Albert Breer's Future GM List

[Mr. Scot]

The NFL's Future GMs

Breer does this on an annual basis and it's always good info. Mind you, he's not including guys like Kevin Colbert, but does mention a few other Steeler related guys.

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For 11 years, I’ve written a list of the NFL’s future GMs, and every year the feedback from people on that side of the industry varies. Sometimes there’s a recurring theme; other times, there isn’t. Last year, the resounding question was, Why is the list all scouts?

It’s a fair criticism. We’ve been very scout-heavy here over the last decade, partially because most general managers have that background, some as on-the-road college scouts, others as in-the-office pro scouts. Another reason is that their proficiency is easier to ascertain than that of someone on the cap/analytics side. And there’s no question that most fans want their teams to find the next Ron Wolf.

But focus on that too much, and maybe you miss the next Mickey Loomis or Howie Roseman, who both came up on the cap side and have built title-winning teams.

“Isn’t Howie the great example?” one rival team president said this week. “It’s about combining intellectual power with hiring a great group of scouts. And it’s not like [scouts] solely have a great track record. The analytics boom is getting stronger in the NFL and the guys who will have a shot from cap/analytics standpoint will be those that use that tool, but also built a great scouting staff.”

And man, does that hold up here. Over the last few years, scouting-side GMs have emerged from the staffs of Roseman (Jets GM Joe Douglas, ex-Colts GM Ryan Grigson) and Loomis (Bears GM Ryan Pace), and both have replenished their ranks to the point where you’ll see multiple names from both the Eagles and Saints scouting departments this year.

Joe Person recently stated there's speculation in league circles that Tepper's upcoming front office hire could be an "outside the box" choice, so this is potentially something to pay attention to.
 

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We’re going to have the traditional names on this year’s list. But it’s definitely worth mentioning guys like Omar Khan and Samir Suleiman in Pittsburgh, Jake Rosenberg and Alec Halaby in Philly, Rob Brzezinski in Minnesota, Russ Ball in Green Bay, Mike Greenberg in Tampa and Mike Disner in Detroit.

Philadelphia’s Andrew Berry, with a hybrid background, should also be considered. He’s Harvard-educated, he’s scouted for a decade and he’s worked with Paul DePodesta and Sashi Brown in Cleveland, giving him unique perspective on balancing different sides of team building. He could be ideal for a team like Jacksonville, with the expectation that analytically-minded EVP Tony Khan will be more influential going forward.

But some owners are more comfortable with candidates who have a business background, because so many owners have a similar background. That isn’t a driving force when a team is looking for a GM, but it also isn’t irrelevant.

After all, if a candidate can speak the same language as the owner, he is probably going to be a little more comfortable with that candidate.

Again, this could easily apply to Tepper.

 

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The list becomes tougher and more complex to compile each year for a couple reasons. We covered the first reason above, and I expect the GM search process to become less clear-cut based on that in the years to come. Second, there aren’t seven or eight GMs jobs opening up every year, as is the case on the coaching side, so the pool hasn’t been depleted. Third, I do think these guys continue to get better training for the big jobs than they used to.

If that’s my preamble to telling you good names will be left off here, then so be it. There will be names left off, in interest of keeping the list to a manageable number.

Technically our front office job opening is not a GM job, but there's plenty of talk that it's a "GM in waiting" or that the actual GM job will come open after the next draft, even if it doesn't have the official title.

Here comes the list, to which I've added some notes of my own within the quotes (in blue).

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TOP 10

Mike Borgonzi, director of football operations, Chiefs: Borgonzi hold Chris Ballard’s former job in Kansas City, and was co-director of player personnel with current GM Brett Veach before John Dorsey was fired in 2017. The rebuilding of the defense there should put another notch on the belt of a deserving candidate.

Nick Caserio, director of player personnel, Patriots: Caserio is among the NFL’s best, and there’s no question he’s ready for a GM poisition. The question is whether he’ll leave New England. His deal is up in May, so he could walk (I wouldn’t totally close the book on him joining his close friend Bill O’Brien in Houston) without needing permission too then. Whether the Patriots would let him leave before then is an open question. Or maybe he does a new deal and stays.

Note: Per various sources, the Patriots attempts to negotiate a contract extension with Caserio have gone nowhere. If McDaniels got the head coaching job, t seems pretty logical that Caserio would be coming along too but nothing is guaranteed..

Ed Dodds, assistant GM, Colts: Dodds was long among Seahawks GM John Schneider’s most trusted confidants in Seattle, and he’s done nothing but validate that standing in three seasons in Indianapolis, earning the promotion to assistant GM. He’s been a rock for Ballard in assembling a number of impressive draft hauls.

Scott Fitterer, co-director of player personnel, Seahawks: Fitterer’s been close to landing a GM position for a few years now—he was runner-up for the Jets job in May. He combines a strong personality with vast knowledge and an impressive network on the college side, and he’s gathered more in-office experience the last few years.

Joe Hortiz, director of player personnel, Ravens: Hortiz and Douglas worked hand-in-hand for years with Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta to give Baltimore perhaps the NFL’s strongest college-scouting infrastructure. Of those four, Hortiz is the only guy who hasn’t gotten his shot as a GM—and those who know him believe he’s richly deserving. The Ravens’ big 2019 season should help.

Note: If Greg Roman were hired as the head coach, this could be a name he mentions when he's asked for input on the front office hire.

Trent Kirchner, co-director of player personnel, Seahawks: I had one GM call Kirchner “the guy who should be a GM and I can’t believe he’s not.” So some are hot on him, others aren’t as much (in part, because Seattle’s had so many candidates over the years), but there’s no question the resume is there. The Seattle exec’s background is on the pro side, but Schneider has him out on the college scouting trail plenty now.

Note: Here's a name that could conceivably be more likely tied to Greg Roman since the two of them were with the Panthers at the same time back in the 90s.

Jeff Ireland, assistant GM, Saints: If you’re paying attention, you’ll see how Ireland has transformed New Orleans over the last four draft cycles, from a Brees/Payton-centric operation into a well-rounded team that can win a ton of different ways (as evidenced by the team’s 6-1 mark when Brees went down this year). His rocky run as Miami GM has hurt, of course, but smart NFL people should be past that by now.

Note: No indication that he's under consideration since all the speculation has gone to Caserio or the Steeler guys, but I'd love it if he were.

Will McClay, assistant director of player personnel, Cowboys: If this list was in ranking order, rather than in alphabetical order, McClay might be No. 1. He’s coached, he’s scouted, he’s worked in analytics and he’s helped put together one of the NFL’s best rosters. I don’t know if he’d leave Dallas, but if I were another team, I would make the effort to find out.

Note: Ditto, and the line about him having worked in analytics is interesting.

George Paton, assistant GM, Vikings: Paton is where DeCosta was and Caserio has been for years—more-than-ready to be a GM, with some questioning whether he’ll actually leave his good situation in Minnesota. I do think he’d be willing to consider jobs elsewhere this offseason, if the right team came along.

Note: He interviewed for the job back in 2013.

Adam Peters, VP of player personnel, 49ers: Peters was GM John Lynch’s top personnel-side hire when he got to San Francisco in 2017, and the 49ers have built one of the NFL’s best rosters in the three years since. Peters is still young, but now has that rebuild, plus being a part of the Peyton Manning Broncos team build, on his ledger.

Note: He's a former Patriots guy who worked under Nick Caserio for a while.

15 RISERS

Ray Agnew, director of pro personnel, Rams; Ryan Cowden, VP of player personnel, Titans; Ian Cunningham, assistant director of player personnel, Eagles; Terry Fontenot, director of pro scouting, Saints; Brad Holmes, director of college scouting, Rams; Brandon Hunt, director of pro scouting, Steelers; Champ Kelly, assistant director of player personnel, Bears; James Liipfert, director of college scouting, Texans; Dan Morgan, director of player personnel, Bills; Monti Ossenfort, director of college scouting, Patriots; Matt Russell, director of player personnel, Broncos; Joe Schoen, assistant GM, Bills; Andy Weidl, VP of player personnel, Eagles; Eliot Wolf, assistant GM, Browns; Dave Ziegler, director of pro scouting, Patriots.

Note: The highlighted names are guys with former Panther connections or guys who have been speculated as candidates for the job.

FOUR SECOND-CHANCERS

Ryan Grigson, Seahawks; Reggie McKenzie, Dolphins; Scott Pioli, free agent; Rick Smith, free agent.

 

[Snake]

I honestly would not be surprised to see Tepper bring in two GMs on top of Hurney. He has the money and he wants to win so honestly why stop at just one. 

[Mr. Scot]

Related: In the video attached to this page, Breer makes the same suggestion Jason LaCanfora recently did regarding the notion that head coaching hires this year might not look quite the same as in prior seasons (also discussed here).

Likewise, if you wanna revisit that talked about our interest in Kevin Colbert and other Steeler execs, that article is here (CBS Sports).

[LinvilleGorge]

22 minutes ago, Snake said:

I honestly would not be surprised to see Tepper bring in two GMs on top of Hurney. He has the money and he wants to win so honestly why stop at just one. 

Too many chiefs and not enough Indians comes to mind. Sounds like a good way to end up with paralysis by analysis and/or a lot of internal strife and power struggles over differences in opinion. 

[Panthera onca]

I’m disappointed, no mention of sportswriters being considered  as GM candidates.

[Cary Kollins]

notice how not one member of panthers staff is listed

[Mr. Scot]

3 minutes ago, Panthera onca said:

I’m disappointed, no mention of sportswriters being considered  as GM candidates.

There's a reason for that 

1 minute ago, Cary Kollins said:

notice how not one member of panthers staff is listed

No, but behind the scenes there is plenty of speculation that several of them will be getting new jobs in the coming year.

[Mage]

9 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Too many chiefs and not enough Indians comes to mind. Sounds like a good way to end up with paralysis by analysis and/or a lot of internal strife and power struggles over differences in opinion. 

Not if it’s structured correctly.  It’s not like major companies don’t have multiple important figureheads 

I get what you are saying but there’s more than one way to construct a successful organization.  Ultimately we just need the best football minds 

[Mr. Scot]

A quick blast from the past...

From 1990 to 1999, the Detroit Lions employed Kevin Colbert as their Director of Pro Scouting. The GM at the time was a guy named Chuck Schmidt, whose record in that position was, shall we say, inconsistent.

In 2000, the Steelers stole Colbert and put him in charge of their football operations.

Chuck Schmidt resigned as Lions GM the following year. He would be replaced in that position by sportscaster Matt Millen.

 

It's kind of important to get these things right.

[LinvilleGorge]

37 minutes ago, Mage said:

Not if it’s structured correctly.  It’s not like major companies don’t have multiple important figureheads 

I get what you are saying but there’s more than one way to construct a successful organization.  Ultimately we just need the best football minds 

Why would the best football minds want to be a part of that? They want to run their own show. Good luck convincing top tier GM candidates to come into a situation where they're going to be splitting duty. 

[Mr. Scot]

7 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Why would the best football minds want to be a part of that? They want to run their own show. Good luck convincing top tier GM candidates to come into a situation where they're going to be splitting duty. 

It's why I believe Marty might not be in on the interviews, or at least not the entire interview, if we're actually talking about a top level candidate.

Supposing a guy like Nick Caserio asks "Is this really just an assistant job?" If it's not, do you really want to answer that question with Marty in the room?

Now if it is, you're probably only talking to somebody like Omar Khan or Samir Suleiman because the top guys aren't going to accept a role like that.

Unless they know it's only temporary, of course 

[PNW_PantherMan]

Is it bad that pretty much anyone on this list seems like an upgrade?

[Mr. Scot]

3 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Is it bad that pretty much anyone on this list seems like an upgrade?

Yeah, kinda. But whadda ya do? 

[NanuqoftheNorth]

31 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Supposing a guy like Nick Caserio asks "Is this really just an assistant job?" If it's not, do you really want to answer that question with Marty in the room?

Now if it is, you're probably only talking to somebody like Omar Khan or Samir Suleiman because the top guys aren't going to accept a role like that.

The top guys aren't even going to interview if they believe they are going to be sharing power with or working for Marty Hurney.

I've gotta believe Dave Tepper knows this.