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Executives grade trade activity

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

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poundaway Grand Master

poundaway

Posted
Posted
On 11/3/2022 at 11:54 PM, carpanfan96 said:

Do what??? The success rate (average starter for 4 years) is like 60% in round 1, 50% in round 2, high 30's in round 3 at best depending on position.  An average to good draft gets 1-2 players at best that stick with a team past the rookie contract. 

 

The rate of a 3rd rounder getting a second deal with any team is around 45%. 

Round 2 is 65% to get a second deal. 

21% of all draft picks become average starters or better based on AV. 

2nd and 3rd round picks not being starters and being out of the league in 4 years is more likely than getting a starter from either of those rounds.

I like the McCaffery trade but the averages say those picks probably don't turn into any starters at all. 

How many HOFers do teams average with those picks?

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Move the Panthers to Raleigh Grand Master

Move the Panthers to Raleigh

Posted
Posted
On 11/3/2022 at 8:26 AM, LinvilleGorge said:

It ultimately comes down to wins and losses and championships. It looked for years like the Chargers fleeced the Giants in that Eli Manning trade. They got an arguably better QB in Rivers and made good use of that bevy of picks. But at the end of it all, the Giants got two rings out of the deal. So who really won that trade?

 

Are you implying that CMC will lead SF to two SB wins?

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KatsAzz Grand Master

KatsAzz

Posted
Posted (edited)

It is hard to call the Panthers parting with a player as talented as McCaffrey a winner, but that seems to be the case.

The reality is that they will soon be starting over with a new head coach and could be staring down a significant overhaul.

Holding on to a running back who has missed 23 games since the start of the 2020 regular season does not help; nor does having his contract on the books.

Edited by KatsAzz
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1of10Charnatives Mentor

1of10Charnatives

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, poundaway said:

How many HOFers do teams average with those picks?

It's far from certain CMC winds up in the HOF. Plenty of players with all the talent in the world didn't make HOF because injuries limited their careers.

At this juncture, this far into a RB career, are you telling me you'd bet AGAINST this happening to CMC? 

I didn't think so. So let's not pretend we just gave up a HOFer in that trade. We gave up a very talented player with a problematic contract, unsettling injury history, and at a juncture where he's unlikely to have more than one or two more productive seasons left in him at most.

I love CMC too, but that's the reality.

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      And as I asked this again before, what goes into PFF's man open %, as I know you've brought that stat up before. Is that just the number of routes he gets open at any point during the route, or is it calculated on targets and if he was open when the ball got to him. Because like I pointed out so many times in the lead up to the draft, a big reason it was harder for him to get separation against man was because he not only had his man on him, but he was double or triple teamed on the majority of his routes this past year.  Just because of that alone, it was easier for him to get open against zone coverage where he could find holes and sit in them. Also, again, as been discussed so many times, his QB's play this year was awful, and lots of times his contested catches were due to him not delivering the ball on time when T-Mac got open.  Or just times he got open but wasn't targeted for whatever reason. So just using that stat as a way to say he struggles to get open against man is more likely than not, disingenuous. Hell, it's a PFF stat that you're using against him, yet at the same time, PFF absolutely loves him, he was their 4th overall player.   I posted this clip on here a week or so ago of the T-Mac vs Hunter game in 2023, where the anti T-Mac guys like to say Hunter shut him down.  But numerous times in this video you see T-Mac create tons of separation from Hunter but the ball wasn't thrown his way, plus a clear PI that wasn't called (and the one that was). https://x.com/4MR_Fetti/status/1918262063660454227 The "he can't separate" narrative is way overblown and become something more myth than reality.  No, he's not an elite separator like some of the quick twitch WRs, but he's so much better than the haters here like to say.
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