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Interesting Insider Note

fieryprophet

By fieryprophet,
in Carolina Panthers

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fieryprophet Contributor

fieryprophet

Posted
Posted

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7326424/by-how-much-tim-The Golden Calf of Bristol-overperforming-season-nfl?addata=2009_insdr_mod_nfl_xxx_xxx

On the flip side of the teams overachieving thanks to their QB play are the QBs whose teammates are letting them down, resulting in fewer team wins than would be expected given their Total QBR.

Most Wins Below Expected as starting QB this season:

Cam Newton CAR

Expected Wins: 6.7

Actual Wins: 4

Difference: -2.7

It's no surprise that No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton heads up this list. He's been playing very well all season -- average Total QBR of 56.1, including a career-high 91.3 on Sunday in Tampa Bay -- on an otherwise poor Carolina team.

If you're trying to decide between Newton and Andy Dalton for rookie of the year, make sure you look beyond the simple team W-L and take into account that Newton's performance would on average translate to 6.7 wins over 12 games. Dalton's play (45.2 average Total QBR) translates to about 5.4 wins, but his team is 7-5 because the Bengals are playing well in other areas.

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footballisasport Newbie

footballisasport

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A simple minded person like myself figured that one out.

If Cam was Blaine, or Luck, everyone in the sports world would be screaming for the Panthers to step up their game for them. Just keeping it real.

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Devoid Newbie

Devoid

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Expected Wins: 6.7: He either got his stats from carolinahuddle.com or he is a member. Last I checked Vegas had Panthers over/under at 4.5 wins and most people had thought that was high. I don't have insider so can someone explain where this number comes from.

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fieryprophet Contributor

fieryprophet

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Expected Wins: 6.7: He either got his stats from carolinahuddle.com or he is a member. Last I checked Vegas had Panthers over/under at 4.5 wins and most people had thought that was high. I don't have insider so can someone explain where this number comes from.

They're basing it on their 82% correlation between QBR ratings and team wins. Cam's QBR is high enough to indicate that we should have 6.7 wins over 12 games rather than four.

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tiger7_88 Experienced

tiger7_88

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They're basing it on their 82% correlation between QBR ratings and team wins. Cam's QBR is high enough to indicate that we should have 6.7 wins over 12 games rather than four.

What genius formula came up with the conclusion that the QB was the one responsible for not meeting their expected win threshold?

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fieryprophet Contributor

fieryprophet

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What genius formula came up with the conclusion that the QB was the one responsible for not meeting their expected win threshold?

Actually, if you read the actual quote I linked to, you'd see they were saying the exact opposite. They said that Cam's team has let him down compared to the quality of his play, not vice versa.

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panthers55 Grand Master

panthers55

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What genius formula came up with the conclusion that the QB was the one responsible for not meeting their expected win threshold?

Just the opposite. They are saying that if the team were playing as well as he were, we should have won more games. Based on his numbers compared to the win totals for other teams with quarterbacks performing as well as him, we should have more wins in the first 12 weeks. At least I think that is what they are saying........

FP was in there before I was.... LOL

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KARASMATIC444 Newbie

KARASMATIC444

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Just the opposite. They are saying that if the team were playing as well as he were, we should have won more games. Based on his numbers compared to the win totals for other teams with quarterbacks performing as well as him, we should have more wins in the first 12 weeks. At least I think that is what they are saying........

FP was in there before I was.... LOL

Good thing they have a complicated formula to tell us what is plain as day to see. I wonder if they got one that shows, more people drive through green lights than red.

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