How can you predict the success of a college QB in the NFL?

[Mother Grabber]

22 minutes ago, d-dave said:

While you're there, can you get me to next lottery numbers?

6

[Varking]

On 3/8/2023 at 10:17 AM, Jon Snow said:

You can't.  You could narrow down the most pro ready in a draft class but whether that player will be the best of the group in the nfl is pure luck. Ususlly that guy turns out not be the best of the class. 

Usually because in the NFL the team around him matters and usually the best guys are going to the worst teams. 

[StealthCat]

Bryce Young has a lot of traits you look for, other than the durability concern, which is a concern only at this point. He ran an NFL offense at Bama under Bill O'Brien where he executed pre-snap reads and was able to progress through his reads with good processing speed. He showed pocket awareness, moved well in the pocket, moved well out of the pocket, showed plenty of offscript playmaking ability, very accurate, throws with anticipation, is a leader on the field, and has that "it" factor known as having that "dawg" in him. Give him the ball late with the chance to go win the game, more often than not he made it happen. Is said to be of tremendous character, very smart, and very coachable. If he were of average NFL QB size, he would undoubtedly be the top player in this draft.

Stroud showed a lot of those characteristics in the Georgia game, can that be the norm for him is hard to say. Stroud like other OSU QB's and Lincoln Riley QB's are not asked to go through pre-snap reads as those reads come from the sidelines. QB gets the offense to the ball and looks to the sideline for the call. Stroud seems like a very smart, coachable kid, so I believe he can adjust. 

Want a late round guy that might potentially have that "it" or "dawg" factor, look at Jake Haener.

[thefuzz]

OK.

First, you really can't, although some years/classes you can kinda see who should work out, and who shouldn't.

I really believe in college starts at the QB position.  These players with very few starts/years starting bother me...just not a fan of it.

I'm totally going off of gut feeling here, but the Power 10 schools that produce the most NFL talent sorely lack in producing NFL QB's...I think some of that is their ability to win the starting gig at LSU, or Bama, or OSU.

Yes, there are wild cards like Cam and Burrow, but those guys are total outliers.  Don't have a ton of starts in D1 and still were able to be bosses out there.  Brady could be in that convo as well.

How many starts did Manning 1 and 2 have in college?  Rivers, Big Ben, Brees.....etc.  These are older dudes, but guys who started in the league for a LONG time.

If they have say....30-40 starts in D1, you have a VERY good idea of what they can do....hell, they likely beat out a Senior or Junior as a rookie....tells you something.

[WUnderhill]

12 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

Bart Starr, Len Dawson, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, Ken Stabler, Jim Plunkett, Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, Jim Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, Rich Gannon, Chris Chandler, Neil O'Donnell, Stan Humphries, Steve Grogan, David Woodley, Ken Anderson, Ron Jaworski, Vince Ferragamo, Fran Tarkenton, Joe Kapp, Daryle Lamonica, Mark Brunell, Jake Plummer, Erik Kramer, Jay Schroeder, Wade Wilson, Dieter Brock, Jim Zorn, Danny White, Dan Fouts, Pat Haden, Bob Lee, James Harris, George Blanda, Bill Nelsen, Jack Kemp, Don Meredith, and Brock Purdy all agree with you.

That would be 52 of the 107 QBs who have seen an NFL championship game.

85% of all QBs who are given a franchise opportunity make it to the playoffs (6th round to undrafted get to the playoffs more [91%] than 1st round QBs [81%]). Then you have QBs who win playoff games and never get to a championship game. Then you have the championship QBs listed above who you have championed.

For those who take exception to history, there have been 42 QBs who have gone to a championship game since 2000. 14 are on the above list, and 11 of them went to the SB. 12 have been 1st round picks that went to the SB for the team that drafted them. In the last 10 seasons, there have been 17 QBs making it to that coveted championship game. 5 are on the above list, and 4 have been to the SB. Only 5 1st round picks have made it to the SB for the team that drafted them.

Don't look at the greater probability of success with the average Joe's. Don't factor in the 100% increase in 1st round QBs over the last 12 years (40 1st round QBs; 85 over first 44 seasons). Nothing to see there. They are not busts, they are just 1st round projects - 3rd time's a charm. Oversaturating the NFL with 1st round projects is in no way decreasing opportunities for the late round and undrafted QBs with a greater probability of getting a team to a SB (4 in 5 is definitely not better than 5 in 10).

Drafting a 1st round QB definitely has a clear advantage over those average Joe's. Those Joe's just can't keep up with those 1st round Joe's. We all will be happy trading up in the 1st round for that Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow instead of getting that Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, or that Joe Theismann and Art Monk.

And 1st round franchise picks have been the best for building a decade long dynasty. There's... Terry Bradshaw compared to Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Stabler/Plunkett, Montana/Young, Theismann/Williams/Rypien, and Brady. Ok, well 1st round picks have dominated the half decade dynasty with Bob Griese, Troy Aikman, Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes. Decade long dynasties are overrated.

Let's trade 5 1st round picks to trade up for Bryce Young. Nothing else will give us a similar or better shot at winning a championship!!!

Ok, now tell us how many QBs are drafted in the first round and what is the % of success of those QBs compared to the % of all other QBs. I don’t think it will support your point but who are we kidding you’ll cherry pick whatever you can find that supports your world view, no matter how flawed. Just like you think saying 52 of 107 QBs to make it to a championship game were not first rd QBs supports not drafting a first rd QB. That’s actually a huge argument in favor of first round QBs lol.

[stan786]

3 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

Ok, now tell us how many QBs are drafted in the first round and what is the % of success of those QBs compared to the % of all other QBs. I don’t think it will support your point but who are we kidding you’ll cherry pick whatever you can find that supports your world view, no matter how flawed. Just like you think saying 52 of 107 QBs to make it to a championship game were not first rd QBs supports not drafting a first rd QB. That’s actually a huge argument in favor of first round QBs lol.

Yeah the fact of 50% of those QBs were first rounders vs the population size of total drafted QBs is a giant indicator that first round pick QBs are a significantly more efficient way to go about finding your QB.

[ForJimmy]

7 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

Ok, now tell us how many QBs are drafted in the first round and what is the % of success of those QBs compared to the % of all other QBs. I don’t think it will support your point but who are we kidding you’ll cherry pick whatever you can find that supports your world view, no matter how flawed. Just like you think saying 52 of 107 QBs to make it to a championship game were not first rd QBs supports not drafting a first rd QB. That’s actually a huge argument in favor of first round QBs lol.

That guy cherry picks and then ignores countering data.  He was wanting us to draft Aqeel Glass last year who went undrafted and is now in the USFL of which he wanted us to sign his USFL coach as our OC and still sign that player.  He also thinks Icky is a bust.  He is all over the place man.  He also claims he knew Tom Brady would be that great when no other NFL franchise did....

[BrianS]

FWIW -

The general rule is that 50% of first round QB's go on to have successful careers in the NFL.  Not saying they are all time greats or anything, just that they have good careers.

For all other rounds, the average is about 10%.