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Analytics that will shape Draft Strategy or my name isn't MHS831


MHS831
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Excellent post! I totally agree with all the logic you have presented. It's a team game and it takes a complete team to win. Rhule even said in his next to last presser that their inability to make stops on 3rd down last season was their biggest problem and he's correct. I will not be upset at all if our first pick is a shutdown CB, especially in a trade back scenario where we gain more draft capital. Hopefully for 2022 as well as what we'd get in 2021. I've been waiting for a calculated, intelligent, and analytical organization for a while now. That's why I was excited about getting Rhule and now bringing the new GM to really get this process started. I'm expecting an even better draft this season than we had last season as I expect more picks coming our way and still getting quality players that serve a purpose. 

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4 minutes ago, BrianS said:

That's a lot of words.  I can shortcut that a bit.

image.png.6bdc6fe0ea7cef25f9ae6750ea32ac9b.png

We score TD's 50% of the time we are in the red zone.  If that doesn't scream OFFENSIVE LINE I don't know what does.

Not effectively.  Words are your friends.  Does this stat tell you how often we were in the red zone compared to other teams?  Teams need opportunities to score before you measure their success at scoring.  If the Panthers scored 99% of the time in the red zone and another team scored 59% of times in the red zone but scored more points, do you think red zone scoring was an issue?  Man, I am a research professor.  I know the difference between the central problem and side effects.  Scoring is shiny and what everyone pays attention to-opportunities to score are more important, so no, it does not scream OL. It could scream QB, WR, TE.  Dont know how you arrived at that conclusion, frankly.

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13 minutes ago, musicman said:

if Sewell or Slater or Pitts are gone, I would take a CB or drop a few spots and get a CB. I would not take a QB but what do I know. 

I feel the same way--you have to look at the panaramic picture and not just the need/player available.  If I suggest a CB, I am suggesting trading back and adding a second or third rounder to assure us the T and WR spots are addressed.

I really like Pitts the player--he might be my favorite player in this draft.  But taking him at 8 would be a coo, however, it does not provide extra picks and now we have needs at LT, CB, and WR and 2 day 2 picks to do it.  It means we can't use the third rounder to move up if needed.  So Pitts is a luxury, if you ask me.

I use him as trade bait to get a good deal and I stick to the #1 CB/LT/WR script.  If we trade back and get a second and use the third to trade up--we could get 3 impact players in the first 45 picks.

There are hundreds of ways to look at this, and I try to keep an open mind.  It NEVER plays out the way I think it will and I spend draft day going through a range of emotions from anger, to apathy to "oh, I see what they are doing."

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8 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

CB is probably a trade down selection, IMO. I don't see any of them going in the top 8. I suspect the run on them will be from 10-25 in the draft.

It sure is, but not far.  I am really loving Surtain, Farley, and Horn.  Add a second rounder, take the OL and WR and the rest is gravy.

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MHS831, if that is your real name... great post! I love Newsome, Samuel Jr, and Horne as mid/late 1st round CBs in this draft and I think we can get a solid LT in the 2nd (assuming Sewell isn’t there at 8). Trading back wouldn’t be the worst thing at all. I’m hoping Lance falls to 8 and we trade with NE or WFT for a nice little haul (assuming Sewell and Fields aren’t there at 8). 

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3 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

 we trade with NE or WFT for a nice little haul 

 

We have 16 players with first round grades.  Trading with NE (15) guarantees us one of them.  

Trading with WFT (19), we could get lucky and still get one.  If only 2 of the 5 QBs in draft are on list, and 5 get taken there is a decent chance one of our guys could fall to 19.  But because of the risk involved, I'd want a hell of a lot from the WFT in that trade.

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2 minutes ago, Captain Morgan said:

 

We have 16 players with first round grades.  Trading with NE (15) guarantees us one of them.  

Trading with WFT (19), we could get lucky and still get one.  If only 2 of the 5 QBs in draft are on list, and 5 get taken there is a decent chance one of our guys could fall to 19.  But because of the risk involved, I'd want a hell of a lot from the WFT in that trade.

2022 1st plus some 

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