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Restocking with just Pick #39?

chknwing

By chknwing,
in Carolina Panthers

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Krovvy Grand Master

Krovvy

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Just now, Tbe said:

The odds of a 2nd rounder to develop into a starter is 33%. A high 2nd is more like 40%.

The odds of a 3rd drops to 16%.

The math doesn’t favor those trades.

Are we talking starter level player or pro-bowler? I read one article has has picks 31-40 having a 24% chance to net a pro-bowl level player. After that it drops to about 16-18% for 40-70.

Either way, I want the Panthers to take the best player available and only consider trade backs if their board does not match the value of their pick.

It's just a poor strategy to go into the draft with the attitude of acquiring picks instead of talented players.

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Tbe Grand Master

Tbe

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1 minute ago, Krovvy said:

Are we talking starter level player or pro-bowler? I read one article has has picks 31-40 having a 24% chance to net a pro-bowl level player. After that it drops to about 16-18% for 40-70.

Either way, I want the Panthers to take the best player available and only consider trade backs if their board does not match the value of their pick.

It's just a poor strategy to go into the draft with the attitude of acquiring picks instead of talented players.

1st round - about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round developed into solid NFL starters.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into solid NFL starter. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

5th round - about 4-5%.

6th round - about 2%.

7th round - about 1-2%.

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Jon Snow Grand Master

Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, chknwing said:

In my little fantasy world, would it not be crazy to use pick #39 to trade down as many times as possible in the 2nd for a haul of 3rd round picks to restock the team with?

<insert Specialjuan tweet here>

Depends on who is on the board. We need cheap promising starters first and foremost. If there is only potential backup or developmental projects left then I'm open to it.

Edited by Jon Snow
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chknwing Veteran

chknwing

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5 minutes ago, Tbe said:

The odds of a 2nd rounder to develop into a starter is 33%. A high 2nd is more like 40%.

The odds of a 3rd drops to 16%.

The math doesn’t favor those trades.

carolina doesnt draft well, they need more shots to try and hit on something

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Tbe Grand Master

Tbe

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Just now, chknwing said:

carolina doesnt draft well, they need more shots to try and hit on something


If someone has a hard time making the putts, you don’t move them further from the hole.

More swings is not going to help.

Now, if they prove to be good evaluators, sure. But we have the same scouting dept from the past 3 drafts.

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Krovvy Grand Master

Krovvy

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2 minutes ago, chknwing said:

carolina doesnt draft well, they need more shots to try and hit on something

That's true but roster spots themselves are an asset. If you're throwing darts at a board and loading the roster with unknowns it can be a net-negative at some point.

It really depends on the rest of free agency.

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