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Down year for QBs

NAS

By NAS,
in Carolina Panthers

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ProcessBlue2 Grand Master

ProcessBlue2

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Decided to look at the BIG drop off was 2021 -> 2022...

image.png.6ec0613633929c3c15387d517dc40fd6.png

I do remember people saying the same thing last year, I think that the last few games some players had tons of yards and pulled the average up. We'll see if that happens again

y'all made this guy break out Excel

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

Posted
Posted
Just now, ProcessBlue2 said:

y'all made this guy break out Excel

Haha it's easier than just listing stats across years. 

I also just realized that ESPN article is off  by a year. See https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/index.htm, 2022 average yards 218 (well 218.5), https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/index.htm 2021 average yards 228 

 

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cranky Proficient

cranky

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33 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

1) This article is from the middle of the 2024 season. There was no season that ended with 202.8 YPG. By the end of the season, passing numbers had bounced up to 217. We shared those numbers here a few times. The fact that from Oct to end of season numbers went up by ~14 yards suggests we'll see a bounce up this year too.  

2) The article you're referencing is from 2016 onwards... My numbers were not, just last few years. That's the time period we're talking about.

3) There is DEFINITELY a long term trend down. My comment was regarding it is unlikely I see teams changing strategies with regards to QBs because the numbers have been pretty consistent for the last 4 years. 

The article shows the numbers going down from 243.5 to 228 then 217.9 and then 208 (or 217 as you say) last year. They have been going down both long term as well as short term. 

Having a Qb's throwing for ovre 250 a game isn't necessarily a good thing any longer. Prescott and Mahommes lead the league in yardage but neither team has over 6 wins (unless the Chiefs win tonight).

The drop-off isn't huge, but it is there.

 

 

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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Posted
6 minutes ago, cranky said:

The article shows the numbers going down from 243.5 to 228 then 217.9 and then 208 (or 217 as you say) last year. They have been going down both long term as well as short term. 

Having a Qb's throwing for ovre 250 a game isn't necessarily a good thing any longer. Prescott and Mahommes lead the league in yardage but neither team has over 6 wins (unless the Chiefs win tonight).

The drop-off isn't huge, but it is there.

The article unfortunately has incorrect numbers. See https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/index.htm, 2022 average yards 218 (well 218.5), https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/index.htm 2021 average yards 228. So we went from 218 in 2022, to 219 in 2023, to 217 in 2024, to ?? in 2025.  My point was that is hardly a drop off over that duration / the last few years... So yes, long term decline, but in the recent time we've not really lost many yards per game.. We will see how this year finishes out. With Burrow back, he alone may elevate those averages lol.

As to QBs throwing for yards, of the 6 starters that are throwing for more than 250 yards per game, they are a combined 48-26-1, so I'd argue that 250 yards in the air per game gives you a real good chance. In contrast, starting QBs averaging less than 200 are all on losing teams - other than Aaron Rodgers and Bryce Young. 

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PantherChris Grand Master

PantherChris

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11 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

The article unfortunately has incorrect numbers. See https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/index.htm, 2022 average yards 218 (well 218.5), https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/index.htm 2021 average yards 228. So we went from 218 in 2022, to 219 in 2023, to 217 in 2024, to ?? in 2025.  My point was that is hardly a drop off over that duration / the last few years... So yes, long term decline, but in the recent time we've not really lost many yards per game.. We will see how this year finishes out. With Burrow back, he alone may elevate those averages lol.

As to QBs throwing for yards, of the 6 starters that are throwing for more than 250 yards per game, they are a combined 48-26-1, so I'd argue that 250 yards in the air per game gives you a real good chance. In contrast, starting QBs averaging less than 200 are all on losing teams - other than Aaron Rodgers and Bryce Young. 

Not incorrect at the time it was written which was mid season last year 

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, PantherChris said:

Not incorrect at the time it was written which was mid season last year 

No, it is. The article claims that 2022 had YPG of 228. That is incorrect. See https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/index.htm , 2022 average yards 218 (well 218.5), https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/index.htm 2021 average yards 228.  2024 was the mid season number, which went up later in the season.

 

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Growl Grand Master

Growl

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1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

I don't think the statistics bear out this viewpoint.

passing totals last season were at their lowest level since 2008

with four games left to go this season, the average ypg is even lower-212 ypg average league wide.

 

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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7 minutes ago, Growl said:

passing totals last season were at their lowest level since 2008

with four games left to go this season, the average ypg is even lower-212 ypg average league wide.

 

That's true, but last year was only 1 yard less than 2022 / 2023 basically (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm )... This year may bounce up - the average this week was above the 212. We'll see though. 

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TD alt Grand Master

TD alt

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Posted (edited)

Give up that pipedream. The formula is set in stone. Everyone knows that outside of an anomaly here and there, the QB is the most important player on the team and biggest catalyst to Super Bowl appearances and wins. Within that same vein, the numbers that matter most are the revenue numbers from TV deals, and as long as those go up, the QBs' hands will be in the cookie jar before anyone else's.

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GoobyPls Veteran

GoobyPls

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Posted

A lot of the nerds think is due to the scheme change cause the Chiefs. I think there’s a lot of factors, the new kickoff rules mean shorter fields, the majority of defense would rather see a team dink and dunk downfield then give up huge gains.

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Growl Grand Master

Growl

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, mav1234 said:

That's true, but last year was only 1 yard less than 2022 / 2023 basically (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm )... This year may bounce up - the average this week was above the 212. We'll see though. 

even if it ticks up a bit, ypg is still like ~25 yards smaller than it was a decade ago. 
 

the game has changed. 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted

I took a look at 1990 to 2025(so far). It's an interesting look. In my eyes, I don't think there is a huge difference in the rushing output or attempts over that span. The maximum difference in the attempted rushes over that massive of a span of time was only 2.4 attempts/game. Attempts/game has been rising for the past few years but that isn't the biggest difference, it's the efficiency of those runs that is actually at historic highs over that timespan. Look at YPA averages.

The same general thing happened a few years ago with the passing game. Although the range of attempted passes per game is significantly higher in this timespan(5.8 attempts/GM), it's also the efficiency of these passes that has gone up considerably over that era(but peaked a few years ago). 

I don't think we are reverting to a "previous era" of offense in terms of the rushing attempts vs. passing attempts. I say that because with all the rule changes, it's sort of impossible for that to happen. What you are seeing is more likely an adjustment to the defensive changes that came about to stop the explosive passing offenses that had developed. These changes haven't led to an inordinate amount of rushing versus passing(although that ratio has dropped) but it HAS led to much more explosive rushing output as evidenced by YPA ticking up since 2018.

259366344_rushingvs.passing.thumb.PNG.c697c6705d2f34f66947d941d1e31f93.PNG

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    • ImfromClayton
      Down year for QBs

      By ImfromClayton · Posted

      I LOVE threads like this with different opinions and a topic we can actually discuss other than "The QB/HC/OC sux" so thank you! I do agree with your premise. The NFL is always changing, and defenses are having to find ways to adjust to these incredible offenses. I think talent on both sides of the ball is at an all time high, and the rules favor the offense more than ever. I think you're seeing multiple things.  1) QB has never been harder. The things QBs are now asked to do presnap are nothing like what they used to be. Offensive coordinators have gotten so good, and so creative. The best ones are the guys that can convey that to their QB and players better than the others. There's nobody in the NFL calling plays that doesn't understand offensive football, you just have guys that don't teach it well. Sean McVay really changed the way a lot of offenses run, and it's a copycat league, so most orgs have taken a lot of the nuance he brought to the game. Small things like intentionally sending the WR to the wrong side of the formation, and then running him back across presnap are now all over the league, nearly ever snap. It's motion without the motion.  2) Defenses have gotten so much more creative. It's insane to watch the things defenses do to disguise coverage now.  If you don't disguise your coverages consistently now, you're going to get ripped apart. Almost every snap is reminiscent of the old "Radar" defense to me now. It's fascinating to watch. I also think you're seeing a lot of blown coverage as a result of this stuff, but we've always had blown coverage. 3) The WR and Corner talent is ridiculous. I don't think we've ever seen guys this big, this fast, or this strong playing WR or Corner ever. and some of them are all three! There are corners that you shouldn't throw the ball to their guy, period. There are WR that can win every matchup. There have always been some dominant guys, but I do think what we are seeing is special.  Finally, the best QBs are always going to be able to figure it out. I think that's how you see the statistical outliers that we see sometimes in this data. Furthermore, I think it explains the mid career resurgence we see in so many guys this day and time. It takes a while to figure this stuff out. They do not run stuff this complicated on offense for sure in college, and most defenses don't do anything like we are seeing either. 
    • kungfoodude
      Down year for QBs

      By kungfoodude · Posted

      He isn't the last QB in YPG. There are a few actually below him.
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