What to Consider when you Draft in Round 1

[csx]

Build from trenches out. Dont overthink it.

[BeenPounding]

14 hours ago, MHS831 said:

 

I was scrolling X (Twitter) and I came across this clip....If I shows up here I'd be shocked.  Anyway it was supposed to highlight the blocking ability of Antonio Williams.  All I noticed is how well Blake Miller moved on pulls and in space.  I'm thinking it should be Miller Time in Carolina. I think with half a season of coaching that either Miller or Iheanachor could end up at LT, specifically Iheanachor with his footwork and those super long arms.  He's raw, but that could be a good thing with those natural athletic gifts.

 

https://x.com/NFL_DF/status/2033992963659796861?s=20

[MHS831]

On 3/17/2026 at 3:39 AM, csx said:

Build from trenches out. Dont overthink it.

Good thought and I agree.  Nothing about this process compromises that premise. In fact, the process involves meeting more needs so you can do that. 

If I can get an Edge on a rookie contract when my biggest need is LB, then I have enough $$ saved on the overall cap to get an elite rookie edge in the draft and sign a veteran LB in free agency. If I draft the LB first, my biggest need, then my savings against the cap (when looking at the 53-man roster) is minimal.  I have not saved enough $$ to sign the edge in free agency, so I have to try to draft the edge later, getting a lesser player.  Even if you draft an edge and the roster is full of them, you have trade capital because a lot of teams need a good edge.  This lends credence to the BPA theory if it is aligned with positions that are expensive on second contracts.

In the cap era, you have to think it through-it is like a puzzle.   That is why I did not like it when Marty was drafting RBs (Willliams and Stewart) in the first round.  If you recall, that necessitated moving up for Otah, trading away next year's first rounder to do so.  That is the draft we really needed an edge, but since we did not have a first rounder, we took Everette Brown to fill that need.  Then it got worse.  We had 2 RBs on second contracts, Brown busted, that led to drafting Clausen, etc. 

If you can get 2 starters for the price of one, that is what I would call smart--not overthinking, if I understand you.  I do agree, but that does not mean draft your trench players first.   It could mean draft an edge and use the cap savings to sign a trench player.

[ECHornet]

I would attack it with a hybrid BPA approach. I’m sure most NFL organizations do. 
 

Create tiered lists of players. 
 

Generational/HOF potential

All Pro potential

Pro Bowl potential

Average starter potential

Borderline starter potential

Depth role player

 

If you have only one player in the highest tier available, select him as BPA. If you have multiple players to choose from in the highest tier remaining, factor in positional value and team needs.

[strato]

We might want to find someone to cover Sadiq when TB takes him. 

[Jon Snow]

2 hours ago, strato said:

We might want to find someone to cover Sadiq when TB takes him. 

Then draft Thieneman. He’s faster than AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson and runs as fast as Sadiq. Jumps as high as well.

[firefox1234]

33 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Then draft Thieneman. He’s faster than AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson and runs as fast as Sadiq. Jumps as high as well.

Perfect choice since they were college teammates. No doubt Thieneman has experience guarding Sadiq.

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, firefox1234 said:

Perfect choice since they were college teammates. No doubt Thieneman has experience guarding Sadiq.

Exactly.

[Basbear]

On 3/17/2026 at 3:39 AM, csx said:

Build from trenches out. Dont overthink it.

I think Andy Reid taught me a lesson many moons ago. I always seem to find myself with a small group of players at the draft spot and thus more confused than normal. Andy- draft DL, you can not go wrong. They rotate more than other spots and get injuries more as well. Mind spark, "yes he's right". Thus I formed some draft "rules" over the years. Then college rules changed as well, thus les time for OL to learn the position.

There's 3 spots I feel you need to draft every year- WR, OL, and DL. Of course not "100%", just each draft pool use 3 out of the 8 picks on those 3 is a good method. Each for different reasons, but Andy started it with his wisdom. 

[csx]

3 hours ago, Basbear said:

I think Andy Reid taught me a lesson many moons ago. I always seem to find myself with a small group of players at the draft spot and thus more confused than normal. Andy- draft DL, you can not go wrong. They rotate more than other spots and get injuries more as well. Mind spark, "yes he's right". Thus I formed some draft "rules" over the years. Then college rules changed as well, thus les time for OL to learn the position.

There's 3 spots I feel you need to draft every year- WR, OL, and DL. Of course not "100%", just each draft pool use 3 out of the 8 picks on those 3 is a good method. Each for different reasons, but Andy started it with his wisdom. 

Exactly. I heard that philosophy attributed to Reid back when he was still in Philadelphia. 

Nobody ever says ...."wow this team has a strong TE group they can compete with anyone"

You win starting in the trenches. Everton team is always needing a lineman so if you are gifted with more than you need you have trade capital. 

Edited 14 hours ago by csx

[firefox1234]

Can’t go wrong with a hog molly.

[strato]

Okay I hear Ed Oliver and Aaron Donald. Is that realistic?  I been sleeping on this guy. 

Edited 2 hours ago by strato

[Bear Hands]

Re: the safety talk - There's a range of roles they fall into.  And depending where on the spectrum, the value can absolutely align R1, but its rare.  If you identify one that can play 80% snaps off the bat and has the skillset for robber and slot roles, then it aligns.  The best slot a lot of the time (Hamilton, Branch, Emman, Pitre) 

It can be tantalizing but many of the time, those defenses were in a good spot already (BAL, SEA, HOU for example)   

And for a Fangio-esque defense running two-high-shell, heavy zone w/simulated pressures, and primarily 5 and 6 DB packages, having a guy that can adapt on a package-to-package basis is huge.  If you find a guy that can play back, play robber, and play as a slot-defender all in one is one of the most valuable types in the NFL.  Inversely, if you don't play that way, a FS has very minimal value.  Overall, I would say there is still more inherent value in a 3 down DL or edge rusher. 

The nice thing about landing one is we have Ransom to pull back deep when they're in the slot.  There's a few in R2 that could be interesting in this respect.  

 

[Khyber53]

On 3/16/2026 at 5:33 PM, Growl said:

fans view “box safety” with the same disdain they have when they hear “game manager” QB.

but there’s a reason most 1st round safeties are “box safeties”-it’s a much longer list of requisite skills to be a good box safety than it is to be a guy whose only real responsibility is to not get beat over the top.

Fans crave the ed reed type and as someone who has never been able to enjoy this franchise having a guy like that, I get the enthusiasm-but I’m not really prepared to spend a first round pick on a free safety. If it happens it’ll be fun, it’ll address a need with a good player and that’s well and good. But those guys end up walking after their first contract because their pedigree usually outpaces what their teams feel like they’re adding to their overall win total.

Good mention here of Ed Reed. He's the prototype and there's never been another one that was really up to his level. Just like, on a more local note, Luke was that guy for MLB. Chasing the position, hoping for that kind of player can be troublesome. It's why those guys have gold jackets and the thousands upon thousands of other good to really good players don't.

Your first round pick HAS to be either a game breaker like one of those guys, guaranteed, or needs to be a solid, multi-year starter in a position of need AND, as the OP stated, a cost savings overall. And the OP made a heck of a good case for OT and DT being right in line for us.

Still... can you catch a falling star? A lot of teams break their future trying to reach for one.