One man’s trash…

[PNW_PantherMan]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

It's funny how quickly people forget the "I wish we drafted like *insert successful NFL team*" comments during the season when the offseason hits. Then it's fire everyone, cut everyone, draft this RAS God, etc, etc. 

Look at how common it is for ALL those teams we talked about to be taking top players at their positions consistently throughout most drafts. BPA, high value guys. Constantly. 

They aren't reaching or trading up for the XL's, DJ Johnson's or the like. They make more smart decisions than dumb ones. It's that fuging simple. 

They're constantly drafting in the back half of the 1st round, which is arguably the best place to pick from a value perspective.  If you can imagine a graph with level of prospect on one axis and contract slot on the other.  The back half of the 1st is the most efficient place to draft.  It's relatively easy to find big time starters and their rookie deals are significantly cheaper than a top 5 pick.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

They're constantly drafting in the back half of the 1st round, which is arguably the best place to pick from a value perspective.  If you can imagine a graph with level of prospect on one axis and contract slot on the other.  The back half of the 1st is the most efficient place to draft.  It's relatively easy to find big time starters and their rookie deals are significantly cheaper than a top 5 pick.

That is where I do sometimes get annoyed with the tanking crowd at the end of every year. Draft position can help a lot, it definitely can.

But good evaluation will overwhelmingly outshine draft positioning every single fuging time. 

It's why I rage against the "development" guys so much. I agree we don't develop players well, I get it. But that problem PALES in comparison to the evaluation issues we have. 

[strato]

23 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

That is where I do sometimes get annoyed with the tanking crowd at the end of every year. Draft position can help a lot, it definitely can.

But good evaluation will overwhelmingly outshine draft positioning every single fuging time. 

It's why I rage against the "development" guys so much. I agree we don't develop players well, I get it. But that problem PALES in comparison to the evaluation issues we have. 

You are going to have to miss out on a Peppers level talent or other notable monsters over the years, that are so clearly separated from the pack. But I generally agree. For just about all positions. 
 

I want Luke light at the end of the first.Someone at that position that is a solid 1st round talent. Don’t care about how people Moneyball that position I think it is a very important position 

 

edit: also, I vaguely remember tanking not being a possibility. That!s what I miss. 

Edited 21 hours ago by strato

[Khyber53]

3 hours ago, Khaki Lackey said:

Dude, Tomlin inherited a .500 team that was one season removed from a super bowl victory

And it still got Cowher fired.

[amcoolio]

I remember people saying we reached for Luke. Not anyone here, but analysts. 

Draft positioning only matters for QBs, and the last decade has proved that QB's taken in the draft are a complete ass coinflip, there is zero way to predict if a QB is going to be good or not. Just draft and pray you get lucky

[NAS]

16 minutes ago, amcoolio said:

I remember people saying we reached for Luke. Not anyone here, but analysts. 

Draft positioning only matters for QBs, and the last decade has proved that QB's taken in the draft are a complete ass coinflip, there is zero way to predict if a QB is going to be good or not. Just draft and pray you get lucky

I knew Drake Maye would be good. Not that hard. Some were out on him as a rookie because he struggled he would have struggled this year too if not for great coaching. 

Edited 19 hours ago by NAS

[strato]

21 minutes ago, NAS said:

I knew Drake Maye would be good. Not that hard. Some were out on him as a rookie because he struggled he would have struggled this year too if not for great coaching. 

Have to give smug ass Robert Kraft some credit too for bailing on his favorite son Mayo after just one year and moving on Vrabel. 

[Khaki Lackey]

6 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

And it still got Cowher fired.

He did not get fired.

[ProcessBlue2]

5 hours ago, strato said:

Have to give smug ass Robert Kraft some credit too for bailing on his favorite son Mayo after just one year and moving on Vrabel. 

Vrabel was probably always the guy though. He was just in Tennessee still, and then teams were interested in Mayo before BB left and they did that whole successor thing in his contract to keep him there. Atleast that’s my guess.

[strato]

2 hours ago, ProcessBlue2 said:

Vrabel was probably always the guy though. He was just in Tennessee still, and then teams were interested in Mayo before BB left and they did that whole successor thing in his contract to keep him there. Atleast that’s my guess.

I thought he was from watching him play and also doing his first HC job. I thought he was the real deal 

Apparently what happened is Kraft committed to Mayo and I don’t remember the timeline exactly - but Vrabel was unemployed at the same time Belichick was unemployed. They both were fired (or out) after the 2023 season. 
Kraft hired Mayo. Who was kind of an obvious disaster. He probably already had the deal in place but I will give Kraft credit for not sleeping. With Vrabel out there for 2025 he made the move he needed to make and if it hurt Mayo’s feelings then oh well. 

I guess you can tell I am not fond of Kraft but that was a really savvy move. At his age, pretty good. Still has it. 

Edited 10 hours ago by strato

[Khyber53]

10 hours ago, Khaki Lackey said:

He did not get fired.

Sorry, my memory may be getting wonky with age. I thought he had been. Or had it been a "mutual agreement to resign/retire?"

[Khaki Lackey]

1 hour ago, Khyber53 said:

Sorry, my memory may be getting wonky with age. I thought he had been. Or had it been a "mutual agreement to resign/retire?"

Pretty sure he just straight up retired. 

[PNW_PantherMan]

13 hours ago, ProcessBlue2 said:

Vrabel was probably always the guy though. He was just in Tennessee still, and then teams were interested in Mayo before BB left and they did that whole successor thing in his contract to keep him there. Atleast that’s my guess.

Mayo was just the guy who had to step into Bill's shoes.  That was never going to work out.  The team was falling apart when Bill left.  Mayo took one for the team.  So Vrabel could come in and not be in BB's shadow.

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Mayo was just the guy who had to step into Bill's shoes.  That was never going to work out.  The team was falling apart when Bill left.  Mayo took one for the team.  So Vrabel could come in and not be in BB's shadow.

Yeah, that whole scenario was fuged up.