Jameis Winston to Saints being finalized

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

Winston is likely to always be an interception machine.  As was mentioned, he fits the “gunslinger” mold.  He is going to wing it downfield or try and force the ball into places that it may not fit.  That is what it is, but putting that into Arians’ system is recipe for an epic number of interceptions.

If you look up guys who fit the gunslinger mold, as a group their TD to interception ratio falls below what most people would consider the benchmark for NFL starting QBs.  I think most would like to see something around 2:1 or better.  Romo was 2.12:1.  Favre was about 1.5:1.  Jim Kelly was about 1.35:1.  Jake was about 1.25:1.  Favre’s number is as good as it is because he had several seasons where he threw 30+ TDs.  They are high risk/high reward QBs.

Winston sits at 1.38:1 for his career.  The right coach may be able to coax that number up some, but given the mold, getting him consistently to the 1.6 or 1.7:1 may be about as good as it gets.  That is not the kiss of death, as we have seen with the other names, but "plan accordingly."

As for Arians, he likes to wing it downfield, too.  He doesn't mind subjecting his QBs to abuse to accomplish that.  Apparently he wants to wing it downfield without interceptions.  If so, maybe he should set his sites on Aaron Rodgers, whose ratio is over 4:1.  Incidentally, Roethlisberger is 1.9:1.

 

I did a pretty detailed comparison of Winston and Brett Favre and their stats were insanely similar. 

[rodeo]

honestly i feel like jameis is going to surprise a lot of people

[Sgt Schultz]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I did a pretty detailed comparison of Winston and Brett Favre and their stats were insanely similar. 

Favre's primary issue was he was prone to throwing interceptions at the worst possible time.  Bone-headed throws went a long way to costing the Packers (2007 loss to the Giants in OT after a pass that looked about like a punt) and the Vikings (on the edge of game-winning FG range late in the game vs. the Saints) berths in the Super Bowl. 

I watched both of those games and could see the buzzards circling.  I think the respective defenses were saying "please, Lord, if you are up there, just entice him to throw one more pass."

[Untouchable]

2 minutes ago, rodeo said:

honestly i feel like jameis is going to surprise a lot of people

He really should be better than he has been in his career. He's the worst good QB in the NFL.

[Madwolf]

My thoughts on the matter:

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

Only guaranteed to make 1.1 million...

That's a hell of a pay cut from what he would have been expecting.

It's why I believe him. I think he really does plan on fully dedicating himself to being Brees' understudy. I don't know if it'll work out, but damn it I commend the guy for giving it a shot.

In the meantime though, New Orleans area grocery stores should consider keeping all their crab legs behind the counter. Just sayin'.

[cookinbrak]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

Only guaranteed to make 1.1 million...

That's a hell of a pay cut from what he would have been expecting.

A lot better than zero....

[Wes21]

Well, since the conversation somehow turned to Brett Favre, I have to re-post the old spoof video of LeBron James "what should I do" commercial...featuring Brett Favre. LOL

 

[hsfolk]

Did Winston ever have much of a run game in Tampa? I always thought not being able to rely on the running game was one reason he was forced to pass the ball too much

[Madwolf]

2 hours ago, Wes21 said:

Well, since the conversation somehow turned to Brett Favre, I have to re-post the old spoof video of LeBron James "what should I do" commercial...featuring Brett Favre. LOL

 

Thank you for finding that. Literally one of my favorite parodies of all time.

[Iron Saint]

5 hours ago, Sgt Schultz said:

Winston is likely to always be an interception machine.  As was mentioned, he fits the “gunslinger” mold.  He is going to wing it downfield or try and force the ball into places that it may not fit.  That is what it is, but putting that into Arians’ system is recipe for an epic number of interceptions.

If you look up guys who fit the gunslinger mold, as a group their TD to interception ratio falls below what most people would consider the benchmark for NFL starting QBs.  I think most would like to see something around 2:1 or better.  Romo was 2.12:1.  Favre was about 1.5:1.  Jim Kelly was about 1.35:1.  Jake was about 1.25:1.  Favre’s number is as good as it is because he had several seasons where he threw 30+ TDs.  They are high risk/high reward QBs.

Winston sits at 1.38:1 for his career.  The right coach may be able to coax that number up some, but given the mold, getting him consistently to the 1.6 or 1.7:1 may be about as good as it gets.  That is not the kiss of death, as we have seen with the other names, but "plan accordingly."

As for Arians, he likes to wing it downfield, too.  He doesn't mind subjecting his QBs to abuse to accomplish that.  Apparently he wants to wing it downfield without interceptions.  If so, maybe he should set his sites on Aaron Rodgers, whose ratio is over 4:1.  Incidentally, Roethlisberger is 1.9:1.

Indeed, and before Arians came along, Winston was right at a 1.52:1 ratio.

Before Brees got to New Orleans and hooked up with Payton, he was at a 1.51:1 ratio in his first 5 seasons. 14 years later and he's a a 2.31:1 ratio.

Not comparing the two in the least, but I think Payton can get to Winston and shave at least some of those INT off. But like for Brees, it will take a lot of effort, preparation, and discipline from Winston to do so. Does he have that in him? Not sure yet, but we'll find out.

1 hour ago, hsfolk said:

Did Winston ever have much of a run game in Tampa? I always thought not being able to rely on the running game was one reason he was forced to pass the ball too much

His rookie season and that's about it. Year-by-year rushing ranks...

• 2015: 8th in attempts, 5th in yards, 15th in TD, 2nd in YPC; leading rusher was Doug Martin (1,402 yards, 6 TD, 4.9 YPC)
• 2016: 7th in attempts, 24th in yards, 29th in TD, 29th in YPC; leading rusher was Jacquizz Rodgers (560 yards, 2 TD, 4.3 YPC)
• 2017: 26th in attempts, 27th in yards, 25th in TD, 27th in YPC; leading rusher was Peyton Barber (423 yards, 3 TD, 3.9 YPC)
• 2018: 22nd in attempts, 29th in yards, 23rd in TD, 31st in YPC; leading rusher was Peyton Barber (871 yards, 5 TD, 3.7 YPC)
• 2019: 14th in attempts, 24th in yards, 15th in TD, 28th in YPC; leading rusher was Ronald Jones (724 yards, 6 TD, 4.2 YPC)

His defense didn't help much either...

• 2015: 26th in points, 10th in yards
• 2016: 15th in points, 23rd in yards
• 2017: 22nd in points, 32nd in yards
• 2018: 31st in points, 27th in yards
• 2019: 29th in points, 15th in yards

Here he could potentially have both at the same time.

[Sgt Schultz]

17 hours ago, Iron Saint said:

Indeed, and before Arians came along, Winston was right at a 1.52:1 ratio.

 

Yeah, the whopping 1.1:1 ratio last year under Arians skillful guidance didn't help.  Thanks for doing that.  I thought about pulling last year out and rerunning the number, but got too lazy.

I'll admit, I am not a fan of Arians' philosophy.  It is not his philosophy as much as his insistence on adhering to it, even when something else is working or it is clearly not working.  And an example of that is putting a QB who has an interception problem in an offense that invites him to throw more interceptions.......and then blaming him for the increase in interceptions.  That sounds like my ex-wife's reasoning.

[Wes21]

10 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

Yeah, the whopping 1.1:1 ratio last year under Arians skillful guidance didn't help.  Thanks for doing that.  I thought about pulling last year out and rerunning the number, but got too lazy.

I'll admit, I am not a fan of Arians' philosophy.  It is not his philosophy as much as his insistence on adhering to it, even when something else is working or it is clearly not working.  And an example of that is putting a QB who has an interception problem in an offense that invites him to throw more interceptions.......and then blaming him for the increase in interceptions.  That sounds like my ex-wife's reasoning.

I can blame Arians offense for having a higher interception rate than other offenses.  But I can't blame Arians for 30 interceptions.  Winston has to own a lot of those.  When I was watching him, it wasn't just a case of "no risk it, no biscuit" offense.  He was making some dumb throws, and on top of that he was missing on throws.  He has to own the dumb throws, but I heard he had a banged up thumb that might have contributed to some of the missed throws.

[Wes21]

Once again youtube comes thru for the win.  This video just shows Winston's interceptions from 2019, and it closely mirrors what I saw live.  Watch how many of these INTs are just bad decisions or poor throws that have nothing to do with how aggressive Arian's offense is.