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Trade Value Gains and Losses

MHS831

By MHS831,
in Carolina Panthers

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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Cat Scratch Reader (@CatScratchReadr) | Twitter'

 

So how did we do, in terms of value based on the various NFL trade value charts.  Remember, Jimmy Johnson created this process, and he endorsed trading down.  Rhule spent a day with him fishing for ideas as much as anything else:

image.png.c72b726991213843b767d1c5fc39c06e.png

JOHNSON:  the Johnson model shows a Panther advantage of 7.5% by combining all 5 picks.

STUART:  The Panther advantage for all five picks was 136.3%. 

OTC:  Incredibly, the Panthers increased their pick capital value by 220% if you add all percentage advantages and subtract the disadvantages.

WHITE:  The picks total an increase in draft capital of 31.6%

Please see these sites/charts for clarity.

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45catfan Grand Master

45catfan

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14 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

That trade up for Christensen shows how desperate we were to ensure we got him.

Yep, last of the LTs that had a chance of starting this year.  Every one of them after him are projects.  Literally let out an audible sigh of relief when his name was called.  It was like a gut punch as the LTs kept coming off the board as we traded back.   I would have been livid had we not come away with a starting LT out of this draft.  Granted Christensen isn't a lock to start, but at least he's going to compete for it.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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28 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

That trade up for Christensen shows how desperate we were to ensure we got him.

And I am sure that is why trading back is always better value-wise than moving up.  It is like sitting at a dance--you can give it your all and go after the hot babe, or you can sit there and let the alcohol set in make all the babes look hot and you have your pick of the litter.  (This is only a joke--I joke like this with my wife to see if she still has a left hook. Since she does, I come here for my sexist, inappropriate humor.  It is less painful.)

  Knowing what you want and your needs and having a plan allows you to let the draft come to you. 

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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People are saying, "They could make some noise in the south, except for Tampa Bay."  I say screw that. Of course Brady will pick you apart with a 20-yard cushion.  Now we have some defense--some rush.  Some offense.  Bring it.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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11 hours ago, OldhamA said:

That trade up for Christensen shows how desperate we were to ensure we got him.

I think (theory here--no evidence) that we were dropping to get him.  I think we wanted Horn from his pro day and we spotted Shi Smith there-so we were going to target Shi as our slot WR.  So they dropped a bit, and the T situation did not change much.  They dropped again, and Marshall was still there--they had to take him.  But then a few Tackles like Jalen Mayfield  was taken at 68, and they knew a team in front of them (Denver)  was in the market. We moved up 3 spots to leapfrog  Denver and Detroit (and we knew Detroit had Sewell).  Ironically, the next tackle chosen was 23 picks later at the 30th pick of the 3rd round (Spencer Brown, a RT) --, and then only projects Hudson and Smith went in the 4th.

It just seemed to me that they move up was insurance to keep Denver off Christensen, even though they needed only a RT.  I think if Mayfield had been on the board, Fitterer knew he would be chosen over Christensen by the Broncos, but they did not want to take chances after seeing Christensen's pro day and after seeing Mayfield go off the board at 68. 

I think the fact that Marshall dropped so far hindered our LT selection and caused the trade up.  Marshall was an early second rounder and to see a need sitting there at nearly an entire round later was too much to ask.

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