Interesting change in draft philosophy

[kungfoodude]

Just now, thefuzz said:

Ron and Marty much preferred very top heavy teams...didn't think the bottom of the roster could help you win, or earn starting snaps very often...they were, in other words, just overloooked.

Means we kept guys here, on the roster, longer than most teams would have, or should have.

Yep, hence why we got rocked so badly when injuries set in. Smart teams try to build depth because it is assumed that injuries will happen. 

[Waldo]

9 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

 

Even with Cam we have always been inconstant, they have always pretty much always in the playoffs.

If the difference between us and them is Wilson, does that mean Wilson was that much better than Cam?

That would be the difference in coaching and we also got Hurney back which put us in a lower tier. When Cam was healthy and DG was here, we were similar teams. 

[AU-panther]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

Let's not leave out this part...

"I believe in drafting/acquiring a quarterback every year."

I found that interesting also.  Maybe that is more of a philosophical idea instead of something that happens in practicality.

There is some thought in the analytical community that drafting QBs often is a good use of draft picks, since the reward is so high.  Think about what QBs get on the trade market, think about how much teams spend on back up QBs. 

You sign a backup vet QB for $4m a year or draft a backup QB for $600k a year, maybe the backup plays a few times, looks decent and you trade him down the road for basically the same pick you used to draft him.

Either way I would really be shocked if we truly drafted/acquired one every year?  I guess we need to go back and look at what the Seahawks actually did.

 

 

[thefuzz]

Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

Going back to Fitt's opinion on draft pick values and that 16-18 cutoff for elite talent...

Does that make it more likely for us to move up in the 1st or trade 1sts for Watson? He said they aren't looking for quick fixes but are looking for a quick turnaround. I presume that means he doesn't anticipate a great chance at those future 1sts meeting that 16-18 cutoff.

I think that we will make a push for Watson first and foremost.  If that doesn't happen, and I'm betting against it, they will start making calls to see what it will take to move up to 3 or 4, and weigh that against what it would cost to get Stafford in the building.

I also think that there is a GOOD chance of a trade down, and a Jones selection.

[Mr. Scot]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Going back to Fitt's opinion on draft pick values and that 16-18 cutoff for elite talent...

Does that make it more likely for us to move up in the 1st or trade 1sts for Watson? He said they aren't looking for quick fixes but are looking for a quick turnaround. I presume that means he doesn't anticipate a great chance at those future 1sts meeting that 16-18 cutoff.

Gut feeling: I think he's given at least some preliminary thought to trading up.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Mr. Scot

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

I found that interesting also.  Maybe that is more of a philosophical idea instead of something that happens in practicality.

There is some thought in the analytical community that drafting QBs often is a good use of draft picks, since the reward is so high.  Think about what QBs get on the trade market, think about how much teams spend on back up QBs. 

You sign a backup vet QB for $4m a year or draft a backup QB for $600k a year, maybe the backup plays a few times, looks decent and you trade him down the road for basically the same pick you used to draft him.

Either way I would really be shocked if we truly drafted/acquired one every year?  I guess we need to go back and look at what the Seahawks actually did.

 

 

Looks like they have only drafted 6 since the 2001 draft.

[hepcat]

There are NFL caliber players in every round. The variables for success are so wide ranging that sometimes a guy might have a wonderful career in one situation and be a bust somewhere else. Say Dwayne Haskins was drafted by the Steelers originally and got to spend a couple seasons on the bench on a well coached team. I have a feeling he doesn’t get cut in under 2 seasons.

[AU-panther]

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Going back to Fitt's opinion on draft pick values and that 16-18 cutoff for elite talent...

Does that make it more likely for us to move up in the 1st or trade 1sts for Watson? He said they aren't looking for quick fixes but are looking for a quick turnaround. I presume that means he doesn't anticipate a great chance at those future 1sts meeting that 16-18 cutoff.

Good point.  Its pretty clear that he would view this years 1st a lot higher than future 1st.  Very easy to believe we could be a middle of the road or better team next year.

This might be our best chance to really move up and take advantage of the really high pick we have this year.  A lot of years its not practical to move up to pick 2 or 3 even if you want.  Having pick 8 gives us that chance.

All of this is really going to be decided by how they grade Wilson, Fields, and Lance.  If you like Wilson a lot, more than the other two guys, you trade up.  If you think they are close you stay put and keep your picks, or you just trade up to 5.  As fan we tend to get this opinion that one of the is a lot better than the others, I would think Wilson would be that for most people.  In reality there is a chance they might fall in love with Lance.  You have to remember the Seahawks fell in love with Wilson.

Speaking of Wilson, the Seahawks do seem to do a good job of understand the draft as a whole and what other teams do.  We always seemed in a hurry to get "our guy".  I'm hoping that is different now.

 

 

[Rocky Davis]

1 hour ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

It’s hard to tier so many players but that’s the way I’ve always viewed it. You have you’re elites (1-3), top tier (4-15), high end (16-40) then break it down by position and need from there. Certain positions go in areas like IOL in rounds 2-3. It’s important to be able to know these hot spots and when to move around or take someone. 
 

Hurney always trusted the feeling in his gut. I think he just ate a bad burrito.

He ate meatballs that weren't served by Rhule's wife.

[Waldo]

21 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I mean, I will take their version of mediocre over ours. In fairness to them, there are no perfect rosters in the NFL. Even the Packers and Chiefs have some obvious warts on the roster. 

I don't disagree that having an elite QB definitely propels them into contending status but they are far from a talentless roster. 

I don't know that what they have planned is Seattle 2.0. I think the biggest things we will do that they do is have the same kind of organizational feel, it sounds like. Collaborative and a little more free thinking that perhaps the average NFL front office. I don't think that is a bad thing.

We were very similar before Cam got hurt and Hurney came back. KC has become dominate, emulate that quality over a team that is living off of what they did in 2012. It's a little harsh but fair considering they have stagnated visibly to a degree. 

I just didn't like his take on the top tier and everything else is close. Every draft has different depths and tiers. Build a value chart and stick to it while targeting the strengths of that draft. The Seahawks drafting hasn't been the same since Drunko left, quality wise. They are not a talentless roster but they are also not a great roster either, only if you pretend it's 2012 - 2014. 

I like the organizational setup for sure, I'm just not sure about some of these philosophies that have led to the Seahawks stagnation. If I had to guess, if the Seahawks realized they had a talent evaluation problem and solved it, they would be a huge problem for other teams going forward. I hope they never do lol.

[kungfoodude]

Just now, hepcat said:

There are NFL caliber players in every round. The variables for success are so wide ranging that sometimes a guy might have a wonderful career in one situation and be a bust somewhere else. Say Dwayne Haskins was drafted by the Steelers originally and got to spend a couple seasons on the bench on a well coached team. I have a feeling he doesn’t get cut in under 2 seasons.

They are but the most successful NFL players are all pretty self-driven. I am not saying that some don't need people or events to help them find that place in themselves where they want to be great but truly great players would be great, regardless of where they went. It's what is inside those individuals that makes them watch tape like an insane person(Luke Kuechly) or practice for hours after a game is over or just be better than the people you compete with and against. 

If you don't have that in you, it's hard to make you successful, no matter where you are in the NFL. That's why you hear Rhule talk about wanting guys that love football and can play through injuries. Not as if playing injured is an expectation, but he wants people who love the game so much that the staff is stopping them from playing injured, not vice versa. 

That's why Fitterer was talking about getting to personally know the players and finding out who they are. Elite athletes litter every single draft class. But the guys that also have elite ambition and elite mindsets, those are the guys that will make your team successful. 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Waldo said:

We were very similar before Cam got hurt and Hurney came back. KC has become dominate, emulate that quality over a team that is living off of what they did in 2012. It's a little harsh but fair considering they have stagnated visibly to a degree. 

I just didn't like his take on the top tier and everything else is close. Every draft has different depths and tiers. Build a value chart and stick to it while targeting the strengths of that draft. The Seahawks drafting hasn't been the same since Drunko left, quality wise. They are not a talentless roster but they are also not a great roster either, only if you pretend it's 2012 - 2014. 

I like the organizational setup for sure, I'm just not sure about some of these philosophies that have led to the Seahawks stagnation. If I had to guess, if the Seahawks realized they had a talent evaluation problem and solved it, they would be a huge problem for other teams going forward. I hope they never do lol.

He is ultimately largely right about their being an elite tier as far as each draft. That does exist in most drafts, hence the dramatic statistical differences in career success for the first round guys versus other rounds. The numbers do actually back that up.

And, yeah, everything in the NFL is close once you get past the most elite talent on the field. That is where you have to make sure you are doing what is necessary to identify elite attributes in some of those lower tier guys that might have more warts than a shiny, surefire top 10 talent. 

I will give him the benefit of the doubt, at the moment. I want to see what moves he makes this offseason and in the draft before I get too concerned.  

[hepcat]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

They are but the most successful NFL players are all pretty self-driven. I am not saying that some don't need people or events to help them find that place in themselves where they want to be great but truly great players would be great, regardless of where they went. It's what is inside those individuals that makes them watch tape like an insane person(Luke Kuechly) or practice for hours after a game is over or just be better than the people you compete with and against. 

If you don't have that in you, it's hard to make you successful, no matter where you are in the NFL. That's why you hear Rhule talk about wanting guys that love football and can play through injuries. Not as if playing injured is an expectation, but he wants people who love the game so much that the staff is stopping them from playing injured, not vice versa. 

That's why Fitterer was talking about getting to personally know the players and finding out who they are. Elite athletes litter every single draft class. But the guys that also have elite ambition and elite mindsets, those are the guys that will make your team successful. 

I agree with most of what you're saying. The trick is really finding guys that mesh well with the personality of the coaches and other players, along with like you said, the players having enough of their own inner drive to be successful. That "fire in your gut". 

One of the reasons I think Andy Reid is a fantastic coach is, he always seems to get the best out his players. Guys like Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt are massive talents with questionable character that could have destroyed a different team. Marvin Lewis used to be the guy that "rehabilitated" troubled players. It'll be interesting to see how Rhule and Fitterer build the team, because we know Rhule can squeeze extra out of his players, now the onus is on them to find guys to fit the system.

I honestly think they're a good QB from being a playoff team as it stands, so I hope they draft someone or go all in for Watson. Stafford would be a disaster and keeping Bridgewater without any competition would cause a revolt from the fanbase, so I think everyone is on the same page lol

[LinvilleGorge]

23 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

I also think that there is a GOOD chance of a trade down, and a Jones selection.

I think Jones is likely going to basically be a less athletic version of Teddy at the NFL level. The physical limitations will show up when his backups aren't better than his opponents' starters.