Reviewing the All-22: Week 1 @ JAX

[Icege]

With there already being quite literally 10+ threads about Bryce I figured there might be a couple of posters that would be interested in talking about another poor performer in Jacksonville: the defense. Morgan made revamping the DL his primary focus this offseason in order to try and fix the historically bad performance that was put on the field last season only for the Jaguars to run for 200yds. With that performance, Evero's defenses in Carolina have now allowed 200+ rushing yards 26 times in 35 games. Even if Etienne's 71yd scamper doesn't happen he would have still averaged 4.8yds a carry. 

So why is it all of the same, even with different bodies? I don't know yet. That's why we're doing this.

Something that caught me off guard from Sunday's game was the Jags' success rate on 3rd down. I'm hopefully not the only one that felt like the Jags were converting on 3rd down at will, but after looking at the box score it appears that on 12 attempts they were only able to convert 5 times for a sub-50% conversion rate. How can that be? When Jacksonville needed a first down on third and long they seemed to get it.

Wait a second... 3rd and long? Maybe that was why it felt the way that it did: the Jags were 3 for 6 on 3rd and 7+ to go. They were also 2 for 2 on 4th down. Those type of conversions are backbreakers for defenses, so let's take a look at those conversions to see if there's anything we can figure out. On one end, we have a situation where the defense is at an advantage and another where that revamped DL should be able to show it's value.

 

Q1 13:47 - 4th & 1 from JAX 37
This play felt like a taste of things to come. From their own 37yd line the Jaguars lined up with 2TEs and both WRs to the boundary side. Carolina is in their 3-4 base with a single high safety and showing an over front. It's worth mentioning here that the Jaguars aren't just lined up E-T-G-C-G-T-E... they're lined up T-T-G-C-G-E-E. The Jaguars send Dyami Brown in motion and run the jet sweep to the field side with the two TEs to the right moving out to the right while the rest of the line crashes to the left towards the boundary (and away from where Dyami is running). PJ2 is left unblocked and gets mixed by the fake handoff to the RB. Jaycee and Jackson do their best on the left side vs. the tight ends blocking them while Trevin is in pursuit from behind. Wallace had no idea the jet sweep was happening until it had already happened. He was cheating up and then went left afterwards. Great playcall and design by Coen here. If not for Jaycee knocking Brenton Strange backwards and tripping up Dyami, this might have gone for a lot more.

 

Q1 12:03 - 3rd & 10 from JAX 41
Right after giving up a 4th & 1 the defense gives up another conversion, this time on 3rd & 10. The Jags start come out in the shotgun with the receivers set up in a 2x2 and the RB to TLaw's left. Dyami Brown motions across the formation towards the right side of the field so that the Jags have trips to that side. The Panthers are playing off coverage and are in an over front with two safeties split deep. The ball is snapped aaaaaand... it's cover 3 zone. Panthers are in a dime look with a 3rd safety and Moehrig starts to carry Travis Hunter but doesn't pass him off to Nick Scott. This opens up the spot Moehrig left for Brenton Strange to settle in to catch the ball underneath. Turk Wharton had jumped offsides to start this play as well. Somebody clearly messed up on this play and I think it's Moehrig because I don't think the playcall meant for him to man up on Travis Hunter. The more we do these over the season, the more answers I imagine we'll find as we see repeats.

Q3 04:25 - 3rd & 10 from JAX 14
This and the following offensive drive for the Jaguars effectively killed any chance at trying to catch the Jaguars at 20. Backed up on their own 14yd line on 3rd and long, Jacksonville marches out their 11 personnel while the Panthers have their dime personnel with a third safety. They show an even front and man alignment but with off coverage. Surprisingly, rather than cover-3 we get a cover-6 call. Nick Scott backpedals all of the way from the 26 to the 40 to be the deep half defender as Mike Jackson passes Dyami Brown off to him from the 24 (where the first down marker is). Jackson passed him off because Brenton Strange was coming open underneath to the flat. As soon as TLaw sees the pass off he fires it over to Brown who makes the comfortable catch. Mike Jackson immediately tackles him as Nick Scott hustles over from 10yds away from the play. I think the clear issue here was Scott getting so damn deep. The LOS is the 14, first down at the 24, and he's all the way back at the 40?

 

Q4 10:44 - 4th & 1 from CAR 34
The Jags line up with both tight ends inline to the boundary (left) side along with OL6. Nothing fancy here, just a HB dive.  BB3 showed good get off here but the center for JAX did a good job bumping him and climbing to the second level to seal off Moehrig. DB got pushed back a little bit by the LT after bumping into BB3 and the RG did his job in sealing ARob off enough. The Jags won in the trenches... not much else to say here. Moehrig could have started coming downhill a little sooner to try and shoot the gap, maybe? Other than that, ARob winning his match up could've prevented it? Regardless, this sucked because it gave the Jags another set of downs to run the clock down with... you know what? Moehrig should've shot that gap. It's 4th & 1 in the fourth quarter and there's enough time to get two or three possessions. He's opposite of the tight ends and Mike Jackson has 1-on-1 coverage on the outside. Moehrig has to go downhill here.

Q4 09:16 - 3rd & 8 from CAR 29
And just like the drive to start the game, the Jaguars end the 3rd quarter and start the 4th with a drive where they convert on 4th & 1 and then 3rd and long on the next set of downs with a long drive that ended in a field goal. Jags are in 11 personnel while the Panthers are in nickel with Scourton + Johnson as the EDGEs. Bunch to the right and who wants to guess the play call by Evero? If you guess cover 3, you win! Coen did, and the Jaguars were able to let Brenton Strange settle in right between Rozeboom + Moehrig for a 10yd gain on 3rd & 8 to keep the chains moving.

The conversion rate on 3rd & 7 - 10 in the NFL is 34.42%. Not only did the Jaguars convert half of their 3rd and longs, they also had two drives where they converted not only a 3rd and long a 4th down as well. Their first drive to start the game, a 13 play, 55yd drive that took 6:45 off of the clock (and netted them 3pts) and their third to last drive of the game. That later drive was a killer: 15 plays, 49yds, 8:07 possession time. Those two drives alone drained a total of 14:5, an entire quarter, off of the game clock. They only came out of both drives with field goals, but that's still just not going to be good enough results by the defense help this team win games.

Evero's scheme works when the team is ahead and teams have to throw the ball more. In a dirty slugfest though? It's not holding up well at all. Combine that with the Panthers' offense starting slow yet again and this might not get better until the team starts playing more complimentary football. It's only week 1 though and there's a lot of football left to go in the season.

[Icege]

Boo, the formatting is being a pain in the ass and won't let me move the third video listed under "Q1 12:03 - 3rd & 10 from JAX 41" to under "Q3 04:25 - 3rd & 10 from JAX 14"

Edited 10 hours ago by Icege

[raleigh-panther]

Thanks for doing this.  The Huddle is archaic despite Zod’s promises

[Dave Gettleman's Shorts]

saw somewhere that evero ran cover 3 ~50% of the game

[cranky]

First: a big thanks for taking the time to do this.

Second: "Panthers are in nickel with Scourton + Johnson as the EDGEs. Bunch to the right and who wants to guess the play call by Evero? If you guess cover 3, you win! "

I think that pretty much sums up Evero's play calling. He's just too predictable and offenses are exploiting it.

[jfra78]

We know the defense is bad, the offense is supposed to help them.  Can't have a bunch of 3 and outs and turnovers and expect our defense to hold

[Icege]

6 hours ago, Dave Gettleman's Shorts said:

saw somewhere that evero ran cover 3 ~50% of the game

Yea, 55%+ iirc

I thought we would see more cover 4 and 6 looks like in his first season, but it was a lot of soft cover 3 again 

[Icege]

6 hours ago, jfra78 said:

We know the defense is bad, the offense is supposed to help them.  Can't have a bunch of 3 and outs and turnovers and expect our defense to hold

There is over 10+ threads to bitch about the offense in. Please keep discussion in this thread on the defense.

[frankw]

8 hours ago, jfra78 said:

We know the defense is bad, the offense is supposed to help them.  Can't have a bunch of 3 and outs and turnovers and expect our defense to hold

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

In 2025 the Panthers are 10th in offensive spending and 28th in defensive spending.

But yeah let's blame everything on the defense...

[OldhamA]

9 hours ago, cranky said:

First: a big thanks for taking the time to do this.

Second: "Panthers are in nickel with Scourton + Johnson as the EDGEs. Bunch to the right and who wants to guess the play call by Evero? If you guess cover 3, you win! "

I think that pretty much sums up Evero's play calling. He's just too predictable and offenses are exploiting it.

I've only had time to look at the first few clips, but I think the problem with Evero is that players simply aren't executing.

Nobody makes a play on the sweep. Moehrig makes a mistake on the next play. Scott makes a mistake on the next.

I guess that's coaching, but fundamentally the system is fine. 

[Icege]

5 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

I've only had time to look at the first few clips, but I think the problem with Evero is that players simply aren't executing.

Nobody makes a play on the sweep. Moehrig makes a mistake on the next play. Scott makes a mistake on the next.

I guess that's coaching, but fundamentally the system is fine. 

I wonder how much of that is a combination of swapping out over half of the starters from last season and one less week of preseason for teams to get on the same page.

It was particularly frustrating seeing guys that have been in the system for a year or longer failing to execute. I like Nick Scott as a person and appreciate his ability to communicate the scheme to the others, but Lathan Ransom has so much more upside.

Speaking of Ransom, I'm hoping between today and tomorrow to review all of the rookies on defense since they didn't have many snaps to begin with.