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It depends, but I see our ceiling at 7-10


top dawg
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11 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Smithers, no one ( with the exception of possibly John Harbaugh) is going all-out to win during the preseason. And, no, I'm not concerned by what Reich said because it's realistic, especially considering the circumstances. We are anything but a settled team. Everything is basically new. It's going to take time to develop players, processes and actually smooth the rough edges out. 

I didn’t say folks are going all out, but I’ve watched a lot of preseason games, and just about every team is running a nice mix of plays, countering blitzes with screens, taking deep shots often, and showing a good amount of creativity.  They’re also blitzing a lot and disguising coverages at the line.  You want to see if the schemes you will run in the season are effective at all during preseason.  If nothing else, let your guys get reps doing what they’ll be asked to do week 1.  We aren’t doing any of that.  I could care less about winning.  But I would like us to look like we are trying to play competent football.  

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2 minutes ago, Smithers said:

I didn’t say folks are going all out, but I’ve watched a lot of preseason games, and just about every team is running a nice mix of plays, countering blitzes with screens, taking deep shots often, and showing a good amount of creativity.  They’re also blitzing a lot and disguising coverages at the line.  You want to see if the schemes you will run in the season are effective at all during preseason.  If nothing else, let your guys get reps doing what they’ll be asked to do week 1.  We aren’t doing any of that.  I could care less about winning.  But I would like us to look like we are trying to play competent football.  

Fair enough. I think the OC was showing some of that offensively during the second half...

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6 hours ago, top dawg said:

I've been trying really hard to see what others see, and I can't do that without making assumptions, taking a giant leap of faith and basically just throwing better judgement out the window, but I'm willing to play a game. I'm looking at our schedule and assuming that we're going to split with our division rivals (which is reasonable, though not guaranteed), how are we getting to the playoffs?

How does our all-star, know-it-all, can-do-no-wrong, perfection-personified of a coaching staff full of football gods improve upon a 7-10 season last year?

Don't get me wrong! I've told you many times over the years that historically we're likely not going to have an inkling of what we have until probably mid October. So, anything is possible! It really is. But on this day, pre season,  I can't see us winning more than 7 (maybe 8 if I'm hedging) games, and a lot is going to have to go silky smooth for us to do it.

Again, I'm assuming that we split with our division rivals. I think that some of you playoffs-or-bust people must be assuming that we're going to ride roughshod over the NFCS (which has really only happened once if you think about it), and that not only are our division rivals not improving, but all of our other rivals this year have stayed in a state of inertia, and that we're the only ones that have improved. Most people outside of Carolina---err, the Carolina Huddle, just don't believe that. 

So, take some time and explain to me why you believe that we're going to do something that almost never happens in the division and/or look at the opponents below and tell me why you believe that we're going to beat them, and try to do it analytically without all the emotions and grand generalizations.

Homer glasses off!

 

 

Week 3: 9/24 at Seahawks        L

Week 4: 10/1 vs. Vikings.            W

Week 5: 10/8 at Detroit Lions.     L

Week 6: 10/15 at Dolphins.          L

Week 8: 10/29 vs. Texans.          W

Week 9: 11/5 vs. Colts.                W

Week 10: 11/9 at Bears                L

Week 11: 11/19 vs. Cowboys.       L

Week 12: 11/26 at Titans.             L

Week 16: 12/24 vs. Packers.        W

Week 17: 12/31 at Jaguars.           L

 

This is pretty close to what I am expecting. I think we have 6 wins. I don't have us beating the Packers, and I see us getting 3 wins out of the division, not a true split, with a sweep of the Bucs and getting swept by the Falcons.

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9 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

In the past decade the nfc south winner has won double digit games all but 2 times.   Last year and us in 2014.   There has never been a wild card team with single digit wins in 20 years.   So unless you truly think this team can win 11-12 games then I would not hold my breath on the playoffs.   I just hope to see progression and competency for this team and staff.  

 

In closing last year was a complete aberration and not anywhere close to the norm.

 

The past decade the division has had Brees, Brady, and then Cam and Ryan during their primes. Ridder, Carr, Baker and rookie Bryce aren’t on their level. Bryce to me is the only one with potential to be a mainstay.

Edited by X-Clown
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52 minutes ago, X-Clown said:

The past decade the division has had Brees, Brady, and then Cam and Ryan during their primes. Ridder, Carr, Baker and rookie Bryce aren’t on their level. Bryce to me is the only one with potential to be a mainstay.

I really don't know what at this point makes you think that Desmond Ridder won't be around. His needle has actually been trending upward since the end of last season. 

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6 hours ago, top dawg said:

I really don't know what at this point makes you think that Desmond Ridder won't be around. His needle has actually been trending upward since the end of last season. 

He has started all of 4 games and was just OK. I saw nothing that made me think that’s a 10 year starter and a thorn in our side. I am not even convinced he won’t be yanked I’m favor of Taylor Heinicke if he struggles this year.  Not sure how you came to the conclusion where you already put him in the Brees/Brady/Ryan/Newton category yet.

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18 hours ago, onmyown said:

The ceiling is 8. Slightly better than last year but considering we’ve averaged like barley 6 wins in the past half decade - people need to realize this IS optimistic. 

It’s the reason behind 8 wins that’s what should be looked at. Is it a learning curve as it should be? Or more bullshit from this franchise looking like they’ll never learn.

People say we are improved from last year because we have a better team, but don’t account for the learning curve. It’s a casual fan take, or patience wearing thin. But it overlooks the facts, how football/team building general works in NFL history.

Because even 6 wins due to the curve will make me happy. I just want a bright future and as I’ve said the record means very little this year.

Agree to disagree. You gave up the farm for a QB (in a weak QB Draft) and passed over exciting up-and-coming HCs for a retread.

I expect this team to win out of the gate or those moves were the wrong ones.

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10 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

I expect this team to win out of the gate or those moves were the wrong ones.

We have a rookie QB, new scheme, and the weakest skill talent around the QB being trotted out in week 1 in a long time.  

I think we will be 2-4 when we hit the bye week.  

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