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Tropical Storm Ian

jayboogieman

By jayboogieman,
in Huddle Lounge

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Ja Rhule Grand Master

Ja Rhule

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Paa Langfart said:

That is some low damn country in there and all the sea islands as well.  Even a reduced strength storm will hit them hard.  

 ventusky is an interesting site and now one of my bookmarks 

I have been using ventusky for years.  They are almost always ahead of NOAA by a day.

This storm is going to soak South East.

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The NFL Shield At Midfield Grand Master

The NFL Shield At Midfield

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Posted

Ventusky doesn't have its own models or forecasts, it animates the data generated by models like ICON or GFS.  If you look in the bottom left there's a dropdown box to choose which one you want.

The National Hurricane Center generates its forecasts based on an aggregate of like four or five different models, so if one model is way off what the others are predicting it won't be reflected in the track until the others come to a consensus.  GFS and ECMWF which are two of the other main models NOAA uses haven't predicted as wild of a swing east as ICON has yet, although it seems to be creeping that way.

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beo Grand Master

beo

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Posted (edited)

As far as impacts on SC go it's pretty much just going to come down to last second "wobbles", slight alterations in the track that occur naturally.  Wobbles like this are what saved Lake Charles from getting the worst of Laura a few years back. The more time it spends over sea, the more severe the impacts will be because it'll give it more time over warm sea surface tempuratures to strengthen so any shift to the east will help it develop further after re-emergence. The models seem to be split on just how long it's actually going to spend over sea if it even re-emerges at all.  Each model is an individual run and models are incorrect all the time which is why the NHC uses an aggregate of multiple, reliable models rather than just taking one as the word of god. That is what their cones/forecasts consist of.

The ICON, a model which has been quite reliable so far with regards to this particular storm, thinks it'll re-emerge and strengthen significantly in approach to SC into probably a major.  To my knowledge the ICON is the most "radical" of the models at the moment. The EURO also seems to be in favor of re-emergence but as a much weaker system, probably a TS or low end Cat 1. The storm has already shifted east quite a lot from initial projections. It's a bit far out to know for sure, just have to wait and see.

EURO on top, ICON on bottom.ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_us_fh3-99.thumb.gif.becbd06cf748ce91c3fa148070a3beaa.gif
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh3-69.thumb.gif.30b18335a2557c00dd0be42822ade206.gif

Edited by beo
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beo Grand Master

beo

Posted
Posted

Worst case scenario for this would probably be it going north east into Fort Myers or something and then re-emerging over which seems to be what things are trending towards... ;/ undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle atm but man this thing looks like it's starting to head more easterly as seen at the very end of this loop. Interested to see what it looks like at 11. 233187950_image0(2).thumb.gif.51bef03ab9945142ddab44709e996c1d.gif

Wind steering layers pointing it quite far east as well(these "guide" hurricanes along their path a good bit of the time):
IMG_1030.gif.ed16a5fd1b2678434ceb5cdebabfe1ca.gif

This isn't good for Florida either. That part of the state wasn't preparing to get the brunt of it, that was more focused up in Tampa. 

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