Athletic Mock

[raleigh-panther]

Lance at 8

LT Cosmi from Texas in second 

http://Two-round 2021 NFL mock draft: Four QBs early, DeVonta Smith reunites with Tua

On Tuesday, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler released his NFL Mock Draft 2.0. With the eighth pick in the draft, he has the Carolina Panthers drafting quarterback Trey Lance from North Dakota State.

To analyze the pick, The Athletic’s National College Football Insider Bruce Feldman and Panthers beat reporter Joe Person teamed up to take a look at Lance’s past with North Dakota State and a potential future in Carolina and why Lance could be just what the Panthers need.

What was Lance to North Dakota State?

No one in 2019 had a more impressive stat line than Trey Lance did in his first season of college competition as a Division I starting QB. The 6-foot-3, 225-pounder from Marshall, Minn., had a 28-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and also ran for 1,100 yards and 14 more touchdowns leading North Dakota State to a 16-0 record and an FCS national title. In addition, the redshirt freshman led the FCS in passing efficiency and set school single-season records for passing efficiency (180.6) and total offense yards (3,886). Pretty heady stuff for a guy in whom Big Ten recruiters had only a passing interest as a safety or linebacker.

Lance is an intriguing talent. He’s big, has a quick release and is a very good runner. He comes from a proven pro-style system that has produced Carson Wentz and Easton Stick. Lance won’t need a crash course in learning how to operate from under center.

“We give our quarterback a lot of latitude at the line of scrimmage,” North Dakota State QBs coach Randy Hedberg, a former NFL quarterback, told me last spring. “They set protections. Our guys go from run to pass or pass to run, so there’s a lot of processing. We’re a huddle team, and our guys are in the huddle with 10 other guys. We’re not looking to the sideline to read a card or whatever it is. I do think our system really prepares young men for the next level.”

The Bison loved Lance’s competitiveness, especially with how physical he played on both sides of the ball. Those traits were on display in the one game Lance and the Bison got to play in 2020, against Central Arkansas. He showed off his wheels running the ball, but he looked like he was pressing some in the passing game. He finished 15-of-30 passing for 149 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and he rushed 15 times for 143 yards and two touchdowns.

The toughest part of the evaluation for NFL scouts will be the fact that Lance has really played only one full season — albeit a long one. There is a lot to like about Lance physically and mentally, but the sample size is small, and the 2021 draft pool has a really strong group of quarterbacks.

And if the Panthers land him — and still have Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator — expect Brady to take advantage of those wheels as he often did on third downs and in the red zone when he handled the calls for LSU in 2019. Joe Burrow’s legs became a major factor in the Tigers’ offense during his Heisman- and national championship-winning season, picking up 17 rushing first downs on his 34 carries. — Bruce Feldman

 

What could Lance be to the Panthers?

While the Panthers have plenty of needs on both sides of the ball, it seems almost like a foregone conclusion that Matt Rhule and Carolina’s new general manager will take a quarterback at No. 8. And once you get past the big three of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson, Lance is the most intriguing option because of his dual-threat ability and high ceiling.

NFL scouts love Lance’s size (6-3, 225) and skill set, and his quick release would play well in Joe Brady’s system (provided Brady doesn’t get a head-coaching gig). And while concerns about Lance’s small sample size and his FCS background are legitimate, they’re minimized somewhat by the fact that the Panthers can bring Lance along slowly behind Teddy Bridgewater, whose $23 million cap number makes it almost a certainty that Bridgewater will remain in Charlotte one more season.

The Panthers didn’t use many zone reads or other quarterback runs this season with Bridgewater, mainly because that has never been his strong suit. (Bridgewater’s 53 rushes were a career-high but still about half of Cam Newton’s average rushing attempts per season.) But you can bet Brady would design a run package for Lance, as well as mixing in RPOs with Christian McCaffrey, who missed 13 games because of injury in 2020.

Rhule and his staff were selected this week to coach in the Senior Bowl, where they’ll get a closer look at six quarterbacks in Mobile — Notre Dame’s Ian Book, Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond, Texas’ Sam Ehlinger, Florida’s Kyle Trask, Wake Forest/Georgia’s Jamie Newman and Arkansas’ Feleipe Franks. The Panthers won’t get that kind of weeklong experience with Lance, but they’ll do extensive work on the North Dakota State star and all of the top quarterbacks.

Bridgewater was always seen as someone who could serve as a bridge from the Cam era to the Panthers’ next franchise quarterback. Rhule brought in free-agent quarterback Dwayne Haskins for a visit this week. The former first-round pick from Ohio State left Charlotte without a contract, although the Panthers could look to sign Haskins in the future, sources said.

But that won’t preclude them from taking a quarterback high in the draft, and Lance could well be the pick. — Joseph Person

 

 

[top dawg]

[DaveThePanther2008]

The attraction is valid.  The concerns are valid too.  This is where the Pro day and meetings will decide his fate with us.  I think he'll be available at 8 but if we don't do our homework on this guy we could be getting another bad egg.

I am glad we have the Senior Bowl to evaluate other QBs.  It might be better to gamble on a lower round QB that to try and strike it rich with a one year wonder.

One QB I could see us going after in the late rounds maybe even UDFA (due to an ACL tear in 2020) is Mike Penix Jr. from Indiana.   I saw him in a couple of games this year including against OSU and he looked dynamic.  

Below is a pretty good article on his prospect.   The writer addresses both good and bad points about him. One was his completion rate but the games I saw his receivers (outside Ty Fryfogie) consistently dropped perfectly thrown balls. 

2021 NFL Draft Player Profile – Michael Penix Jr. | Important Nonsense

[CashNewton22]

41 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

The attraction is valid.  The concerns are valid too.  This is where the Pro day and meetings will decide his fate with us.  I think he'll be available at 8 but if we don't do our homework on this guy we could be getting another bad egg.

I am glad we have the Senior Bowl to evaluate other QBs.  It might be better to gamble on a lower round QB that to try and strike it rich with a one year wonder.

One QB I could see us going after in the late rounds maybe even UDFA (due to an ACL tear in 2020) is Mike Penix Jr. from Indiana.   I saw him in a couple of games this year including against OSU and he looked dynamic.  

Below is a pretty good article on his prospect.   The writer addresses both good and bad points about him. One was his completion rate but the games I saw his receivers (outside Ty Fryfogie) consistently dropped perfectly thrown balls. 

2021 NFL Draft Player Profile – Michael Penix Jr. | Important Nonsense

If you’re drafting in the top 10 that usually means there’s instability at the most important position on the field....the QB. You absolutely try and strike gold if you think Lance (my preference actually between him Wilson and Fields) or whomever they decide on. Shoot trading up for the right QB is on the table as well.

 

If all 4 QB’s are gone by the time we pick/we’re unable to trade up for our guy/we don’t fall in love with a Mac Jones then I’m in agreement let’s just fortify other areas of weakness and punch a lottery ticket on an athletic/overlooked QB like Penix later (5th round-UDFA).

[DaveThePanther2008]

20 minutes ago, CashNewton22 said:

If you’re drafting in the top 10 that usually means there’s instability at the most important position on the field....the QB. You absolutely try and strike gold if you think Lance (my preference actually between him Wilson and Fields) or whomever they decide on. Shoot trading up for the right QB is on the table as well.

 

If all 4 QB’s are gone by the time we pick/we’re unable to trade up for our guy/we don’t fall in love with a Mac Jones then I’m in agreement let’s just fortify other areas of weakness and punch a lottery ticket on an athletic/overlooked QB like Penix later (5th round-UDFA).

I wish there was more info on Lance.  Wilson and Fields will be gone by our pick.  

I know QB is probably our most glaring need but reaching for a QB is just as bad as holding onto the TB experience.   The Senior Bowl will give Rhule an opportunity to see up close and personal 1/2 of the Senior QBs coming out.   I definitely believe that they may pass on a QB in round 1 and go O-line. 

[CashNewton22]

37 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

I wish there was more info on Lance.  Wilson and Fields will be gone by our pick.  

I know QB is probably our most glaring need but reaching for a QB is just as bad as holding onto the TB experience.   The Senior Bowl will give Rhule an opportunity to see up close and personal 1/2 of the Senior QBs coming out.   I definitely believe that they may pass on a QB in round 1 and go O-line. 

If one of the top 4 qbs are there I hope not but honestly who knows at this point. 

[DaveThePanther2008]

21 minutes ago, CashNewton22 said:

If one of the top 4 qbs are there I hope not but honestly who knows at this point. 

What I definitely can see is for us to trade down and get an extra pick or two.

[pantherj]

I think the pick is Lance if we stay put at 8th AND he proves himself at the combine and Senior Bowl. If the Panthers don't like what they see, then I think we will look to trade down if possible.

If you look at Trey's legs and speed you can see he's going to break tackles when he scrambles, you can roll him out of bootlegs, and have designed runs for him as well. He's not going to go down easily even with bigger guys hitting him in the pocket, and he will truck some DBs. Lance gives us a redzone threat just in his ability to take off and burst into the endzone with power. Teams will suffer if the they go man-to-man on us because of our WRs being able to get separation, and if you add in Lance scrambling with the DBs having their backs turned to him, that is a major problem for opposing defenses.

Realize that Lance is lean muscle, see his biceps, and he's 6-4, 226 pounds. Lance is a badass athlete, and we have not had a badass since Cam was healthy at the QB position. He can uncork a 60 yard bomb on target like it's nothing.

The problem? Well Trey Lance completed 13.5 completions per game. 208 total completions in college. Yikes. We know next to nothing about Lance. Next to nothing.

[pantherj]

If we don't like what we see with Lance, then he could drop completely out of the 1st round altogether. He is a huge question mark, and scouts could sour on him quickly if he doesn't come out and wow people. He's an extremely risky pick, and I don't think anyone would be shocked if he fell to the second or third round if he doesn't do something big the next time we see him.

[OldhamA]

1 hour ago, pantherj said:

I think the pick is Lance if we stay put at 8th AND he proves himself at the combine and Senior Bowl. If the Panthers don't like what they see, then I think we will look to trade down if possible.

If you look at Trey's legs and speed you can see he's going to break tackles when he scrambles, you can roll him out of bootlegs, and have designed runs for him as well. He's not going to go down easily even with bigger guys hitting him in the pocket, and he will truck some DBs. Lance gives us a redzone threat just in his ability to take off and burst into the endzone with power. Teams will suffer if the they go man-to-man on us because of our WRs being able to get separation, and if you add in Lance scrambling with the DBs having their backs turned to him, that is a major problem for opposing defenses.

Realize that Lance is lean muscle, see his biceps, and he's 6-4, 226 pounds. Lance is a badass athlete, and we have not had a badass since Cam was healthy at the QB position. He can uncork a 60 yard bomb on target like it's nothing.

The problem? Well Trey Lance completed 13.5 completions per game. 208 total completions in college. Yikes. We know next to nothing about Lance. Next to nothing.

He's not eligible for the Senior Bowl. There's talk that the Combine will be scrapped this year too.

[Zod]

What a huge risk with the 8th pick. High reward, but such a high risk. Better chance than not that he doesn't make it in the NFL. But if he does, could be a superstar. Does Tepper strike you as a gambler on a situation with that many variables?

[jfra78]

Lance is too much of a risk to me at 8, at 20 ok.  This guy has bust written all over him.

[pantherj]

22 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

He's not eligible for the Senior Bowl. There's talk that the Combine will be scrapped this year too.

If that's the case then I don't see us or anyone taking him in the top 10 imo.

[OldhamA]

All of these mock drafters backing themselves into a corner is why mock drafts aren't worth the paper they're written on.