For the Panthers now, and Cam's future, Shula has to go

[electro's horse]

Let's take a step back and quickly review how we got to this point. 

In January 2011, Jerry Richardson gave his post season speech and talked primarily about how boring John Fox football had become. Over the next few weeks, they would hire one of the brightest up and coming offensive coordinators in the league and go about building the 2011 offense. It's very important that Chud was hired not as subservient to Rivera, but as the head coach of the offense. It was a symbiotic relationship. Rivera would retain the right to go for it on fourth (lol never) but he had nothing to do with the philosophy on the other side of the ball. This was because, and I reiterate this, from a business stand point, Jerry was willing to accept that boring as John Fox football was hurting his bottom line. 

They acquired Greg Olsen, signed Jeremy Shockey, drafted Cam Newton, and installed an aggressive, two tight end, downfield passing offense with their running threat QB. To this day, Cam has never thrown as many passes in a season than he did in 2011. At the time, a story was passed around from Ron Rivera's days in San Diego. In his first season as a starter, Phillip Rivers threw the ball over 400 times on a team with Ladanian Tomlinson (back then this was a ton of passes). When asked why they did that, Schottenheimer said "We're going to need him to be able to do this next season." Cam was treated the same way. 

2012 didn't go as planned. Defense kinda collapsed on itself, got old in lots of places, dead cap space problems, Chudzinski kinda had his eye on the prize (lol the Browns) and things unraveled. Chud tried to get really cute, there was a season worth of tape, Cam had his very predictable second year growing pains, etc. Moving into 2013, instead of bringing in Hue Jackson, another highly thought of up and coming offensive coordinator, they decided to promote Mike Shula. At the time it was to "keep the system in tact," which was immediately disproven since they abandoned the two tight end base sets and began running FAR more read option. 

Mike Shula, before last season, has had a remarkably undistinguished coaching career. In fact, if his last name was different, he'd probably be selling retail insurance in Idaho somewhere. He was useless in Tampa in his first gig as a coordinator, and was fired from Alabama from being too conservative (let that sink in). He was promoted in large part on the suggestion of Rivera, who sensed in him someone he could control. Rivera is very old school, and he still wants to run the ball and play strong defense, which is still the same thing Jerry REALLY wants for similar reasons. This is how football is to them. Hue Jackson is a wildcard and notoriously difficult to get along with. Shula is just happy to be there. And with Shula, they could propose to their boss something that would satisfy his contradictory desires. 

We could base our offense on the run, but run the read option with Cam as an extra literal running back, and use the deep pass as a compliment. Running the ball and excitement! Huzzah!

Now, the numbers don't really bear this out until last season, but the change was obvious to see. Instead of having Cam as a QB that could run, they turned him into a running back who could throw. Oh sure, they said all the right things about learning his progressions, working on footwork, blah blah blah, but on gameday they were using him as a lead runner. Cam Newton, the first round pick, the most valuable player in Carolina sports history, was running off tackle. They turned their most valuable asset into the most fungible position in the NFL. 

Now there's a lot of other things going on here: Rivera's maturation as a coach, Hurney getting fired, Gettleman reshaping the team, etc, but I want to focus on Shula.

Shula's not a creative guy. It took him three years to craft this offense, struggling through two relatively blasé, inconsistent years defined mostly by his inability to make any kind of adjustment in game. There's a simple reason for that; Rivera and Shula believe if properly executed, the offense should be unstoppable. That's a recurring theme with Panthers coaches, and there's another thread in me about that at a later date, but let's move on to last season. 

Cam ran the ball over 130 times last year, by far the most of his career. Now yes, it eventually became one of the better offenses in the NFL, but the cost was severe. Keep in mind, this isn't Russell Wilson running the ball. He's not scrambling away from big hits. We're a very long way from that two tight end, force them into nickel and dime packages, spread them out and pick your battles offense. Shula has turned Cam into a battering ram. These are runs between tackles. This is putting Cam, as big and great as he is, into harms way nearly ten times a game, something unthinkable for any other QB in the league. 

Now here we are, to the point of this thread. Cam has absorbed over 900 hits over the course of his career. Many of these are more severe than anything another QB will ever have, because of how he's been utilized. It should be clear that we can't continue on this path. For one, teams have figured out how to stop it, and it's primarily to kill shot him every chance they get. Cam isn't very good at sliding, and even if he did I don't suspect it would stop defenders. The refs have completely failed to protect him, because his playing style exists in this vague grey area between "save the QB" and "murder all running backs." This sort of internal contradiction had bled over into other parts of the game, where even within the pocket Cam is treated differently. Refs are human and are susceptible to bias just like any of us. We've seen now Cam be concussed in two games this season (Denver) with no repercussion for the defenders. This will continue, even if the refs cut down on it. The book is out on Cam. Kill him. 

To say nothing of the kill shots, the repeated blows of diving into the lines are going to wear him down. NFL careers don't just end on catastrophic ligament tears; just as often its death by a thousand cuts. With QBs, the typical train of thought is to prolong their careers as much as possible, and do everything in your power to do that. The Panthers are doing the opposite with Cam. The offense Shula has been implementing is actively shortening Cam's career. Furthermore, it doesn't look like Cam likes getting hit anymore, and who can blame him. We can see him limping around on the field, slowly getting up, looking dazed and confused. The guy has taken a beating and is starting to tune out. Clearly, something has to change.

And that brings me to my final point. Typically, QBs develop inside their offensive systems. As they gain a greater grasp of it, more wrinkles are added. Eventually you want someone like Brady or Roethlisberger who know it inside and out, so they can throw with their eyes closed. They just know everything about it. Cam cannot survive in this offense anymore. He will not make it through a season moving forward. Growing within the offense is to grow closer to the light in the tunnel. Whether that light in this metaphor is death or the upcoming train is a difference without a distinction. They need to move away from Cam the running back who throws, and back to Cam the quarterback who runs. Shula is not the person to do this. 

Mike Shula is a bad offensive coordinator for many reasons, not all of which are listed here. I've been banging the drum on him even when things were going well, because I knew he was still the same talentless hack. He's a formerly failed NFL offensive coordinator who was run out of Alabama, and finally got a college offense to work in the pros, with the help of the most freakish QB talent of all time. You can run these college offenses in college, because every four years your team is going to be completely different. You never have to deal with the reality that bodies fall apart. 

The Panthers are facing this reality right now. Regardless of the situation at tackle, regardless of the situation with Tolbert, the Panthers simply cannot continue to play Cam Newton like a player they intend to release after his rookie deal is up. They need to reexamine how they approach games, how they design offenses, and how they use their best player. I don't know if that coach is on the roster currently. I do know, however, that it isn't Mike Shula. 

The Panthers have a bye after the Saints game. New Orleans is one of the worst defenses the league has ever seen, but will be trying to take Cam out, if he plays. The result of the game not withstanding, the Panthers should make the move immediately afterwards. Fire Shula, promote either Dorsey or Proehl, and let them have two weeks to do what they can. This season is shot, sad to say. Yes, they had a worse record in 2004 and nearly made the playoffs, but there's too many holes on this team. Use the rest of the season to evaluate the talent on the staff. 

Gettleman and Rivera have clearly done that in the past with their players. Do the same with your coaches. 

[pstall]

If you fire Shula after the season they had last year there better be immediate results. 

I hope they figure something out muy pronto.

[Snake]

You leave out one thing. Cam likes to run and blame can't be left off him. We do need a better OC, a OC that will tell Cam he needs to preserve his body. 

[Mr. Scot]

12 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

Gettleman and Rivera have clearly done that in the past with their players. Do the same with your coaches. 

I don't see Rivera dumping Shula, even if he should.

I don't see Gettleman stepping in and forcing Rivera to fire a coach, even if he should.

Rivera's never been good at personnel evaluation with players or with coaches. I'm not confident he sees where the problems are.

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

Everything you said is spot on and also spells out why I don't think anything will change.

[Snake]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

I don't see Rivera dumping Shula, even if he should.

I don't see Gettleman stepping in and forcing Rivera to fire a coach, even if he should.

Rivera's never been good at personnel evaluation with players or with coaches. I'm not confident he sees where the problems are.

If anything DG steps in. He's here to buffer Rivera. 

[Anybodyhome]

The takeaway:

6 years, $118.47M.  2016 is a $13M + $10M option bonus year for your MVP, Super Bowl QB and you're running him off tackle. 

Any other OC would be taken out back and shot. 

 

 

6/2/2015: Signed a six-year, $118.47 million contract. The deal contains $60 million guaranteed, including a $22.5 million signing bonus and a first-year roster bonus of $7.5 million. 2016: $13 million (+ $10 million option bonus), 2017: $13.166 million (+ $500,000 workout bonus), 2018: $14.5 million (+ $500,000 workout bonus), 2019: $16.2 million (+ $500,000 workout bonus), 2020: $18.6 million (+ $500,000 workout bonus), 2021: Free Agent

[Harbingers]

The coaching staff that brought you three consecutive NFCS titles? Huh, genius. 

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

The coaching staff that brought you three consecutive NFCS titles? Huh, genius. 

The approach has worked. No doubt about that.

But it's a valid question to ask how long you can keep that going.

Despite the Superman label, Newton isn't invincible. If he wants to have longevity in the league, he's going to have to change his style.

And if the coaches aren't trying to get him to do that, then who will?

[tiger7_88]

33 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

Let's take a step back and quickly review how we got to this point. 

In January 2011, Jerry Richardson gave his post season speech and talked primarily about how boring John Fox football had become. Over the next few weeks, they would hire one of the brightest up and coming offensive coordinators in the league and go about building the 2011 offense. It's very important that Chud was hired not as subservient to Rivera, but as the head coach of the offense. It was a symbiotic relationship. Rivera would retain the right to go for it on fourth (lol never) but he had nothing to do with the philosophy on the other side of the ball. This was because, and I reiterate this, from a business stand point, Jerry was willing to accept that boring as John Fox football was hurting his bottom line. 

They acquired Greg Olsen, signed Jeremy Shockey, drafted Cam Newton, and installed an aggressive, two tight end, downfield passing offense with their running threat QB. To this day, Cam has never thrown as many passes in a season than he did in 2011. At the time, a story was passed around from Ron Rivera's days in San Diego. In his first season as a starter, Phillip Rivers threw the ball over 400 times on a team with Ladanian Tomlinson (back then this was a ton of passes). When asked why they did that, Schottenheimer said "We're going to need him to be able to do this next season." Cam was treated the same way. 

2012 didn't go as planned. Defense kinda collapsed on itself, got old in lots of places, dead cap space problems, Chudzinski kinda had his eye on the prize (lol the Browns) and things unraveled. Chud tried to get really cute, there was a season worth of tape, Cam had his very predictable second year growing pains, etc. Moving into 2013, instead of bringing in Hue Jackson, another highly thought of up and coming offensive coordinator, they decided to promote Mike Shula. At the time it was to "keep the system in tact," which was immediately disproven since they abandoned the two tight end base sets and began running FAR more read option. 

Mike Shula, before last season, has had a remarkably undistinguished coaching career. In fact, if his last name was different, he'd probably be selling retail insurance in Idaho somewhere. He was useless in Tampa in his first gig as a coordinator, and was fired from Alabama from being too conservative (let that sink in). He was promoted in large part on the suggestion of Rivera, who sensed in him someone he could control. Rivera is very old school, and he still wants to run the ball and play strong defense, which is still the same thing Jerry REALLY wants for similar reasons. This is how football is to them. Hue Jackson is a wildcard and notoriously difficult to get along with. Shula is just happy to be there. And with Shula, they could propose to their boss something that would satisfy his contradictory desires. 

We could base our offense on the run, but run the read option with Cam as an extra literal running back, and use the deep pass as a compliment. Running the ball and excitement! Huzzah!

Now, the numbers don't really bear this out until last season, but the change was obvious to see. Instead of having Cam as a QB that could run, they turned him into a running back who could throw. Oh sure, they said all the right things about learning his progressions, working on footwork, blah blah blah, but on gameday they were using him as a lead runner. Cam Newton, the first round pick, the most valuable player in Carolina sports history, was running off tackle. They turned their most valuable asset into the most fungible position in the NFL. 

Now there's a lot of other things going on here: Rivera's maturation as a coach, Hurney getting fired, Gettleman reshaping the team, etc, but I want to focus on Shula.

Shula's not a creative guy. It took him three years to craft this offense, struggling through two relatively blasé, inconsistent years defined mostly by his inability to make any kind of adjustment in game. There's a simple reason for that; Rivera and Shula believe if properly executed, the offense should be unstoppable. That's a recurring theme with Panthers coaches, and there's another thread in me about that at a later date, but let's move on to last season. 

Cam ran the ball over 130 times last year, by far the most of his career. Now yes, it eventually became one of the better offenses in the NFL, but the cost was severe. Keep in mind, this isn't Russell Wilson running the ball. He's not scrambling away from big hits. We're a very long way from that two tight end, force them into nickel and dime packages, spread them out and pick your battles offense. Shula has turned Cam into a battering ram. These are runs between tackles. This is putting Cam, as big and great as he is, into harms way nearly ten times a game, something unthinkable for any other QB in the league. 

Now here we are, to the point of this thread. Cam has absorbed over 900 hits over the course of his career. Many of these are more severe than anything another QB will ever have, because of how he's been utilized. It should be clear that we can't continue on this path. For one, teams have figured out how to stop it, and it's primarily to kill shot him every chance they get. Cam isn't very good at sliding, and even if he did I don't suspect it would stop defenders. The refs have completely failed to protect him, because his playing style exists in this vague grey area between "save the QB" and "murder all running backs." This sort of internal contradiction had bled over into other parts of the game, where even within the pocket Cam is treated differently. Refs are human and are susceptible to bias just like any of us. We've seen now Cam be concussed in two games this season (Denver) with no repercussion for the defenders. This will continue, even if the refs cut down on it. The book is out on Cam. Kill him. 

To say nothing of the kill shots, the repeated blows of diving into the lines are going to wear him down. NFL careers don't just end on catastrophic ligament tears; just as often its death by a thousand cuts. With QBs, the typical train of thought is to prolong their careers as much as possible, and do everything in your power to do that. The Panthers are doing the opposite with Cam. The offense Shula has been implementing is actively shortening Cam's career. Furthermore, it doesn't look like Cam likes getting hit anymore, and who can blame him. We can see him limping around on the field, slowly getting up, looking dazed and confused. The guy has taken a beating and is starting to tune out. Clearly, something has to change.

And that brings me to my final point. Typically, QBs develop inside their offensive systems. As they gain a greater grasp of it, more wrinkles are added. Eventually you want someone like Brady or Roethlisberger who know it inside and out, so they can throw with their eyes closed. They just know everything about it. Cam cannot survive in this offense anymore. He will not make it through a season moving forward. Growing within the offense is to grow closer to the light in the tunnel. Whether that light in this metaphor is death or the upcoming train is a difference without a distinction. They need to move away from Cam the running back who throws, and back to Cam the quarterback who runs. Shula is not the person to do this. 

Mike Shula is a bad offensive coordinator for many reasons, not all of which are listed here. I've been banging the drum on him even when things were going well, because I knew he was still the same talentless hack. He's a formerly failed NFL offensive coordinator who was run out of Alabama, and finally got a college offense to work in the pros, with the help of the most freakish QB talent of all time. You can run these college offenses in college, because every four years your team is going to be completely different. You never have to deal with the reality that bodies fall apart. 

The Panthers are facing this reality right now. Regardless of the situation at tackle, regardless of the situation with Tolbert, the Panthers simply cannot continue to play Cam Newton like a player they intend to release after his rookie deal is up. They need to reexamine how they approach games, how they design offenses, and how they use their best player. I don't know if that coach is on the roster currently. I do know, however, that it isn't Mike Shula. 

The Panthers have a bye after the Saints game. New Orleans is one of the worst defenses the league has ever seen, but will be trying to take Cam out, if he plays. The result of the game not withstanding, the Panthers should make the move immediately afterwards. Fire Shula, promote either Dorsey or Proehl, and let them have two weeks to do what they can. This season is shot, sad to say. Yes, they had a worse record in 2004 and nearly made the playoffs, but there's too many holes on this team. Use the rest of the season to evaluate the talent on the staff. 

Gettleman and Rivera have clearly done that in the past with their players. Do the same with your coaches. 

Bravo!

Bra-fugging-vo!

A Gold Star for you, sir!

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

16 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I don't see Rivera dumping Shula, even if he should.

I don't see Gettleman stepping in and forcing Rivera to fire a coach, even if he should.

Rivera's never been good at personnel evaluation with players or with coaches. I'm not confident he sees where the problems are.

something to consider is that, if gettleman steps in and forces shula out, there's a good chance that it will set the end of the rivera era in motion.  he will have undermined ron's authority in a very big, very public way and that's very hard if not impossible to undo.  it would be like the final seasons of fox's tenure when things slowly but surely unraveled.

[frash.exe]

lol all of us agree that he should be selling insurance

[TheRed]

Shula does need to go. But it wasn't Mike who decided to roll the dice with this OL after watching Cam get shithoused twice by Denver.

[frash.exe]

One thing that frustrates me till no end as a fan of this team is how we never ever ever make offensive success a priority. Like you can't have both a good defense and a good offense.