The value of Pick #33 if traded

[MHS831]

Hello cyber chums,

The Background:  A lot of the mockers are going with scenarios that include QBs Nix and maybe even Penix being taken in the first round.   Today of an ESPN mock show they showed Denver grabbing Nix at #12.  That would be a huge reach, and Payton has never taken a QB in the first round--(if that means anything).  Since the Raiders are unlikely to draft Nix at #13, there are really no teams picking after the Raiders who need a QB. 

Furthermore, some have been predicting that New England will trade back from the #3 position because they have so many needs.  In a QB rich draft and a poor QB draft in 2025, that would be stupid.  So I think they take Maye. 

The Vikings have 2 first round picks and I expect them to trade up with the Cards.  They have the currency to make a move. (Vikings picks 11 and 23 total about 2000 points; the Cards #4 pick is worth 1800). The Giants could also move up, but they would have to use Jones in the trade, meaning that only New England would be interested; I just do not see it happening.   Denver does not have a second round pick, so they are unable to move up using 2024 draft picks.   I think the Giants could decide to hold on to Jones for a while and maybe take a QB later in the draft. 

It is likely that the top 4 QBs are gone in the top 5 picks, with the Raiders, Broncos, and Giants still in the market.  The two QBs who they might have interest in, Nix and Pinix, have early second round grades.  Of course, they could all trade back, but since no team after pick 13 needs a QB, it makes the end of the first round or the beginning of the second round the most obvious landing places.

I think that Denver is going to go after Nix fairly hard, and I can see them trading back to around 28 or so to get him.   When they turn off the lights after round one, they pick up the phones.  It is my guess that the Raiders and possibly the Giants will want to move up for Penix.

The Raiders have picks 44 (460 points) and 77 (205 points, 665 combined).  The #33 pick is worth 580 points.  If the Panthers threw in pick 101 (96 points), it would be a good trade for a QB (665 for 676).  the Raiders could throw in their late 6th rounder (8.2 points) to even it out. 

It is my opinion that Denver will trade back in the first round and take Nix.  The Raiders will trade up to attempt to grab Penix--and the Giants could compete with them, forcing both to deal with the Panthers. 

The Raider trade:

• Vegas:  Pick 44, 77, and 208.  (2nd, 3rd, and 6th)
• Carolina:  Pick 33, 101. (2nd and 4th)

If the Giants decide to trade:

• NY Giants: Picks 47, 70 (670 points--2nd, 3rd)
• Carolina:  Picks 33, 101 (676 points-2nd, 4th)

How would it change the draft for the Panthers?   Panthers picks (rounds 1-3):

•  39, 44, 65  (if trade with Raiders)  No fourth rounder.
• 39, 47, 70 (If traded with NYG) No fourth rounder.

Basically, is it worth the early third round pick for the early fourth round pick to drop 11 to 14 spots in Round 2?  FWIW, I see a pretty substantial drop off at our positions of need in the middle of the third round with most of the mocks I have seen.  If we can get 3 picks in that top 75 picks or so, I am in favor of the trade.

What are your impressions? 

 

[csx]

Doesn't seem to be worth it

[MHS831]

Just now, csx said:

Doesn't seem to be worth it

You have to consider that a player will fall to us at 33 that they thought would be gone--then you have to think, "Is giving up on a first-round talent worth swapping a fourth for a third?"

[Basbear]

15 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Hello cyber chums,

The Background:  A lot of the mockers are going with scenarios that include QBs Nix and maybe even Penix being taken in the first round.   Today of an ESPN mock show they showed Denver grabbing Nix at #12.  That would be a huge reach, and Payton has never taken a QB in the first round--(if that means anything).  Since the Raiders are unlikely to draft Nix at #13, there are really no teams picking after the Raiders who need a QB. 

Furthermore, some have been predicting that New England will trade back from the #3 position because they have so many needs.  In a QB rich draft and a poor QB draft in 2025, that would be stupid.  So I think they take Maye. 

The Vikings have 2 first round picks and I expect them to trade up with the Cards.  They have the currency to make a move. (Vikings picks 11 and 23 total about 2000 points; the Cards #4 pick is worth 1800). The Giants could also move up, but they would have to use Jones in the trade, meaning that only New England would be interested; I just do not see it happening.   Denver does not have a second round pick, so they are unable to move up using 2024 draft picks.   I think the Giants could decide to hold on to Jones for a while and maybe take a QB later in the draft. 

It is likely that the top 4 QBs are gone in the top 5 picks, with the Raiders, Broncos, and Giants still in the market.  The two QBs who they might have interest in, Nix and Pinix, have early second round grades.  Of course, they could all trade back, but since no team after pick 13 needs a QB, it makes the end of the first round or the beginning of the second round the most obvious landing places.

I think that Denver is going to go after Nix fairly hard, and I can see them trading back to around 28 or so to get him.   When they turn off the lights after round one, they pick up the phones.  It is my guess that the Raiders and possibly the Giants will want to move up for Penix.

The Raiders have picks 44 (460 points) and 77 (205 points, 665 combined).  The #33 pick is worth 580 points.  If the Panthers threw in pick 101 (96 points), it would be a good trade for a QB (665 for 676).  the Raiders could throw in their late 6th rounder (8.2 points) to even it out. 

It is my opinion that Denver will trade back in the first round and take Nix.  The Raiders will trade up to attempt to grab Penix--and the Giants could compete with them, forcing both to deal with the Panthers. 

The Raider trade:

• Vegas:  Pick 44, 77, and 208.  (2nd, 3rd, and 6th)
• Carolina:  Pick 33, 101. (2nd and 4th)

If the Giants decide to trade:

• NY Giants: Picks 47, 70 (670 points--2nd, 3rd)
• Carolina:  Picks 33, 101 (676 points-2nd, 4th)

How would it change the draft for the Panthers?   Panthers picks (rounds 1-3):

•  39, 44, 65  (if trade with Raiders)  No fourth rounder.
• 39, 47, 70 (If traded with NYG) No fourth rounder.

Basically, is it worth the early third round pick for the early fourth round pick to drop 11 to 14 spots in Round 2?  FWIW, I see a pretty substantial drop off at our positions of need in the middle of the third round with most of the mocks I have seen.  If we can get 3 picks in that top 75 picks or so, I am in favor of the trade.

What are your impressions? 

 

[ChuckWag78]

The only way I want to move off 33 is if we can get WFT number 36 & 40. I don't know what that works out points wise, but that's the only way I'm doing it. 

[Manna]

Only way I'm moving on from #33 is if a Madden trade comes up where some team offers a future 1st. 

[Jon Snow]

Stopped reading at ESPN. 

[jayboogieman]

Don't trade the pick. Just take the best player available.  The team needs talent, not just bodies.

[chknwing]

I think mogan has enough to prove as new GM.  I think he stands put and takes BPA.  No sense in taking risks in your first few months of trying to establish yourself as a competant GM.

[strato]

You only trade if someone will over pay.

[TheSpecialJuan]

14 minutes ago, strato said:

You only trade if someone will over pay.

Exactly. Say Philadelphia offers both their 2nd's to move up 

[MHS831]

18 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Stopped reading at ESPN. 

It was ridiculous--I agree--but I was not quoting them--I was speculating because the teams that need a QB (we believe) will not all get one--they have Denver taking Nix at #12.  I say, "not likely, especially if they don't have a second rounder..." etc. It is a shame you quite reading because it explains what teams might offer us on day 2----and I predict it will be a team looking to move up for a QB. 

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

Exactly. Say Philadelphia offers both their 2nd's to move up 

I agree, and if the trade is for a QB, and if NYG think LV is going after the same day 2 QB, that could happen.

[MHS831]

This is what we discuss this time of year, folks.  And until we know who is on the board, I do not know how anyone can say with certainty, "I am not moving down..."   You look at the board and make decisions accordingly, so you really should consider possible offers.