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Why bother franchising Josh if we don't want him long term?


t96

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I've always felt this way about the franchise tag: It should never be used as a one year rental. It should be used to allow more time for negotiation. It's called the franchise tag for a reason--it's purpose is to be used on a "franchise" player. Gettleman clearly has used it as a rental with Hardy (though we don't really know if he'd have tried to keep Hardy if not for the domestic violence situation. Voth and Jeremy have indicated that keeping him was never in the plans so I'll assume that's the case but we don't know for sure) and seems poised to use it again on Josh, while all indications are that he doesn't want to pay to keep Josh here for more than a year.

 

So if that's the case, why bother with the 1 year rental? Why not keep that cap space to either have carry over or to sign players who can contribute for more than a year? Or, the best option in my opinion, try to franchise him and then trade him and get a 1st or 2nd round pick out of it. Sure I'd love to franchise him and get another team to give us two 1sts for him, but that doesn't happen. I get that without Josh our corner situation is shaky to say the least and he was a crucial part of our team's success this year, but as DG has said, "you're never one player away." That idea is not real. Josh wouldn't be the piece that makes or breaks the team. We should do what's in the best interest of the team in the long run, and franchising Josh and having him play 1 year here on a rental would make no sense in the long run. I trust DG for the most part, but not sure I agree with the one year rental idea if he truly does believe in that. What are your thoughts on this?

 

And in my opinion Josh is a core player here and integral to our success, and I'd pay him $13-14M/year if that's what it takes to keep him here for another 3-5 years. But it seems extremely unlikely that we're going to extend him.

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1 year older at his age gets us some more leverage in the negotiation.  His value increasing during the course of next season is less likely than it decreasing.  That being said, I'm not sure which other top corners in the league are free agents that could sign deals that have a market changing impact between now and this time next year.

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He is worth $13-14M for each of the next two years. He will in all likelihood not be worth $13-14M in three years when he loses a step at age 31. He is not going to sign a 2 year deal. He is going to want at least 4 years and most likely he will want 5 years so instead we can just franchise him twice then let him go to the highest bidder in 2018 which means we will only pay him what he is worth rather than overpaying for him in years 3-5.

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I said Revis garnered the #13 overall pick but what I forgot was that it also included a 4th/conditional 3rd AND an absurd 6 years $96 million.  According to the trade value chart, that'd be about equivalent to the #8 overall pick.  Who has the #8 overall pick?  The Dolphins, a team typically eager to make a big splash.  Their biggest need, by FAR?  Corner.  It would take some pretty good massaging of their cap by my estimation but it's good to be informed and I can't say I wouldn't at least make a call if I'm GMan.

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2 minutes ago, Cam El said:

Also don't forget there are rules about how much teams HAVE to spend. Something like 95% (98?) of the cap over a given period (3, 4, 5 years?). I would think that factors in. Spend $14 million on Josh this year helps get to the threshold,  then that money is freed up next year. 

It's 89% but we are decently well below it right now. Tagging Josh and a Short extension this offseason should cover it with the big bonuses given to Cam and Luke last offseason.

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You get a top end corner for 1.4 this season and 14M next with no long term money on the books.

Average that out and you have about 7.5M spread over this season and next for an elite outside guy.  Let him walk after next year when his age is getting up there.

Or....sign him to a Revis type deal.  Those are your options.

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5 minutes ago, Bartin said:

It's 89% but we are decently well below it right now. Tagging Josh and a Short extension this offseason should cover it with the big bonuses given to Cam and Luke last offseason.

Okay,  a good bit lower than I thought. Thought we were below it though. 

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Just now, Cam El said:

Okay,  a good bit lower than I thought. Thought we were below it though. 

It's weird because it's not percentage of the cap used. We would be well over if that was the case. You have to pay out 89% of the cap in cash during the 4 year time period. Since we gave out a bunch of huge signing bonuses the year before it went into effect, the prorated portion of those counts against the cap but it doesn't count in the cash paid during the 4 year period since the money was paid prior to the period starting. Same thing happened with the Patriots.

From my perspective it doesn't really matter if we hit the threshold because all that happens is the shortfall in cash paid out has to be paid to the NFLPA who in turn divides the money up and pays it out to players that were on the team during that time period and there are no penalties on the cap from it. Jerry probably wouldn't be too thrilled about it but from a fan's perspective it really doesn't matter and just puts some more money in the players' pockets rather than in Jerry's.

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The odds of him having another like this one are slim (hope Im wrong) so it's in his interest to get as much guaranteed as possible from us right now.  If he holds out for top dollar he gets tagged.  We sure as fug can't afford to just let him leave for nothing when we've got gobs of cap space this offseason.

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