Hurney not.....bad???? Wut

[AceMan]

11 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Charles Godfrey is the first name that comes to mind.

Also Jeff King, Brandon LaFell and James Anderson.

And didn't we extend Godfrey and James Anderson....ughhh

[Madwolf]

I mean literally, when you look at the good picks, especially the ones in later rounds, that Hurney and Gettleman drafted and over-saw, the primary story is that we just let them walk away early in their careers. It's almost comical.

So the Panthers have essentially drafted well, for other teams.

[Mr. Scot]

3 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

I wouldnt say they were garbage, they were starters here and for other teams.  Complete garbage would mean no one would want them

Technically, someone "wanted" Sione Fua and Terrell McClain.

Again though, the point was that "four year starter" doesn't equal "special player". For that matter, who starts and who sits is a coaching decision, and one that Ron Rivera wasn't especially good at.

[Soul Rebel]

Quick look at the OPs chart I feel is hard to decide if it's a "quantity over quality" kind of data set and whether it necessarily leads to success. When I see teams like the Jets, Dolphins and Jaguars in the top-10, I question it. 

Marty Hurney's draft selections, for the most part have been worse more than great. We all know the narrative - He hits on the first rounders, but that's about it. For every Greg Hardy there's more Will Grier's and Rashaan Gaulden's. Combined with his desire to overdraft, trade away far too much value to the other team and his closet-passion of converting players from natural positions to other positions and it all equates to a bonehead GM that is in over his head. 

I don't need a chart to tell me this. 

[jfra78]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Technically, someone "wanted" Sione Fua and Terrell McClain.

Again though, the point was that "four year starter" doesn't equal "special player". For that matter, who starts and who sits is a coaching decision, and one that Ron Rivera wasn't especially good at.

People were saying the reason we had the most 4 year starters because we were holding on to garbage players.  At worst those players are fringe starters who have started for other teams.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, jfra78 said:

People were saying the reason we had the most 4 year starters because we were holding on to garbage players.  At worst those players are fringe starters who have started for other teams.

Even accepting the premise, did this make our win loss record over the last several years any better?

As someone else mentioned, the fact that teams like the Jets are ranked above teams like the Patriots tells you everything you need to know about this chart.

[LinvilleGorge]

12 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

People were saying the reason we had the most 4 year starters because we were holding on to garbage players.  At worst those players are fringe starters who have started for other teams.

After we didn't re-sign Amini after his rookie contract, he was signed by the Bears. I think they released him during the first wave of roster cuts. He spent the rest of that season sitting on the couch until we signed him once again the following season. He appeared in 14 games for us that year after literally no one else in the league would have him.

[GoPanthers123]

That’s right and Tepper knows it. 

[Mr. Scot]

13 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

After we didn't re-sign Amini after his rookie contract, he was signed by the Bears. I think they released him during the first wave of roster cuts. He spent the rest of that season sitting on the couch until we signed him once again the following season. He appeared in 14 games for us that year after literally no one else in the league would have him.

And he's not unique.

Pretty much every team in the league has players they keep around that nobody else would think is anyone special. Sometimes it's because they know the system. Sometimes it's because they try hard (that was one of Rivera's big things). Sometimes it's just that the coach or team thinks they're better than they really are for whatever reason. On the flipside, you get really good players who don't last long because of injury, get traded because they don't fit the system or whatever else. That's why stuff like this is always flawed.

It's funny for me to say as a guy who organizes everything by spreadsheet, but attempts to reduce football down to mathematical formulas tend to miss the mark more often than not.

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Tom Brady is a four year starter.

So is Andy Dalton.

Judging draft quality by something like that is pretty much useless.

I am planning on doing a much more in depth look at drafting when I get some time. I have something I am working on.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

I am planning on doing a much more in depth look at drafting when I get some time. I have something I am working on.

And I wish you good luck with it, but I'd caution you not to put too much stock in the idea.

There are way too many aspects of football that you just can't quantify. It's why, when you get right down to it, the only thing that really matters is wins and losses.

[Soul Rebel]

21 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

After we didn't re-sign Amini after his rookie contract, he was signed by the Bears. I think they released him during the first wave of roster cuts. He spent the rest of that season sitting on the couch until we signed him once again the following season. He appeared in 14 games for us that year after literally no one else in the league would have him.

Eerily similar path as Hurney. Perhaps he saw a lil' bit of himself in Amini.

[kungfoodude]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

And I wish you good luck with it, but I'd caution you not to put too much stock in the idea.

There are way too many aspects of football that you just can't quantify. It's why, when you get right down to it, the only thing that really matters is wins and losses.

I think your are overthinking it a bit. As you say, if only wins and losses matter for a GM/coach/etc. (which is obviously untrue, as it is also very nuanced), you can make a measurement of how successful a drafted player is. Yes there will be factors that skew it but overall you will be able to get a general trend. Or simply find out it is a complete crapshoot. 

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Hurney completely poo the bed with the 2019 draft

These numbers include 2000-2008 which had good drafts but also don’t include the last two which have been mediocre and bad. Donte will count as a four year starter eventually but he’s been below average. As with 2009-2012, the past two drafts are Moore and likely Burns and that’s it even though we had two extra 3rd round picks. 2017 was a better draft than the last two combined, which is saying a lot with Hall and Elder in it.

If you do 2009-2019 for Hurney and extrapolating out for Burns, Donte and Moore, he’s picked 9 four year starters in 6 drafts and 41 picks. 22% and 24 picks extrapolated to the article’s 16 drafts. That would drop us down to the bottom. Hurney 1.0 (and Seifert first two drafts) 2000-2008 and Gettleman 2013-2017 numbers are way better than 2009-2019 Hurney 2.0. By these numbers Hurney got worse at the end of his first tour and hasn’t improved. That’s why we are a team coming off 7-9 and 5-11 with not a lot of talent.