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Currently sitting at #8 in draft order...who should we pick?


PanthersGOATFan336
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2 hours ago, Soul Rebel said:

For as much as I like Fitts, I would lean into him trading back a bit too much last year hurt us as much as it helped us.

If Neal/Icky/Lindebaum is there when we're up, one of those three should be the selection. 

We already gambled away and lost on the two trades we made that put us in this situation. Don't pass on a franchise OT/IOL to make up for it. Basic kindergarten "two wrongs don't make a right" life lessons.

Taking Terrace Marshall over Creed Humphrey was the real flaw. The trade backs didn't take us out of the position to take good players, we just picked the wrong guys. 

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19 hours ago, Peon Awesome said:

For the trade back brigade, you have to be careful. Your one chance at drafting a franchise LT will be at our current pick, unless you're talking a trade back of like 2 or 3 spots. A top LT doesn't drop past 12 or so. And every year, there tends to be a clear cream of the crop of maybe 10-15 players. So do you give up what's likely to be a 90% probability perennial solid starter with all pro potential, for 2 players with maybe a 30-50% chance to say the same? Another way to think about it, would you have gone back and traded Horn (or Slater or whoever was in the mix) for Marshall, Christenson and Tremble?

According to the NFL chart, a trade back from around 5 should get back a mid and late first, not three day-two picks. Something like getting 14 and 23 from the Eagles for our first, fourth, and fifth. So Horn, Chuba, and Daviyon Dixon vs. Alijah Vera-Tucker and Christian Darrisaw is a closer comp. 

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On 12/19/2021 at 5:40 PM, Peon Awesome said:

For the trade back brigade, you have to be careful. Your one chance at drafting a franchise LT will be at our current pick, unless you're talking a trade back of like 2 or 3 spots. A top LT doesn't drop past 12 or so. And every year, there tends to be a clear cream of the crop of maybe 10-15 players. So do you give up what's likely to be a 90% probability perennial solid starter with all pro potential, for 2 players with maybe a 30-50% chance to say the same? Another way to think about it, would you have gone back and traded Horn (or Slater or whoever was in the mix) for Marshall, Christenson and Tremble?

Personally I would only consider 1 of 2 trade backs:

A) 2022 1st + 1-2 future 1sts, like the Giants did with Chicago for Fields or Miami's trade with San Francisco for Lance. This is ideal if we decide on a full rebuild where we stock up on extra picks in future years that could help us land our franchise qb, or surround him with protection if we opt to pick one in 2022. You're already seeing how valuable that could be with the Giants getting an extra top 10 (possibly top 5) pick from the Bears this year. Pittsburgh trading up to take the local Pickett to become the new face of the franchise after Big Ben retires makes way too much sense and would be great for both teams. And if Pickett struggles like most rookies do, that future 1st could easily land in the top 10.

B) Drop back 3-5 picks and get an extra 2nd or 2 3rds. This is only an option if our top prospect is gone by our pick (e.g. top LT). If they're there, you don't take that chance and grab them at our original spot. 

What I don't want is something like trading back with the Chiefs for their late 1st and 2nd, or even the Jets for their two 2nds including the one we gave them. Too much of a chance that those 2 picks are no more than backups/below average starters for their careers when we could've had a franchise LT.

But it’s not a 90% vs 30% argument, fans always overate the top of the draft.  True numbers are probably closer to something like 55% vs 45%.

 People made the same argument about staying out and taking Derrick Brown, they were convinced there was some huge drop off after pick 8 where there were no more elite players.

 

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Welp, Chicago ain’t winning tonight and the Giants officially ended Jones season and Glennon is awful. Luckily the two of them play each other and we should lose out. Unless Philly or Washington decides it’s going for draft position, I don’t see the Giants winning one if they lose to Chicago. Same for Chicago, have a hard time thinking they win a non-Giants game.

I think we stick with pick 6 and maybe get lucky with pick 5.

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On 12/19/2021 at 5:08 PM, mrcompletely11 said:

He could be a complete bust and you will still be making excuses for him.    See how that works.   It’s funny that you think you are smarter then all the nfl insiders, scouts and teams.    Howell is just not viewed as high as you think he should be.   It’s like that dude last year who had the hard on for trask.    

How many high end 1st round prospects have these insiders and scouts produced lately? Are the percentages in their favor?

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33 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Welp, Chicago ain’t winning tonight and the Giants officially ended Jones season and Glennon is awful. Luckily the two of them play each other and we should lose out. Unless Philly or Washington decides it’s going for draft position, I don’t see the Giants winning one if they lose to Chicago. Same for Chicago, have a hard time thinking they win a non-Giants game.

I think we stick with pick 6 and maybe get lucky with pick 5.

Wont they both have the tie breaker against us because of strength of schedule?

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3 minutes ago, Jared Patterson said:

But isn't the draft set by strength of schedule?

It doesn’t matter. Head to head is meaningless. It’s SOS with easier SOS being worse. I think the point is that if two teams are 6-11, the team that had an easier schedule is assumed to be the worse team and gets the better pick. Also, for teams that tie, the picks rotate so if only two teams are 6-11 the team with the easier SOS gets the better pick in rounds 1, 3, 5 and 7 and the 6-11 team with the harder SOS gets the better pick in rounds 2, 4 and 6. You can have more than two teams tie and you just rotate pick order with more teams. SOS only sets round 1 order before rotation keeps happening.

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22 minutes ago, Jared Patterson said:

Wont they both have the tie breaker against us because of strength of schedule?

No, both of them have a SOS a good enough amount harder than ours that we should keep the tiebreaker with both if we tie. That’s also why we need to lose out. Atlanta and Philly both have even easier SOSs than we do so if we fall back into a tie with one or both they will leap ahead of us. We are in a good spot if we lose out in that we really can’t fall back but could pass both NY and Chicago if they both can win and luckily they have to play each other.

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Crazy thought.  Trade down twice.   

For instance Cleveland decides they just have to have the top wr of class so they trade up to 7. 

17, 49 and 81 for our pick. 

Then NY giants trade up from 37 for a QB or offensive line help available at 17.  Both positions we need by the way.  But 17 and 105 for 37, 69 and 78.  

Yeah we have traded out of the first 10 picks even the whole first round.  Crazy I know but the positions we really need like center, guards, MLB and free safety are available all through the 2nd and 3rd round.  Of which we now have 5 instead of 0.  Add on a blockbuster trade of CMC that nets Houston's pick in the second and we have two picks right outside the 1st.  

 

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3 minutes ago, stbugs said:

It doesn’t matter. Head to head is meaningless. It’s SOS with easier SOS being worse. I think the point is that if two teams are 6-11, the team that had an easier schedule is assumed to be the worse team and gets the better pick. Also, for teams that tie, the picks rotate so if only two teams are 6-11 the team with the easier SO,S gets the better pick in rounds 1, 3, 5 and 7 and the 6-11 team with the harder SOS gets the better pick in rounds 2, 4 and 6. You can have more than two teams tie and you just rotate pick order with more teams. SOS only sets round 1 order before rotation keeps happening.

Yeah, wasn't paying attention and answered about playoff seeding.

Pretty sure none of us are headed to the playoffs this year 😆

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Just now, Mr. Scot said:

Yeah, wasn't paying attention and answered about playoff seeding.

Pretty sure none of us are headed to the playoffs this year 😆

Yeah, not sure how you get Giants and Panthers = playoff question. Fairly certain there we will both complete 2022 sans playoffs making it a minimum 5 year drought for us, Giants, Jets, Jax and Detroit, you know the current poo teams.

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