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Dane Brugler's 2023 Draft Guide a.k.a. "The Beast"


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5 hours ago, Jackie Lee said:

Anyone else think Bryce's parents are like overly clingy? They literally moved to Alabama just to be around him for college?

Uhhhhh, I think if my son was QB for Alabama and winning Heisman trophies I would want to attend all his games in person and be there for him as much as possible.  I played a sport in college, which was 2 hours from my home, and my dad drove up every weekend to see me play.  

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6 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I said it first at a dinner party.

1. 5 Edge players ranked in the top 21.  I think the Panthers might trade back from #39 if Ojulari is not there.  Reason?  If they want an Edge, You would have Felix, McDonald IV, White, Hall, and Foskey between #44 and #60. 

2. CBs Juluis Brentz (K state)  and Corey Trice (Purdue) are good fits and could be available with pick 93.  I worry that there could be 2 lingering at #39 that could tempt the Panthers--Ringo and Forbes.  My preference is to wait until day three and draft Terrell Smith.

3. If you really want a TE from this draft with the third rounder, take Luke Schoonmaker.  He will be a solid starter in this league.  He is a sleeper because he played behind one of the best TEs in the NCAA at Michigan, but he was still able to post decent stats. If not,  Brenton Strange (Penn State) would be the TE I would target --https://www.nfl.com/prospects/brenton-strange/32005354-5218-8631-c965-3e23bcc23565

4,  If you look at the WRs between #76 and #86, it is reasonable to expect one to drop to 93.  We have already had contact with Mingo.

So, based on this list, here is what I would do: 

Pick 39:  If Quentin Johnson (WR) and BJ Ojulari (Edge) drop, I think the Panthers take that player.  If not, I think they might consider CBs Forbes or Ringo.  Personally, I want an edge in the second round, so I trade back in round 2 and take an Edge like Hall or McDonald IV.  I would then (possibly) move up from #93 to make sure I grabbed a WR--Mims, Rice, or Mingo.

Sleeper I would grab in round 4 (you heard it here first):  CB Terell Smith (Minnesota). https://www.nfl.com/prospects/terell-smith/3200534d-4973-9042-a2e5-7a611c3c3214

So what would I do if the draft were today and I was given the job?

1.  Bryce Young.  51% sure.

39.  Assuming no player is there that would make me jump, I would try to trade back about 15 spots to about #54, adding a third round selection (somewhere around #85).  With the 54th pick, I would take Edge Derrick Hall or Will McDonald IV.

85.  From that spot, I am really eyeing WR because I like a few who should be on the board--Mimms, Mingo, and my favorite, Rice. I throw in my fifth rounder if necessary to move up to take Mims or Rice.

93.  Brenton Strange, TE Penn State. 

114.  Offensive line depth--I would hope that USC Guard (with Tackle ability) Andrew Vorhees would drop due to the injury he is rehabbing.   He would be ready to start in a year or two.

132.  Terell Smith, CB Minnesota

 

good stuff 

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22 hours ago, Jackie Lee said:

This was incredibly easy to download for free fyi

congratulations on discovering pirating. If you're an adult with a paying job though it would be nice to support Dane for his absolute fug ton of work he puts into this

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4 hours ago, SOJA said:

congratulations on discovering pirating. If you're an adult with a paying job though it would be nice to support Dane for his absolute fug ton of work he puts into this

I didn't pirate anything, they provided the password and link before the paywall 

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    • Would Morgan or Beason have been HOFers' if injuries hadn't derailed their careers?  I was not a close watcher of the game when Morgan was in his prime but I thought Beason had a few seasons at close to Lukes' level of play.
    • Franchise QBs feast when things are rolling and the tide that raises boats when things are going sideways.  Bryce isn't that. He's a complimentary player, that's it.  When the defense and STs are on point, he plays loose and it shows.  When we are in a dog fight and things haven't gone our way, he struggles.  It's that simple. He's not a horrible QB, but he's not top tier either.  So the question begs, is this worthy of a second contract?  The answer should be no.  It definitely is my answer. Bryce will never be a QB that can produce wins largely on his arm.  That's a FRANCHISE QB, any other QB is simply a placeholder at the starter's position until that guy can be found.   At some point the excuses of lack of weapons will be a straw man.  Heck, it's nearly there now.  I mean if he doesn't look even better than last year will we blame it on the TE position?  'Well if Bryce only had a player like Kelce, Kittle or Gronk on this team...'  Are we really going to do that?  
    • When I arrived at college, I was 18, not too much younger than some of these draft picks.  It was not a huge school, but there were guys on the team who were 21, 22, 23....playing ahead of me.  I was seventh on the depth chart.  Those guys have been through a few seasons, were stronger, more knowledgeable.  I was a better raw player than some of them, but those other factors matter.  As I grew stronger, more familiar with the playbook, and learned what it was like to play in college, I gradually improved and with that, I rose up the depth chart.  It took most of my freshman year for the light to come on.  Had the coach thrown me into the starting lineup day 1, I would have probably failed.    And that was college.  So I agree with you based on my experience on a much lower level.  Frankly, I think that is why so many kids drafted to fill huge gaps bust.  The teams are desperate.  Anyone who looks to fill vacancies in the starting lineup through the draft is desperate.  You draft depth to develop.  For this reason, I say, "Let Walker start for a while."  Maybe Brazzell can be our WR 4.  Throw Hunter into a rotation and ask him to do one or two things.  Freeling needs some strength and he needs to work on run blocking.
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