Panthers Mock Offseason 2024

[Jay Roosevelt]

My take on what the Panthers can do to improve this offseason.

I've run these moves through Spotrac's NFL cap manager/roster simulator in order to ensure we'd be under the cap.

 

FRANCHISE TAG:
EDGE Brian Burns

CONTRACT RESTRUCTURES:
S  Von Bell ($3.9M cap savings)
OG Austin Corbett ($3.4M cap savings)

RELEASES:
TE Ian Thomas ($2.6M cap savings)

 

TRADES:
EDGE Brian Burns + 5th round pick (#141) to Lions for 1st round pick (#29) + 3rd round pick (#92)
At this point we need to either pay Burns or trade him. I'm honestly split on which one is our best option. Do I think he's worth $30M/year? Not really. But is he also our only pass rush threat off the edge? Absolutely. It's a tough spot and, perhaps, Scott Fitterer's biggest blunder as GM on a LONG list of them. However, while I still think an extension can happen there doesn't seem to be much momentum in that direction right now and Burns being tagged and traded appears to be the more likely scenario.

That said, we're not getting a Rams type deal now; the leverage just isn't there. But we should still be able to get a 1st rounder and another pick (or possibly a player of similar value) for Burns. In this scenario we trade him to the Detroit Lions for their 1st rounder (#29 overall) and 3rd rounder (#92) while throwing in our 5th rounder. This deal makes sense for both sides; the Panthers get picks we desperately need and the Lions get an impact pass rusher as they try to get over the hump and into the Super Bowl.

 

CONTRACT EXTENSIONS:
DT Derrick Brown : 4 YEARS, $75M (potential cap savings depend on contract structure)
We should be able to get Brown extended without significantly raising his cap hit this year, assuming the contract is structured correctly. He's one of the few consistent core players we have; gotta get him locked up long-term before this turns into another Brian Burns fiasco. Depending on the structure of the contract it's entirely possible this move could actually save us cap space this year.

RT Taylor Moton : 3 YEARS, $55M ($13M cap savings, est.)
This is as much as about lowering Moton's cap hit this year as it is about extending him beyond it. We can cut his cap hit in half for 2024 while adding 2 years to his deal and locking him up through 2026. Like Derrick Brown, Moton is one of the few consistently reliable players we have and on the OL no less. He's not as young as Brown, but if we can extend him while actually lowering his cap hit for 2024 that is an easy call, IMO.

LB Frankie Luvu : 4 YEARS, $50M
One of our better players who absolutely deserves an extension. I imagine this gets done as I think Luvu is a perfect fit for the kind of player Dan Morgan talked about wanting on this team moving forward.

DE Yetur Gross-Matos : 2 YEARS, $8M
YGM finally started to show flashes last year of the player we wanted when we drafted him in the 2nd round. I wouldn't break the bank for him, but a mid-level deal like this makes sense for both sides, IMO. Alternatively, a 1-year "prove it" deal could also work.

 

FREE AGENCY:
OG Robert Hunt (MIA) : 4 YEARS, $73M
Our biggest need by far, IMO, is the interior OL. Robert Hunt is one of the better pass blocking guards over the last few seasons and would be an immediate and HUGE upgrade over anyone we fielded at LG last season. This move will allow Brady Christensen to become the "6th man" of the OL; a solid backup who can play guard or tackle on either side of the OL. By signing Hunt we're not just filling a need for a high quality starter on the interior OL but also giving ourselves some quality versatile depth with Christensen.

EDGE Jonathan Greenard (HOU) : 4 YEARS, $70M
If we do end up trading Brian Burns we'll obviously need to address edge rusher somehow. We have a need there now WITH him so if he gets traded it'll become even bigger. If he makes it to free agency, Jonathan Greenard would be a great replacement for Burns. He's a better run defender and had more sacks than Burns this past season and, based on Spotrac's market value projection, would be a fair bit cheaper, though certainly not cheap.

WR Tyler Lockett (SEA) : 2 YEARS, $20M
There are a few options available at WR in free agency, but with Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman getting tagged there aren't any real true long-term #1 options out there outside of Mike Evans and giving a 30+ year old WR the kind of money he'll command isn't ideal for a rebuilding team and Calvin Ridley isn't much younger, which surprised me. What we need is a solid starting veteran option to help stabalize our WR corp (alongside Adam Thielen) while our young receivers (both Mingo + any players we draft this year) develop and play without the pressure of being THE #1 guy right away. Tyler Lockett is very likely to be a cap casualty in Seattle and would be a perfect pickup for us. He's also over 30, but should come significantly cheaper than Mike Evans and has more history with Dave Canales. He also provides much more of a deep threat than anyone currently on the roster.

EDGE Josh Uche (NE) : 1 YEAR, $6M
We need depth on the edge as much as we need to figure out who our top pass rusher is going to be. Signing a guy like Josh Uche makes a lot of sense.

 

2024 NFL DRAFT:
#29 : Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
If our first pick (wherever it ends up being) isn't an OL or WR I'll be extremely surprised. If JPJ is on the board in this scenario the Panthers shouldn't overthink it; he's a likely future All-Pro center for the next decade. Should things fall this way we could opt to release Bradley Bozeman after the draft or just keep him for competition/depth as we'd only be saving $2M in cap space by cutting him.

#33 : Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
We obviously need help at WR, even after signing Tyler Lockett in this scenario. Adonai Mitchell figures to be one of the best options available at #33. He could step right in and contribute as a great route runner with playmaking ability.

#65 : Bucky Irving, RB, Oregon
Chuba Hubbard has played well, but we need both depth at RB and someone who can provide a little more in the passing game. Bucky Irving could be a major factor in our offense if the way Dave Canales used the RBs as receivers in Tampa is any indication.

#92 : Payton Wilson, LB, N.C. State
It seems like we've lacked any real depth at linebacker for a while now. Frankie Luvu has been one of the few pleasant surprises in the Tepper era and in this scenario we have extended him. But Shaq Thompson is coming into a contract year and off a major injury so adding a solid linebacker with some upside like Payton Wilson isn't a bad idea. I think he fits the profile of the kind of player Dan Morgan has said he wants to add and probably should go higher than this but will probably end up going around this range due to some durability concerns. However, the risk is worth it here.

#102 : Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington
We need depth on the OL as much as we need starters. Roger Rosengarten is a player with starting potential who would be great value if still on the board at this stage of the draft.

#165 : Nehemiah Pritchett, CB, Auburn
In this scenario we opt not to re-sign C.J. Henderson. Considering Jaycee Horn's issues staying healthy (and Donte Jackson dealing with injuries himself) it goes without saying we need depth at corner.

#180 : Justin Eboigbe, DL, Alabama
Adding some depth along the DL never hurts.

[LinvilleGorge]

It's surprising to me how much both the fanbase and the team seem to be overlooking the TE position. Hurst is an absolute bust of a FA signing and anyone paying attention saw that coming. Ian Thomas was an absolute bust of a re-signing and anyone paying attention saw that coming. Tremble is a #2 TE at best and would be fighting to hang onto a roster spot at #3 on a good roster.

[45catfan]

I was on board with most of this, however, I don't like the Irving pick or double dipping at OL.  You cut Thomas (I agree) but did nothing to replace him in the draft or FA.

[rayzor]

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's surprising to me how much both the fanbase and the team seem to be overlooking the TE position. Hurst is an absolute bust of a FA signing and anyone paying attention saw that coming. Ian Thomas was an absolute bust of a re-signing and anyone paying attention saw that coming. Tremble is a #2 TE at best and would be fighting to hang onto a roster spot at #3 on a good roster.

Agreed. We've got to get a good TE in here. Something we can't afford to overlook.  Even if it's like Jared Wiley. Just get one here.

[45catfan]

There are some decent TEs in FA.  Hopefully it's a soft market and we can get one of the better dudes at a reasonable price if we can hold our water and not sling money at players on the outset of FA.  I was always skeptical of Hurst because as a former 1st round pick, he's been passed around more than a hooker at a naval port.  Dudes that bounce around that much, considering he's not that old, usually raises a huge red flag for me.  I know he was dinged up a bit last season, but even when healthy made little impact on our offense.

Edited March 4 by 45catfan

[Newbie]

28 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

I was on board with most of this, however, I don't like the Irving pick or double dipping at OL.  You cut Thomas (I agree) but did nothing to replace him in the draft or FA.

In all fairness, you don’t have to do anything to replace Ian Thomas. 

[Bear Hands]

Greenard or Huff make a lot of sense in FA.  Those two are my favorite targets for us overall, not just at EDGE.  Need more consistent pressure on D.  

Unsure how realistic the Burns trade is.  Think we net a future 1st for him if something happens, but it won't be a 2024 1st.  

[DaveThePanther2008]

50 minutes ago, Jay Roosevelt said:

#92 : Payton Wilson, LB, N.C. State

If he lasts that long I would jump on it very quickly.  His combine workout was stellar and some of the clips they showed he is extremely quick through traffic to make the tackle.  I love this pic. 

[45catfan]

6 minutes ago, Newbie said:

In all fairness, you don’t have to do anything to replace Ian Thomas. 

Agreed with the cheekiness of your comment, but we do need a TE though if he's released.  Sorry, but consistently banged up Hurst and a bunch of JAGs won't cut it.  A day 3 TE in this draft isn't exactly plug and play.

[DaveThePanther2008]

6 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Agreed with the cheekiness of your comment, but we do need a TE though if he's released.  Sorry, but consistently banged up Hurst and a bunch of JAGs won't cut it.  A day 3 TE in this draft isn't exactly plug and play.

I agree, but sadly we only have two picks on day two.  I guess it would have to be BPA between these three groups (OL,WR,TE) or BPA on a player that dropped well below his initial grade. 

[top dawg]

37 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

There are some decent TEs in FA.  Hopefully it's a soft market and we can get one of the better dudes at a reasonable price if we can hold our water and not sling money at players on the outset of FA.  I was always skeptical of Hurst because as a former 1st round pick, he's been passed around more than a hooker at a naval port.  Dudes that bounce around that much, considering he's not that old, usually raises a huge red flag for me.  I know he was dinged up a bit last season, but even when healthy made little impact on our offense.

This list leaves a lot to be desired in my opinion. Unless Tremble develops, we'll be talking about drafting someone in 2025 if we patch things up with one of these guys.

[Stingray3030]

Not disagreeing with anything said - but Stephen Sullivan...I have really liked him in that receiving TE role.  Huge and athletic.  The combo of Sullivan + Tremble is good enough to spend money and draft picks elsewhere.

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

I agree, but sadly we only have two picks on day two.  I guess it would have to be BPA between these three groups (OL,WR,TE) or BPA on a player that dropped well below his initial grade. 

I'm against a TE before round 4 just because we are draft pick poor.   I want WR and RB or EDGE respectfully in rounds 2 and 3.  I would like to trade back once to get an extra pick, Ideally #65, and pick up an additional 4th getting back to four picks by say, selection 120.  That way we can get our WR, RB/EDGE and TE before it gets lean in round 5.  Even then we can get a good CB in the 5th since it's so deep of a class.  Our 6th will simply be BPA as these dudes are flyer picks.  Best OL/DL left on the board.

[Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D.]

#Panthers are expected to trade or release veteran corner Donte Jackson, per sources. Jackson has a $4M roster bonus due March 16, which should spur action. A release would save $5.9M on the cap.