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Anyone here have experience with statistical hypothesis testing?

1of10Charnatives

By 1of10Charnatives,
in Carolina Panthers

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onmyown Grand Master

onmyown

Posted
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1 hour ago, Tbe said:

More than 8-10. You are looking at age and QBR I guess? At those low numbers one guy with a great or terrible record after 30 will have a major impact on the entire model. You need hundreds of QB’s to make it significant.

Significant is a big word for studies like this come one on man it can still be done and interesting stuff can be found. Tons of studies with viable information weren’t enough to be ‘significant’.

We can still find trends which is something.

Sorry I always hated the word significant when crunching numbers. To me it’s the statistical ‘black and white’ the ‘perfect answer to causation’. But in reality it’s just too complex for that and you can always rip apart the numbers with just one variable or another if you really want to find an explanation or prove an agenda.

Just run the numbers and show the trends and explain possible causations and the reasons behind it all including possible fallacies and let the audience decide what they want to think and where their brain goes with it.

It will still be interesting.

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TheMostInterestingMan Mentor

TheMostInterestingMan

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5 hours ago, 4Corners said:

I do. I am probably a bit rusty since a most of my work does not involve this sort of detail. However, you have proved time and time again to disregard facts and have personally insulted me several times so I will not be offering you any help. Are you one of those dook fans who didn’t go to dook?

cheers! 

I would wager at least half of your posts on any given thread are just personal insults as I just pointed out in another thread before scrolling down and seeing this one... 

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45catfan Grand Master

45catfan

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7 hours ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

Do you remember how big a sample size is needed? I think there’s about 8 to 10 guys you could use as a sample, but I don’t recall what the necessary threshold for statistical significance would be.

Hundreds of data points.  Any less and wouldn't be significant.  I don't have a program to run the data either.  Plus I would be super rusty...last used about 18-years ago in grad school.

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Wes21 Mentor

Wes21

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So since sample size has come up several times, let's discuss how many players are involved in the discussion to collect data points.  I will just start naming names going by division and anyone feel free to add or subtract any of the names.  I will name some iffy guys to spark discussion of criteria.

NFC South - Cam Newton, Mike Vick, Aaron Brooks

NFC North - Daunte Culpepper, Mitch Trubisky, Bobby Douglass, Fran Tarkenton

NFC East - Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin

NFC West - Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray

AFC South - DeShaun Watson, Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, Mark Brunell, David Garrard, Vince Young, Steve McNair

AFC North - Lamar Jackson, Kordell Stewart, Jeff Blake

AFC East - Tyrod Taylor, Doug Flutie, Ryan Tannehill

AFC West - Patrick Mahomes, Alex Smith, The Golden Calf of Bristol, Rich Gannon

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1of10Charnatives Mentor

1of10Charnatives

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1 minute ago, Wes21 said:

So since sample size has come up several times, let's discuss how many players are involved in the discussion to collect data points.  I will just start naming names going by division and anyone feel free to add or subtract any of the names.  I will name some iffy guys to spark discussion of criteria.

NFC South - Cam Newton, Mike Vick, Aaron Brooks

NFC North - Daunte Culpepper, Mitch Trubisky, Bobby Douglass, Fran Tarkenton

NFC East - Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin

NFC West - Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray

AFC South - DeShaun Watson, Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, Mark Brunell, David Garrard, Vince Young, Steve McNair

AFC North - Lamar Jackson, Kordell Stewart, Jeff Blake

AFC East - Tyrod Taylor, Doug Flutie, Ryan Tannehill

AFC West - Patrick Mahomes, Alex Smith, The Golden Calf of Bristol, Rich Gannon

Since we need to look at a completed career with data points after age 30, a lot of these guy are out.

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Wes21 Mentor

Wes21

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2 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

Since we need to look at a completed career with data points after age 30, a lot of these guy are out.

So that narrows it down quite a bit...

NFC South - Mike Vick

NFC North - Daunte Culpepper, Fran Tarkenton

NFC East - Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb,

NFC West - Russell Wilson

AFC South - Mark Brunell, Steve McNair

AFC North - Kordell Stewart, Jeff Blake

AFC East - Doug Flutie

AFC West - Alex Smith, Rich Gannon

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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On 2/5/2020 at 10:31 AM, 1of10Charnatives said:

I’ve got a question I wanna look at using hypothesis testing but although I had some exposure to it for my degree that was many moons ago and tbh my grade in business statistics reflected that it was one of the subjects I had the weakest grasp of any I studied. If anybody’s even decent at that stuff I could use a hand not screwing it up. Post here or pm me.

Oh and before you ask the question relates to running qb’s as they age, so not remotely relevant to the Panthers.

I had it in 2004 or so when I was in school--I now chair autoethnographic and phenomenological dissertations because I do not remember a bit of that stuff--to get through the class, I studied 20 hours per week.  It was the only class I took that semester (worked full time, but normally, I had 6 hours).  I remembered nothing.  If you have the SPSS software (I think you can download an older version for free--at least you could at one time), it may help.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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14 hours ago, 45catfan said:

Hundreds of data points.  Any less and wouldn't be significant.  I don't have a program to run the data either.  Plus I would be super rusty...last used about 18-years ago in grad school.

That is what I was thinking--variables are too numerous.  If it could be reduced to a formula, the draft success rate would be so much higher.   It is almost as pointless as alchemy. 

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Navy_football Mentor

Navy_football

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3 hours ago, Wes21 said:

So that narrows it down quite a bit...

NFC South - Mike Vick

NFC North - Daunte Culpepper, Fran Tarkenton

NFC East - Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb,

NFC West - Russell Wilson

AFC South - Mark Brunell, Steve McNair

AFC North - Kordell Stewart, Jeff Blake

AFC East - Doug Flutie

AFC West - Alex Smith, Rich Gannon

Steve Young

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