Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

The quality stats USUALLY tell the story: Bryce outplayed Stafford today...and the Panthers won

SCO96

By SCO96,
in Carolina Panthers

 Share

Recommended Posts

PanthersATL Grand Master

PanthersATL

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, joeyxfresco said:

This also the first offensive game all season where I felt we blended a lot of things that work for us into a complete game. Everyone ate their piece of the pie. Want more of this and less of the Falcons Bryce takeovers and Rico forced runs. 9ers game showed how one dimensional we can get with the script. This game showed adaptability and responding to whatever the defense throws at us. Loved every bit of it 

And both the offense and the defense stepped up despite the players who were out

  • Pie 1
  • Beer 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, CRA said:

Bryce didn’t outplay Stafford.  Stafford was asked to be a NFL QB all game and mistakes were made.   Bryce was treated like a 3rd string QB the entire game…..and then on 4th down Canales frankly called 2 really dumb plays that worked out insanely well.  The exact calls people have said are why he shouldn’t be a NFL coach.  We have seen the need 2 yards and Bryce chucking it incomplete on repeat this year 

 

Stafford cost the Rams the game today. All of 3 of his turnovers were back breakers for LA and they lost the game. On the other hand Bryce has a couple of nice TD passes and made several critical completions that extended some drives and ultimately iced the game with the last completion to Coker. He also didn't make any major mistakes or turnovers that really hurt the team. In that sense he outplayed Stafford. If you swapped their stat-lines the Rams win this game.

That said, in no game situation would I ever take Young over Stafford. Watching Stafford zip those passes all over the field actually made envious during the game. I actually agreed with one of your posts under another thread. Bryce still hasn't proven he can effectively throw against a strong zone coverage. He seems to be most effective against one on one coverage...and even then its usually outside the numbers and not over the middle of the field. I have a hard time seeing him improving on this due to his height and subpar arm, but it would be nice if he could.

Edited by SCO96
  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Another major stat is defensive passer rating differential. This is calculated by the following formula.

Passer Rating Differential = (Offensive Passer Rating) − (Opponent Passer Rating Allowed)

61.2 = (Bryce's rating 147.1) - (Stafford's rating 85.9)

If a team has a +10 differential they have a 70-75% chance of winning

A team with a +20 differential has 85-90% chance of winning

A +25 to +30 differential has a 95% chance of winning. According to Chat GPT A passer rating differential of +25 or higher is one of the strongest predictors of victory in a single NFL game — more reliable than turnover differential, rushing yards, or total yards

Bryce played well overall today, but a lion's share of the credit goes to the defense for their ability to force Stafford in several uncharacteristic errors to keep his QBR under 90 today.

If the team is going to be successful going forward, Bryce is going to have to play like this from week to week or the team needs to bring another QB who is up to the task.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, kungfoodude said:

I started to like this until the part when I knew it was all most likely BS.

The information/formula in my post comes from a defunct football site website, Cold Hard Football Facts.com. It was hosted by Kerry Byrne back in the day. I think the website closed down around 2016-2017 so I'm unable to directly access information from their webpage. I had to use Chat GTP to search the internet for the information/formula.  

The data is solid. After the MNF game I'll post some information about these passing stats. I can guarantee you that nearly every team with a +10 to +20 PDR is in the run a playoff spot and those in with a negative PDR are in the bottom third of the NFL in winning percentage.

  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

The information/formula in my post comes from a defunct football site website, Cold Hard Football Facts.com. It was hosted by Kerry Byrne back in the day. I think the website closed down around 2016-2017 so I'm unable to directly access information from their webpage. I had to use Chat GTP to search the internet for the information/formula.  

The data is solid. After the MNF game I'll post some information about these passing stats. I can guarantee you that nearly every team with a +10 to +20 PDR is in the run a playoff spot and those in with a negative PDR are in the bottom third of the NFL in winning percentage.

I would just like some real sources and not LLM crap. It gets under my skin.

Sorry if you caught a stray on that but I have too much experience with that kind of crap being INSANELY inaccurate.

Look forward to the thread without that, however. That's right up my alley.

  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuart Smith Veteran

Stuart Smith

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, SCO96 said:

Check out the final stat line for Young 

C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS RTG  
15/20 206 10.3 3 0 2-12 147.1  

 

Stafford:

C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS RTG  
18/28 243 8.7 2 2 2-16 85.9  

About a year or two ago I heard Keyshawn Johnson make a statement that I have never forgotten. I don't have the exact quote, but I'll paraphrase.

You don't need your QB to throw for 300 yards every week. All you need is:

1) A  guy who can drop back 20-25 times per game and not turn the ball over.

2) Pass for approximately 200-220 yards per game

3) Make about 2-3 explosive pass completions per game 

4) Put over 21 points on the scoreboard for most weeks. 

Bryce did all of the above and we won.

I'd like to add that he won the crucial Yards/attempt battle today as well. A passer who averages 7.0 yds/att is a solid player.

Stafford score was 8.7, which is way above the normal. He only lost today because of the turnovers.

Bryce averaged 10.3! That's an elite performance for 20 drop-backs. 

Looking at several Rams fans pages for their take on today’s game. They were pretty much in agreement that Sean McVay got out coached today. (Their words, not mine) one guy was butthurt because it might knock Stafford off the MVP pedestal. 

  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tr3ach Grand Master

Tr3ach

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, CRA said:

Bryce didn’t outplay Stafford.  Stafford was asked to be a NFL QB all game and mistakes were made.   Bryce was treated like a 3rd string QB the entire game…..and then on 4th down Canales frankly called 2 really dumb plays that worked out insanely well.  The exact calls people have said are why he shouldn’t be a NFL coach.  We have seen the need 2 yards and Bryce chucking it incomplete on repeat this year 

 

Its crazy to me that we are half a game from the division lead and just outplayed the best team in the NFL this season and so many people still want to 100% declare that we have a terrible qb AND terrible head coach.  Im pretty sure both of those things cant be true in this situation.  One of them may be.  With our roster talent level it is basically impossible for both of them to be.

  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
3838 Mentor

3838

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Tr3ach said:

Its crazy to me that we are half a game from the division lead and just outplayed the best team in the NFL this season and so many people still want to 100% declare that we have a terrible qb AND terrible head coach.  Im pretty sure both of those things cant be true in this situation.  One of them may be.  With our roster talent level it is basically impossible for both of them to be.

It's Dunning Kruger. And this place is full of it. 

  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TD alt
      Panthers Blueprint: Draft

      By TD alt · Posted

      Two things: 1. Dr. Eric Eager is central to the draft process 2. I know that it was edited, but we didn't hear "Thieneman" one time, not even before the Vikings pick.
    • mrcompletely11
      Panthers Blueprint: Draft

      By mrcompletely11 · Posted

      Why would he sign here as a guard when surely someone would sign him as a tackle?  Assuming he is healthy
    • Panthers Fan 69
       Carolina Hurricanes vs.Vegas Golden Knights  (Stanley Cup Final Game 1) | ESPN on ABC Tuesday, June 2 | 8:00 PM

      By Panthers Fan 69 · Posted

      Went back to watching the highlights. With a sober mind haha. Here is what I saw.    freddie needs to make 1 of those but the rest aren’t on him.    Slavin was BBBBAAAD again last night. Not sure what is going on with these game one Slavin gafs.    miller was ok but had his worst game in the playoffs so far.    nikishin was no good. His his awful turnover led to the first goal at the end of the first period that just can’t happen. ghost was beat like a drum multiple times last night, including the go-ahead goal at the end jarivs wont shoot. He is either hurt or he is struggling mentally and I think it could be a combination of both. He passed up a wide open net on the power-play only to pass it to no one and cleared it himself.     Svech played well. He is getting zero help on that line.    aho. Worst game as a pro. I mean that. He won’t shoot it, passes go to no one and turns it over repeatedly.  He did exactly what they did against Montreal game one when Miller had a turnover. Aho left his man to go help and left the golden Knight player wide open in front of Freddie.  If I was Rod, you Tell Aho when that thing hits your stick you fire it  someone needs to sit him down just him in a room and ask what’s going on. He seems soft, timid and has zero fire.   canes could have won that game   There isn’t a gap between these two teams  they are dead even   Carter Hart’s gonna get lit up in this series. We can beat that guy. the consensus last night was our defense played horrible and our stars won’t score.  clean the defense up. Tell the top line to shoot it everything and we’ll win tomorrow night.   Possibly convincingly.   
×
×
  • Create New...