. Cam Newton in 2011 was not and I'm not going to compare Cam's career and what he accomplished to the current situation we find ourselves in as a Franchise. I'm just pointing out a relevant situation in our team's history that proves you can't use a preseason game in which the QB threw 2 passes to dictate whether we are going to be a functional offense or not I mean it just doesn't make any sense.

And the counter to that fact, you cant use a singular good drive by the offense to also dictate whether they are going to be a functional unit or not.

Edited Monday at 01:59 AM by Mr Mojo Risin