Deep Ball in Cyclical Decline

[strato]

10 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Next week it’s “they’re playing the way they have to play on offense with Andy Dalton at QB”

If his arm isn’t shot we give up some mobility. But we gain an arm and the will to stand in and step into pressure to make a throw. 
 

We surely gain better play action performance and more options off of it. Deeper routes can be in play. A little expansion of the effective target area. That is money with a good running game. 

Edited 3 hours ago by strato

[Bear Hands]

If you think in sequence, it’s part of a bigger cycle/D vs O chess battle.

You had the early 2010s offensive boom, spreading the field.. so it was responded to in large part w/2 high shell and zone cover concepts preventing teams from beating over the top (Fangio, Flores, etc)

So then offenses started getting creative with stretch concepts, motions, misdirection (Shanny, McVay, etc). In addition, the offenses with mobile QBs incorporated more read-option and pistol. 

The defensive response to that was diversifying and blending schemes even more. Nickel (and variations) became used more than base packages. And they took those Fangio concepts and started disguising them given the personnel was much more fluid. Simulated pressures that drop into zone are all over the place these days.

The new offensive response? That’s kind of where we are. For example- McVay has started deploying a lot more gap in his offense has changed a lot. Right now, offenses across the league are kind of in the response stage. Some still have the burners who can take the top off, but the primary weapon tends to be this Outside/Slot combo guy (I.E JSN, Puka, St Brown etc) That’s who’s thriving. 

The short - defenses kind of have the edge in the league wide chess battle. But it doesn’t mean it’s staying that way. Could honestly see the deep ball come back in a response. I just hope we exist in this chess game and aren’t stuck in the kids box just trying to emulate it.

[HaricotVert]

Both things can be true

There can be a reduction in deep balls being thrown in the league

AND

Bryce cant do it anyway so it works out

[LinvilleGorge]

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Next week it’s “they’re playing the way they have to play on offense with Andy Dalton at QB”

Dalton is washed but I'll be surprised if we don't show more vertical elements on our offense 

[SmokinwithWilly]

I wonder how many of Bryce's deep balls, let's say those 30 air yards or more, come from inside the pocket vs when he's scrambling. That would probably tell a whole lot about game planning. 

My hunch is most are scrambling,  because holding those passing lanes open is hard and he already has trouble seeing the field over taller linemen. I suspect we probably don't have as many designed deep ball plays simply because we can't run them effectively due to the simple nature of pocket mechanics and maintaining field vision. Again, just my hunch. 

[CRA]

9 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I wonder how many of Bryce's deep balls, let's say those 30 air yards or more, come from inside the pocket vs when he's scrambling. That would probably tell a whole lot about game planning. 

My hunch is most are scrambling,  because holding those passing lanes open is hard and he already has trouble seeing the field over taller linemen. I suspect we probably don't have as many designed deep ball plays simply because we can't run them effectively due to the simple nature of pocket mechanics and maintaining field vision. Again, just my hunch. 

per next gen stats (they are missing a couple though), I can only find 1 completion by Bryce Young 30+ yards down field in his career.  He has incompletions.   

2023 - week 10 vs the Bears.  Pistol.  Playaction.  I mean, he was in "the in pocket" but there was no real pocket formed to play out of. 

Must-See: Bryce Young slings 45-yard dime on the money to Mike Strachan

Going through next gen, that's the one 30+ pass in his career they have. 

[strato]

21 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I wonder how many of Bryce's deep balls, let's say those 30 air yards or more, come from inside the pocket vs when he's scrambling. That would probably tell a whole lot about game planning. 

My hunch is most are scrambling,  because holding those passing lanes open is hard and he already has trouble seeing the field over taller linemen. I suspect we probably don't have as many designed deep ball plays simply because we can't run them effectively due to the simple nature of pocket mechanics and maintaining field vision. Again, just my hunch. 

The first image in my head when Bryce comes up is that almost immediate bail out and getting some depth to do the running start so he can heave it down the field.

Seen a couple or few nice throws from the pocket where he slides and then steps into it but that isn’t his preferred way to go. I don’t think. 

[Candler Cat]

Chicks dig deep ball

[PNW_PantherMan]

13 minutes ago, CRA said:

per next gen stats (they are missing a couple though), I can only find 1 completion by Bryce Young 30+ yards down field in his career.  He has incompletions.   

2023 - week 10 vs the Bears.  Pistol.  Playaction.  I mean, he was in "the in pocket" but there was no real pocket formed to play out of. 

Must-See: Bryce Young slings 45-yard dime on the money to Mike Strachan

Going through next gen, that's the one 30+ pass in his career they have. 

So you admit it.  He's an effective deep ball thrower beyond 30 yards.

[CRA]

5 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

So you admit it.  He's an effective deep ball thrower beyond 30 yards.

No, he would be comically bad.  He has 1 completion in his entire career that came his rookie year (per next gen)......all the other ones are incompletions.  I didn't count them all up.  But he never lands them and technically and never had to a WR  

[strato]

4 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

So you admit it.  He's an effective deep ball thrower beyond 30 yards.

I hear you lol. 

[CRA]

No NFL D is trying to take the deep ball away from a QB with one career 30+ yard pass to a TE. 

[strato]

2 minutes ago, CRA said:

No, he would be comically bad.  He has 1 completion in his entire career that came his rookie year (per next gen)......all the other ones are incompletions.    

This is where I see the value in trying though. Say you are a CB or and you play the WR the same way, but then he doesn’t stop and gets behind you.
They aren’t free to assume an incompletion even though it is the likely result. They have to respect it. 

[mav1234]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Next week it’s “they’re playing the way they have to play on offense with Andy Dalton at QB”

I mean... Yes.  Not like we're replacing Bryce with someone that is known for their arm strength