Hurney not.....bad???? Wut

[mrcompletely11]

20 minutes ago, stbugs said:

These numbers include 2000-2008 which had good drafts but also don’t include the last two which have been mediocre and bad. Donte will count as a four year starter eventually but he’s been below average. As with 2009-2012, the past two drafts are Moore and likely Burns and that’s it even though we had two extra 3rd round picks. 2017 was a better draft than the last two combined, which is saying a lot with Hall and Elder in it.

If you do 2009-2019 for Hurney and extrapolating out for Burns, Donte and Moore, he’s picked 9 four year starters in 6 drafts and 41 picks. 22% and 24 picks extrapolated to the article’s 16 drafts. That would drop us down to the bottom. Hurney 1.0 (and Seifert first two drafts) 2000-2008 and Gettleman 2013-2017 numbers are way better than 2009-2019 Hurney 2.0. By these numbers Hurney got worse at the end of his first tour and hasn’t improved. That’s why we are a team coming off 7-9 and 5-11 with not a lot of talent.

I dont see Burns being a full time starter in a 4-3

[ForJimmy]

He is great at the 1st round. 2nd is not so good. I would say average after that. His weakness was giving old players stupid contracts, but he seems to have learned from that with Olsen, Davis, and not extending Cam (based on injuries).

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

I think your are overthinking it a bit. As you say, if only wins and losses matter for a GM/coach/etc. (which is obviously untrue, as it is also very nuanced), you can make a measurement of how successful a drafted player is. Yes there will be factors that skew it but overall you will be able to get a general trend. Or simply find out it is a complete crapshoot. 

Depends on what you're evaluating.

Phil Savage drafted arguably the best left tackle in history, Joe Thomas. You could say that's a point in favor of him being a good drafter, but then go back and look at the Cleveland Brown teams that Savage built and tell me if you can justify calling him a good GM.

Hitting on a draft pick or free agent here or there doesn't mean jack sh-t if you can't build a winning roster. Going back and trying to justify that somebody was good at part of the job is like looking at a house that fell down and saying "yeah, but before it fell the kitchen was really nice and the walls were painted in beautiful, vibrant colors so the guy who built it is still a pretty good builder".

[CanadianCat]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Depends on what you're evaluating.

Phil Savage drafted arguably the best left tackle in history, Joe Thomas. You could say that's a point in favor of him being a good drafter, but then go back and look at the Cleveland Brown teams that Savage built and tell me if you can justify calling him a good GM.

Hitting on a draft pick or free agent here or there doesn't mean jack sh-t if you can't build a winning roster. Going back and trying to justify that somebody was good at part of the job is like looking at a house that fell down and saying "yeah, but before it fell the kitchen was really nice and the walls were painted in beautiful, vibrant colors so the guy who built it is still a pretty good builder".

Right but coaching also has a lot more to do with building a 'winning' team than the draft. Look at New England, they never have an overly talented team yet their are a consistent winner. 

[stbugs]

10 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

He is great at the 1st round. 2nd is not so good. I would say average after that. His weakness was giving old players stupid contracts, but he seems to have learned from that with Olsen, Davis, and not extending Cam (based on injuries).

Since 2009, day 2 has been a huge weakness. That’s where Gettleman actually had some success. Bradberry, Short, Moton, Turner, Samuel and while not solid Ealy and Funchess at least contributed while they were here. Worley has been a good starter for Tye Raiders too and that was in 5 drafts. Even in the 4th and 5th he got depth/starters like Klein, Williams, Boston, Bene, Mayo and poor CAP. If not for injury, that 4th/5th group was actually pretty decent for what you’d expect from those rounds in 5 drafts.

Look at the Saints since Thomas. They’ve killed it in day 2 and the 4th. Brees has always been Brees but having those great rounds 2-4 has put them at the top recently. Don’t like them but that’s the reason. They took over the division.

Round 1, especially picking top half should almost always get you a solid starter. Busts happen but round 1. If you do well day 2 you can hide a bad 1st but day 2 is where you either sink a draft to be 1st and nothing or average hitting on one day 2 pick and your 1st or have a great draft with 3 starters.

Last two day 2s we had 6 picks with the extra third for KB and Norwell. The only real starter we have from those 6 picks is Donte and he gets burned a ton. We already know we wasted 3 of the 6 (Grier, trade up and Gaulden). I don’t want to sugar coat it, but getting Donte and so far nothing else is a big reason why we went from 11-5 to 5-11 in two years. There are other reasons like Cam not being healthy but there’s no doubt that our talent level in 2017 was heads and shoulders above today.

[stbugs]

9 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

Right but coaching also has a lot more to do with building a 'winning' team than the draft. Look at New England, they never have an overly talented team yet their are a consistent winner. 

Let’s not say that NE isn’t a talented team. Every year Brady’s won, he’s had a top 10, usually top 5 D. Last year they gave up 34 less points than #2 Buffalo. They were by far the #1 D. A lot of their talent has come outside of the draft like Moss, Welker, Gilmore, Dillon and Revis, but don’t mistake them for not being talented. They’ve always had a lot of talent on OL and D, so maybe it looked like they didn’t have the Julio’s and CMC’s outside of Moss for a few years.

[Jon Snow]

He's the greatest talent evaluator ever!  Don't believe me, ask Tepper.

We are screwed.

[stbugs]

43 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I dont see Burns being a full time starter in a 4-3

I still counted him assuming he’ll be a four year starter in his career. Last year’s draft will be awful if Burns isn’t starting and at least getting Addison production.

[Mr. Scot]

19 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

Right but coaching also has a lot more to do with building a 'winning' team than the draft. Look at New England, they never have an overly talented team yet their are a consistent winner. 

This is actually part of the problem, that people think coaching and team management operate independently of each other.

Coaches and GMs are a unit the same way an offensive line is. They play off of each other, and the chemistry between them is a big deal.

A coach decides what kind of system he wants to run. That determines the type of players he needs. The GM then goes out and tries to find the best examples they can of those types of players.

It's a complicated process, and like any other complicated process, there are a lot of ways it can go wrong on both sides.

Was Ron Rivera a mediocre coach? I think the answer to that is yes, but when Rivera had Dave Gettleman as a GM, the Panthers were winning on a more consistent basis than at any time in their history. In fact, pretty much all the best highlights of Ron Rivera's resumé happened while he was paired with Gettleman. that tells me that for each of their individual flaws, they worked well together.

Rivera and Hurney? Not so much, and in part because the two of them had a lot of the same weaknesses. One of which, sadly, was player evaluation.

What about Hurney paired with a different coach? Better results? Maybe a little, but not to a point that would vindicate Marty.

So what we've got now is Hurney and Rhule. Will they be a better combo?

I get the feeling we're not gonna have sufficient time to truly answer that question.

[Cpt slay a ho]

As far as the draft hurney has always been above average overall, however him being a yes man, he’ll only be successful if the people above him are.
 

Would have like to see him have full reign to actually get an idea of what football philosophy he leans towards 

[kungfoodude]

52 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Depends on what you're evaluating.

Phil Savage drafted arguably the best left tackle in history, Joe Thomas. You could say that's a point in favor of him being a good drafter, but then go back and look at the Cleveland Brown teams that Savage built and tell me if you can justify calling him a good GM.

Hitting on a draft pick or free agent here or there doesn't mean jack sh-t if you can't build a winning roster. Going back and trying to justify that somebody was good at part of the job is like looking at a house that fell down and saying "yeah, but before it fell the kitchen was really nice and the walls were painted in beautiful, vibrant colors so the guy who built it is still a pretty good builder".

Yeah, I am not sure you are really tracking what I am trying to accomplish.

[Mr. Scot]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, I am not sure you are really tracking what I am trying to accomplish.

As I understand it, you're trying to find a mathematical way to evaluate how good someone was at drafting.

I don't really believe that's possible.

[kungfoodude]

16 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

As I understand it, you're trying to find a mathematical way to evaluate how good someone was at drafting.

I don't really believe that's possible.

But you said it wasn't possible because of the W/L records of the teams and that is wasn't the whole picture for evaluating a GM. That really doesn't have a whole lot to do with being good at drafting. That has a lot to do with being successful as a franchise.

[Basbear]

I doubt those numbers, but I dont want to fact check either. Out of 7 draft picks, you want 2 good NFL starters and 1 top backup(3rd DE, swing OT, 3/4th WR, #2 RB etc etc). A tiny bonus is finding a 4 phase ST guy too. 

With comp picks and trades, teams are drafting more than 7 players. I believe the average is 8 or 7.89. So 3.5 out of 8 is what you want at the minimum, Herinay seems to fail here. Hes more of a 1.5/2 most of the time, missing that one hurts you long term too. 

Herniay is a roller coaster and has is a great personal salesman to each owner. Hitting on the first is his greatest gift. Memes and jokes aside Id rank him around 20th best GM in the NFL. Still want him gone and didnt want the comeback either.