Kenny Robinson didn’t make the 53....

[Moo Daeng]

2 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

There is literally almost zero difference between a 5th rounder and a UDFA. Might as well just pull names out of a hat after round 4.

There is a Forbes article showing that rds 1-3 each contribute a greater % of starters than UDFA but thats where it ends. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/

[stbugs]

47 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

There is a Forbes article showing that rds 1-3 each contribute a greater % of starters than UDFA but thats where it ends. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/

That doesn’t mean UDFAs are better than rounds 4-7. The UDFA pool of players is huge compared to the 32 guys selected in each round 4-7 so it’s not surprising that they make up a larger portion of starters. You could bundle up rounds 6-7 and say that they are better than round 5, but until you get to probably round 7, the statistics don’t bear out Igo’s post of a negligible difference. Round 5 had 30% more starters than round 6. Round 6 to 7 is only a 15% difference. I’d bet round 7 to round 8 (top 32 UDFAs is where the difference is negligible.

Also, this is just starters so quality backups aren’t part of the stats. I mean at the end of the day draft position correlates to success. There are busts all over the place but your draft slot is an indicator of chances of sticking with the team, being a contributor, being a starter and being a star. UDFAs aren’t better than 4th rounders as a true percentage they are just a gigantic pool of players.

[kass]

57 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Long-term, I wouldn't be shocked if it's accurate. Once you get past the 4th round, long-term roster retention drops below 20% after the first few years. But 81% of 5th round draft picks make the roster their rookie year. 

Neither would I, but I dont want to do the research. And would like to know . His claim, let him prove it. Haha 

[Mister]

i dont get why we drafted a xfl player 

[Madwolf]

Honestly I'm not too upset by this.

Robinson was a boom or bust prospect. He had a lot of potential, but he went in the 5th round because of his attitude.

Turns out he couldn't cut it, in some way on this team, and so he's gone.

I'd much rather take those risks in the 5th round, than in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th as we've traditionally done.

[Moo Daeng]

3 hours ago, stbugs said:

That doesn’t mean UDFAs are better than rounds 4-7. The UDFA pool of players is huge compared to the 32 guys selected in each round 4-7 so it’s not surprising that they make up a larger portion of starters. You could bundle up rounds 6-7 and say that they are better than round 5, but until you get to probably round 7, the statistics don’t bear out Igo’s post of a negligible difference. Round 5 had 30% more starters than round 6. Round 6 to 7 is only a 15% difference. I’d bet round 7 to round 8 (top 32 UDFAs is where the difference is negligible.

Also, this is just starters so quality backups aren’t part of the stats. I mean at the end of the day draft position correlates to success. There are busts all over the place but your draft slot is an indicator of chances of sticking with the team, being a contributor, being a starter and being a star. UDFAs aren’t better than 4th rounders as a true percentage they are just a gigantic pool of players.

You are arguing against a narrative  I didnt make. I just referred to numbers.

In 2018 there were more UDFA on rosters than rounds 4 -7 combined.

https://overthecap.com/2018-nfl-roster-construction/

 

[Moo Daeng]

1 hour ago, Madwolf said:

Honestly I'm not too upset by this.

Robinson was a boom or bust prospect. He had a lot of potential, but he went in the 5th round because of his attitude.

Turns out he couldn't cut it, in some way on this team, and so he's gone.

I'd much rather take those risks in the 5th round, than in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th as we've traditionally done.

Hes on our practice squad. Hes not gone currently 

[stbugs]

55 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

You are arguing against a narrative  I didnt make. I just referred to numbers.

In 2018 there were more UDFA on rosters than rounds 4 -7 combined.

https://overthecap.com/2018-nfl-roster-construction/

 

Wasn’t arguing with you. Just throwing out some points that just because that’s true doesn’t means UDFAs are better in average than rounds 4-7 which again you seem to be alluding to that conclusion.

According to that link there’s more UDFAs than 1st and 2nd rounders combined too. More UDFAs than 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders combined. There are just a ton more UDFAs every year than drafted that fill out the roster on really cheap deals. The NFL draft was 17 to 30 rounds for many years until it dropped to 12 in 1977 and then 8 and 7 in the 90s. If you’ve got a link that shows percentages based on total player pools then that would be interesting if it showed a higher percent of hits. All these stats don’t take into account pure volume of players available.

[stbugs]

3 hours ago, Mister said:

i dont get why we drafted a xfl player 

We signed a bunch of AAF players the year before instead of UDFAs so it’s not surprising we went after a couple XFL guys.

[Prowler2k18]

8 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I was disappointed that he was cut, but at the same time I want us to keep the best football players regardless of draft position. If the UDFA outplays the 5th rounder, keep the UDFA.

Based on the numbers we have in the defensive secondary, he was probably the odd man. With the versatility of guys like Stantley-Oliver, Hartsfield and the newly acquired Rasul Douglas (who some view as better suited at safety), it was likely a no-brainer. Glad they found room for him on the PS to give him time to develop his raw skills.

[Basbear]

New staff comes with huge turnover and that years fifth should be included. Especially if that team is lacking talent like the panthers. Sure a UDFA beating him out is "good", still it shows lack of evaluation. Plus lets not act this is a comp 5th, it was the early in the round.