Changing the Narrative, Vol. 1: #9 vs. #16

[pantherclaw]

Nevermind the draft is a crap shot. Nevermind that there are more busts in the top 10 than the next 10. 

Nevermind all the facts, picking higher is always better!!!

9 comes before 16 idiots!!!!!

 

Lmao

[Icege]

25 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Each individual pick is a lottery, but the draft isn’t a lottery. Stop using “guarantee” to justify saying that pick 16 is just as good as 9. See my example above. John Ross was a loser pick at 9, but Baltimore’s pick at 16 really wasn’t a better pick to have.

You use Ross, but pick 10 was Mahomes, 11 was Lattimore, 12 was Watson, 14 was Barnett and 15 was Hooker. All of them are better than Humphrey at 16 and some of them would have changed Cincinnati’s football team for years. Your cherry picked list completely ignores the talent pool from 10-15 that wasn’t there at 16. I’d hope it’s obvious just in this one year that Cincy sucks at drafting and their pick 9 was way more valuable that Baltimore’s pick at 16.

Take Luke’s year. Between him and Coples was also Stefon Gilmore, Fletcher Cox, Michael Brockers and Bruce Irvin. Pick 9 compared to pick 16 is subjective. Pick 9-15 versus 16 shows the tru difference in value. In both years (I didn’t look at any others), I found high value, multi year game changers/pro-bowlers between 9 and 16. 

The irony of you calling this a cherry picked list while admitting to cherry picking yourself is not lost on me, and I hope that it isn't on you as well. I understand the mindset that you're advocating, I do. Better chance at getting a guy that the team loves, but is 7 selections the difference between a player being an impact? Was Haason Reddick (#13) a better pick than OJ Howard (#19)? TJ Watt (#30)? Budda Baker (#36)? Does anybody here really rage out when they have to pick #9 in their fantasy league instead of #2? There is still high quality talent available. Hell, I snagged CMC in the 2nd and got teased for being a homer buuuuuut that man balled tf out. Having a higher pick just means that the team has a better chance that they get the player that they want rather than the player that they need. That's why it was absolutely ridiculous for folks to sob over a W.

In regards to the latest post you made (we're playing a game of reply ladder here trying to catch up with one another lol), would you also rather have John Ross, Ereck Flowers, and Dee Milliner than Zack Martin, Ryan Kerrigan, and Derrick Morgan? I would argue that the latter three have been mainstays on their respective teams. Also, we are talking about more than just the first round. Human error must absolutely be accounted for. Hell, that Kuechly pick you just referenced, don't you recall how PISSED people here were that we didn't select Coples instead? It was insanity. Now, he's the best mike LB in football. When was the next LB taken? Depending on who you're talking to, Bruce Irvin at #15 and Melvin Ingram at #18 though both could be argued to be edge rushers rather than 4-3 LBs. The point? He could have still been there at 16.

Would it be nice to pick earlier? Sure. Does it mean that we are going to make the correct pick, that the player we want won't go 1-8, etc? No. Does it mean that we are going to get a corner stone player? No. So, imo, folks that were being belligerent about the whole ordeal were out of pocket.

Won't be able to respond any further until after work, but look forward to reading your response!

[Lumps]

Making smart picks is always better than draft position but a higher draft spot puts a GM in a better position to make that smart pick by offering more choices. That’s logic. Doesn’t mean the GM will or is smart enough to. And that’s all this data really means. 

I don’t hold Otah against Hurley. He was well worth trading up for. Straight up mauler who pancakes anyone standing in his way. Unfortunately, as with a lot of abnormally huge o linemen, his body just couldn’t hold up.

[pantherclaw]

26 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Yep. If we pick the right player at 16, no worries. That said, it’s far more likely there will be 2-3 guys from 9-15 that we’d rather have.

Guess what, we'll still be good. 

[stratocatter]

stbugs has a great point. But hopefully there are enough dumb and desperate picks ahead of us that is gives us a shot at getting someone who should have been taken before the 10th pick, but wasn't. There are always dumb picks made, and some that appear smart but weren't when looking back. The worst thing about being that much lower is someone could slip a little and whoever is at 9 will get them before we can.

It is what it is though. We'll do the best we can with a moronic crosseyed mexican and a newspaper columnist calling the shots.

 

Btw, Jerry Rice was taken at 16. Troy Polomalu was also. I'd take that.

[Moneyman321]

After the win Sunday, I was disappointed in fans wanting a loss and was hated on for taking the POV that a few draft spots doesn’t make a big difference.

This fanbase is divided between the true fans who know football and the sorry band wagoners from 2015. 

People get so gung-ho about draft position, when every selection is like rolling a dice at the casino. 

[Shotgun]

1 hour ago, Porn Shop Clerk said:

Silotolu set us back big time.

 

He's the gift that keeps on giving, thanks Ron.

[MechaZain]

so every top 9 pick we've had this century has been elite that's nice to know

[R2-D2]

Bitching about draft position is on the same level of thinking the panthers will get an easier schedule if they lose more games. 

Its useful as an indicator for who’s opinions you can immediately disregard. 

[raz]

anyone that thinks picking at 16 is better than picking at 9 is an idiot.   i mean holy god.   how are our school systems this bad.  it doesn't matter how you try to explain it.  you're an idiot

[CanadianCat]

2 things are true.

1. A higher pick allows for a 'better chance' or at least a better opportunity to get the position and player you want.

2. Its unreasonable to expect that a professional team would purposefully tank. 

 

The logic of people upset that we won is understandable. But the expectation that the players and coaches should have allowed us to lose is dumb. Everyone plays for their jobs (coaches and players). No player is going to miss a tackle to that their team might lose the game and get a better draft position. 

I would not support a team that encouraged themselves to lose games. That's a terrible mentality, especially if its supported by the coach. 

[raz]

if you can't understand that you have 7 more of the top players to choose from at 9 than at 16 you're probably an anti-vaxxer also, believe in chem trails, lizard people, a hollow earth that's also flat...

[Smithers]

1 hour ago, Carolina Cajun said:

Main takeaway is that gettleman fuged us hard in the draft from 2014-2016.  Not a single one will get a second contract from us.

And that right there is why this team is struggling.  You can’t go 3 years without drafting a few major impact players and hope for sustained success.  The good news is the last two drafts have been very good.  But thanks to the three years prior, it might take us another couple years of good drafts before we are where us fans would like us to be.  

[SZ James (banned)]

lol, that poo/pie ratio

all of you are fugin braindead