On Christian McCaffrey - On The Cusp Of A Big Play?

[Borat]

1 hour ago, uncfan888 said:

PFF means nothing to me. If you watched that eagles game and saw them continually get hit as soon as they got the ball, then you'd know that ranking is a joke. 

It's pre-Eagles game -- RB performances weren't great before then, either. And anyways, not every loss behind the LOS is the OL's fault. 

1) Premium, paid football analytics company site says OL is well-above average (and, implicitly, that rushing issues are a result of RB underperformance). 

2) Guy on forum says that line sucks, and that RB performance would be (at least) fine with an 'average' OL.

I'm leaning towards #2. 

[Shocker]

2 minutes ago, uncfan888 said:

PFF means nothing to me. If you watched that eagles game and saw them continually get hit as soon as they got the ball, then you'd know that ranking is a joke. 

The Eagles have a great DL.  So we just walk them off the ball?  You know nothing uncfan.

[KendrickPanther]

He's having a great year. Statistics have a lot to do with game management and team performance. You cannot watch him as an individual and think he isn't playing well. 

[electro's horse]

58 minutes ago, uncfan888 said:

It's not like anyone else could with our line 

Stewart has in fact rushed for more than 20 yards 5 out of 6 games. 

[GoobyPls]

Doubt it, Mccaffrey is the worst player in the nfl at breaking tackles, his literally last in tackles broken per touch.

[electro's horse]

7 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

Doubt it, Mccaffrey is the worst player in the nfl at breaking tackles, his literally last in tackles broken per touch.

please link me that.

[Saca312]

1 hour ago, Borat said:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-by-average-grade-week-5

Panthers #2 overall, "most successful when running a man-blocking scheme this season, as they average 2.42 yards before contact on these runs, third-highest in the league."

Though PFF is by no means perfect, it seems more likely that there is some other piston that isn't firing. Stewart is in his 10th season, ancient for a tailback, and McCaffrey simply isn't producing as expected, even if (as the OP is doing) you redefine "missing catches/getting tackled/otherwise failing to make a play" as "bad luck." 

A Stewart replacement is a must in the draft or FA next summer for the Panthers, IMO. McCaffrey is already a good receiver/gadget player, and will likely become great. But he can't be counted on to run between the tackles ~20x per game. 

No one takes PFF o-line grades seriously.

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2017/09/13/tj-lang-pro-football-focus-is-absolute-garbage/

Quote

In fact, he thinks the advanced analysis website is “absolute garbage,” especially when it comes to grading linemen.

“My opinion is there’s no way you can possibly accurately grade offensive linemen if you haven’t done that job before in your life. A lot of these guys, they’re not qualified to be grading NFL players,” Lang told the Valenti Show on 97.1 The Ticket. “A lot of the stuff I realize is pretty basic, obvious information. If I clearly just get whooped and let up a sack, you can say, ‘Yeah, that guy let up a sack.'”

Otherwise, he believes, the so-called experts are in over their heads.

“But they don’t know anything about identification, what offensive linemen are supposed to do. They think if a guy blitzes off the edge, that’s automatically the tackle’s block, but a lot of times that’s not the case. They’ve always graded me well, which I don’t mind, but I still don’t respect it,” Lang said.

Apparently, most NFL players feel the same way.

“I know most of the guys that I’ve played with absolutely hate it, just because it’s started to gain so much steam now where Sunday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, they’re actually showing stats up there for the players,” said Lang. “I think it’s absolute garbage and I think most players do.”

I can tell you our guys up front are terrible against the run.

Here's a look at nextgen stats on the issue:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000860683/article/christian-mccaffrey-panthers-run-game-disappoint

Quote

Against the Eagles, Carolina's running backs averaged -2.15 yards before defenders closed within one yard of them (NFL average - 0.37), the lowest for any team all season. Not so coincidently, before this game, the worst team performance was indeed the Panthers with a -1.9 average against the Lions last week. The issues with Carolina's run blocking becomes more exacerbated with each passing week. On the year, Carolina carries the fourth-lowest average yards gained before defenders close within a yard at a -0.29 average.

 

[Bartin]

I’ve felt like he was so close to breaking one about 12-15 times this year but he still hasn’t done it yet. The longer it takes, the more I worry that it’s not something he is really going to be able to do with any sort of regularity.

[Borat]

Just now, Saca312 said:

No one takes PFF o-line grades seriously.

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2017/09/13/tj-lang-pro-football-focus-is-absolute-garbage/

I can tell you our guys up front are terrible against the run.

Here's a look at nextgen stats on the issue:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000860683/article/christian-mccaffrey-panthers-run-game-disappoint

 

Are they ~30 positions off on their ranking, as some posters are implying, though? Regardless of what TJ Lang thinks, he's made over 35MM (with ~18 to come) playing guard in this league, and has always ranked highly on PFF's metrics. Pretty tough to disprove the null hypothesis that they're a decent estimation of performance, with Lang or any other anecdotal case. 

As for your stats, "average yards gained before defenders close within a yard"" isn't entirely (or arguably even the majority) the OL's responsibility -- I would gain very few yards before defenders closed in behind any line, for example. Either an OL issue or struggling RBs makes the rushing game a non-starter behind the LOS, and I don't think you can definitively point to the former as the cause -- the evidence seems to be slanted towards the latter, in fact. 

[Saca312]

1 minute ago, Borat said:

Either an OL issue or struggling RBs makes the rushing game a non-starter behind the LOS, and I don't think you can definitively point to the former as the cause -- the evidence seems to be slanted towards the latter, in fact. 

Recommend reading this. 

https://theriotreport.com/running-into-it-what-went-wrong-against-the-ealges/

Evidence overwhelmingly shows it's an o-line issue.

[CarolinaSamurai]

I believe the blocking and misdirection of our offense to be a big culprit in our bad run game. In the end we need to simplify and stop trying to be so tricky in our calls. 

[Dragoon11]

56 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Recommend reading this. 

https://theriotreport.com/running-into-it-what-went-wrong-against-the-ealges/

Evidence overwhelmingly shows it's an o-line issue.

This was pretty eye opening......It's glaringly obvious that Shula's zone blocking scheme turns our linemen into keystone cops. It really is comical watching the plays they highlight. Panthers line just looks awful. I know Eagles have a good D-line, but guys were untouched a lot.....This HAS to get fixed. Definitely KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID applies!!!

[Borat]

1 hour ago, Saca312 said:

Recommend reading this. 

https://theriotreport.com/running-into-it-what-went-wrong-against-the-ealges/

Evidence overwhelmingly shows it's an o-line issue.

A main thrust of the author's argument is that there were 'too many defenders' (and implicitly, more guys should have been blocking) on his selected plays. Issue with that line of reasoning is that if you auto-load the LOS prior to every running play, you become far too predictable -- you've got to run on some 'underblocked' sets to counterbalance that. Statements like "it would be much easier for the Panthers to simply look to pass when the defense loads the box" are not 'overwhelming evidence,' they're un-nuanced platitudes. Good RBs make plays on at least a portion of those types of situations, and succeed pretty regularly when the numerical odds turn to their favor -- Stewart and McCaffrey did nothing under duress, and haven't made much happen under 'normal' blocking cirucmstances either. 

Additionally, both RBs are noticeably slow hitting the hole in a couple of his selected instances, and/or said holes close before they get there. Hard to tell whether that's a line or an RB issue, but the blog's author seems to be working with a predetermined assumption that it's the former. I'm more inclined to go with an objective (albeit imperfect) ratings bureau's assessment of the issue, rather than a blogger (who could be) defending the honor of his team's top 10 pick, but I guess we'll find out.  

 

 

 

[micnificent28]

As much as you no one wants to admit it.. He isn't producing near the level we would want at number 8. Looking at the comparison to Fournette whom A lot of us wanted and it isn't even close. I would even say a healthy Davin cook was better.. Not to say all is lost on CMC..He is on a record breaking pace as far as catches go for a rookie.. i'm not sure he will ever be a between the tackles runner he goes down far to easy on  contact..but he is at worse a decent slot receiver...we get quality reps from him on special teams.. and he is a nightmare out of the backfield on passing downs. He is not the future to replace stew..he isn't even as good as deangelo the later years...I hope i'm wrong but this doesn't look like the value pick we wanted at 8.