Reasonable expectations for rookie performance

[DaveThePanther2008]

18 hours ago, rayzor said:

I said right after the draft that we will have 7-8 either starting or playing a major role in what we do and I'm sticking by that.

 

Including to excluding Moore?

[rayzor]

1 minute ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

Including to excluding Moore?

i think moore will work his way into the rotation and will start a few games this year. he'll grow into a very reliable part of the OL. 

ceiling...ryan kalil 2.0

floor...geoff hangartner 2.0

[Khyber53]

1 hour ago, BlitzMonster said:

This year there's more depth and more competition for playing time.   That's always a plus.  

The missing word there is "quality" depth. We really don't know about these guys and soooo many of our free agent pick ups have quite a few injury bugs that could be issues.

Right now, our biggest hope for a star in the making really relies on Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. A guy the NY Jets might possibly have ruined. This season will depend on his resurgence to get onto the winning side of records. If not, then it is roll the dice at QB again. 

On defense, well, it's not about star power (we really have no stars that are known widely beyond our fanbase -- Brian Burns is wowed over here, but who?'ed over elsewhere), but about actually being able to slow down an opponent. There were games we weren't even a speed bump to opponents because we played so timidly. We really only had one outstanding defensive game and that was against the Lions... just like every other team that played them.

Gosh, I have hope for this team, but right now we have a bunch of no-name starters and walking wounded vets. Maybe the coach can make something great of this, but at times I'm expecting this training camp to be like the training sequence of The Dirty Dozen. Maybe they will build something out of these misfits and make it happen. Hope so, would be a great story for the ages.

[BlitzMonster]

1 hour ago, Khyber53 said:

On defense, well, it's not about star power (we really have no stars that are known widely beyond our fanbase -- Brian Burns is wowed over here, but who?'ed over elsewhere), but about actually being able to slow down an opponent.

Maybe not star power but there's definitely been an increase of talent on the defensive side of the ball in the last couple of years:

(As debatable as the PFF rankings are) PFF gives above average grades to four of our defensive starters:

• DE Brian Burns
• DE Haason Reddick
• LB Denzel Perryman
• CB Donte Jackson 

DL Derrick Brown made the 2020 PFWA All-Rookie Team 

S Jeremy Chinn made the 2020 PFWA All-Rookie Team 

everybody who sees rookie CB Jaycee Horn reports he's big & crazy athletic, the "real deal" 

A.J. Bouye was a Pro Bowl CB in 2017

 

So I see some definite improvement.  But, as you say, until the entire defense can start making consistent stops, it doesn't mean much.  

 

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by BlitzMonster

[Mr. Scot]

I think it's very possible you're going to see a good number of this year's draft picks make it, if for no other reason than that you have a new GM who's looking to make the roster fit his vision (along with Rhule's).

I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see some of this year's draft picks displacing some prior years' draft picks.

[OldhamA]

2 hours ago, d-dave said:

The Huddle:  the first poor play any rookie makes will cause them to be called a bust forever.

Personally, I just want to see guys who try hard.  If we can get that far, that will be an improvement.

Will the trade down draft be worth it?  We'll see...

Everyone's a bust until proven otherwise.

It's was just easier to get Hurney Drafts that way.

[BlitzMonster]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I think it's very possible you're going to see a good number of this year's draft picks make it, if for no other reason than that you have a new GM who's looking to make the roster fit his vision (along with Rhule's).

Because money also.

The Panthers are in salary cap hell right now due to the Bridgewater, Short and Kuechly contracts.  The teams needs a bunch of cheap players this year to compensate for all of that dead money.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, BlitzMonster said:

Because money also.

The Panthers are in salary cap hell right now due to the Bridgewater, Short and Kuechly contracts.  The teams needs a bunch of cheap players this year to compensate for all of that dead money.

Fair point.

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, rayzor said:

i think moore will work his way into the rotation and will start a few games this year. he'll grow into a very reliable part of the OL. 

ceiling...ryan kalil 2.0

floor...geoff hangartner 2.0

He is a UDFA, so if he is just another Tyler Larson, I am okay with that too. Any UDFA that can hang on for quality depth for more than a 2-3 seasons is a win. Anything more than that is an absolute home run.

[MHS831]

24 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

Everyone's a bust until proven otherwise.

 

True in life as well.

[Khyber53]

44 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

Maybe not star power but there's definitely been an increase of talent on the defensive side of the ball in the last couple of years:

(As debatable as the PFF rankings are) PFF gives above average grades to four of our defensive starters:

• DE Brian Burns
• DE Haason Reddick
• LB Denzel Perryman
• CB Donte Jackson 

DL Derrick Brown made the 2020 PFWA All-Rookie Team 

S Jeremy Chinn made the 2020 PFWA All-Rookie Team 

everybody who sees rookie CB Jaycee Horn reports he's big & crazy athletic, the "real deal" 

A.J. Bouye was a Pro Bowl CB in 2017

 

So I see some definite improvement.  But, as you say, until the entire defense can start making consistent stops, it doesn't mean much.  

 

 

I hope they all pan out. I do.

[MHS831]

4 hours ago, CRA said:

I think in 2021 we see Horn start and we see some Marshall worked in to a small but legit role. 

that’s about all I expect in 2021.   Maybe Chubba earns a rep here or there.  Maybe the long snapper has a shot  

Everyone else is going to need some time to develop.  I don’t buy trying to salvage Darnold and then throwing Christisen, Cornbread, Tremble out there on the OL as rookies.   We might see them at some point but I don’t expect their roles to be much as rookies. 

 

Tremble will rotate in and play in the backfield some--to what degree?  No real idea, but I can see him getting up to 25% of the snaps.

[MHS831]

29 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

Because money also.

The Panthers are in salary cap hell right now due to the Bridgewater, Short and Kuechly contracts.  The teams needs a bunch of cheap players this year to compensate for all of that dead money.

Which means Thomas ($2m), JJ ($1m), and possibly Action Jackson (doubtful, but maybe traded) at $2.5m could be sent packing. 

Thomas is nearly certain, JJ probable, and Jackson is probably not, but...

[rayzor]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

He is a UDFA, so if he is just another Tyler Larson, I am okay with that too. Any UDFA that can hang on for quality depth for more than a 2-3 seasons is a win. Anything more than that is an absolute home run.

yeah that is kind of the brilliance of it. because of the limited success for late round picks there's very little risk involved, but the guys they've added from this class could, even with nominal talent, play significant roles for the next couple years...mainly because we were so depleted of talented depth. 

it's easy to have several home runs our of this draft because we had holes and they selected good players who, on a more stacked team, wouldn't have much of a chance. these guys will have an honest shot to make it and more than a couple will.