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Cam Ward.....opinions (AKA A Thread About Shedeur Sanders)


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1 minute ago, Chief_Chokeaho said:

lol you are you trying to convince me or yourself? Again, I’m not digging up old articles and tweets, but the reality is Bryce was considered the #1 pick by virtually everyone in the weeks leading up to the draft. It’s irrelevant. Bryce is a bust and in hindsight I think we can all agree CJ would have been the right move. You don’t get brownie points for pretending like you know more than literal scouts lol. 

vegas money was squarely on Stroud before the s2 leaked and then it flipped at the last second.

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Just now, ForJimmy said:

Why was Levis randomly the favorite to go one for a day? 

going off memory something was leaked on reddit or something, you would have to go back and read whatever thread there was at the time, but all in all, the sports books dont conspire at the same time to move a line or odds.  There is always something behind it more then likely a surge of betting volume.

 

But to the point stroud was the favorite until a day or so before the draft.  There is a thread and maybe if i get bored this afternoon I will search for it.  But I am pretty sure that the s2, tepper and bryces interviewing flipped the odds

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Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

going off memory something was leaked on reddit or something, you would have to go back and read whatever thread there was at the time, but all in all, the sports books dont conspire at the same time to move a line or odds.  There is always something behind it more then likely a surge of betting volume.

 

But to the point stroud was the favorite until a day or so before the draft.  There is a thread and maybe if i get bored this afternoon I will search for it.  But I am pretty sure that the s2, tepper and bryces interviewing flipped the odds

Oh yeah something got leaked during draft month lol. Something gets leaked all the time and it’s usually a lie. Everyone knew Levis wasn’t going 1. It got more people betting. I hope no one followed Vegas religiously in relations to the draft…

https://www.si.com/betting/2023/04/28/will-levis-draft-snub-big-loss-for-bettors
 

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1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

vegas money was squarely on Stroud before the s2 leaked and then it flipped at the last second.

Stroud only became the favorite after Carolina's visit. Before that Young was the favorite and had been since before the end of the season leading up to the draft. Then Young became the favorite again following his pro day/Carolina visit.

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1 hour ago, ForJimmy said:

Oh yeah something got leaked during draft month lol. Something gets leaked all the time and it’s usually a lie. Everyone knew Levis wasn’t going 1. It got more people betting. I hope no one followed Vegas religiously in relations to the draft…

https://www.si.com/betting/2023/04/28/will-levis-draft-snub-big-loss-for-bettors
 

Here is the Levis thread.  I havent read through it

 

I found the other betting odds threads and it appears stroud was the leader going into april and then bets were off as bryce was the fav a week before draft.

 

When I get back this afternoon I will post those, have to run now.  I suspect we are going to see that it was stroud all along until the s2 poo dropped

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52 minutes ago, Chief_Chokeaho said:

lol you are you trying to convince me or yourself? Again, I’m not digging up old articles and tweets, but the reality is Bryce was considered the #1 pick by virtually everyone in the weeks leading up to the draft. It’s irrelevant. Bryce is a bust and in hindsight I think we can all agree CJ would have been the right move. You don’t get brownie points for pretending like you know more than literal scouts lol. 

Until I hear a legit NFL scout admit something like that, I don't want to denigrate them. I doubt they were that involved. 

It's not like they needed to discover him on some small college field and point him out to their superiors. 

This wan't really that hard and the receipts are right here to read in the pre draft threads. Young was just an historic outlier,  I can't overemphasize that. And outlying the wrong way, too small. 

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1 minute ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Here is the Levis thread.  I havent read through it

 

I found the other betting odds threads and it appears stroud was the leader going into april and then bets were off as bryce was the fav a week before draft.

 

When I get back this afternoon I will post those, have to run now.  I suspect we are going to see that it was stroud all along until the s2 poo dropped

Stroud was linked to Reich’s style of QB. That’s the reason he was originally projected to go here. Young was still the consensus QB1 in that draft. I don’t know why some people refuse to believe this. Luke just said in his recent interview most teams would have taken Bryce 1. Vegas had Stroud, Bryce, Levis, and Bryce again. See how it jumped around. It’s not some fortune teller. I just posted an article on how a majority of the picks right after Bryce went against Vegas odds. Again Vegas just wants to make money. They could care less about anything else. 

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4 minutes ago, strato said:

Until I hear a legit NFL scout admit something like that, I don't want to denigrate them. I doubt they were that involved. 

It's not like they needed to discover him on some small college field and point him out to their superiors. 

This wan't really that hard and the receipts are right here to read in the pre draft threads. Young was just an historic outlier,  I can't overemphasize that. And outlying the wrong way, too small. 

Luke just said he is a firm believer that a majority of the NFL would have taken Bryce at 1 as well. He has been a scout. Look they got it wrong and it’s far from the first time this has happened. I don’t know why it’s so mind boggling? 

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1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

going off memory something was leaked on reddit or something, you would have to go back and read whatever thread there was at the time, but all in all, the sports books dont conspire at the same time to move a line or odds.  There is always something behind it more then likely a surge of betting volume.

 

But to the point stroud was the favorite until a day or so before the draft.  There is a thread and maybe if i get bored this afternoon I will search for it.  But I am pretty sure that the s2, tepper and bryces interviewing flipped the odds

this. someone leaked it on reddit and ton of people bought levis at like +700. Vegas in turn lowered his odds in the event that guy was right so they didn't hemorrhage money

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9 hours ago, Shocker said:

So not true…I will let you know in 2 years how the draft went.  Everyone is Einstien after the fact.  Just stop.  He threw it like no one else in the SEC.  79 TDs in 2 seasons.  Won a Heisman.  Won a national championship.  
It is incredibly shallow and dumb for grown people to be bashing this guy who has done more than most people could only dream of.

Lol talking about college again

As if getting to sit back behind a Bama OL had nothing to do with it. Could’ve put a lot of QB’s on that Bama team and they would’ve put up crazy stats too

So much was made about Young leaving and how he carried Bama his final year and how there would be a huge drop off with Milroe but that didn’t happen at all

Anyone who watched last year and was still finding things to blame other than Young clearly has no idea what they’re watching. 

 

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    • In before: "XL sucks, there is no hope." "As long as we have Bryce, none of this matters." My response: "It's X, not XL...we're not discussing apparel sizes, or we'd have to consider XS."  
    • Alain Pierre provides some food for thought on Last Word On Sports regarding Xavier Legette, and his article, though specifically on X, kind of puts me in the mind of QBs being overdrafted and put into situations that they're not prepared for, some ultimately failing due to drafting missteps by front offices who don't necessarily view prospective players within the contextual importance that situations demand.  At this point, Legette looks like a failure in reference to expectations, of not only what a consistently productive NFL receiver looks like, but a first round pick (which he obviously should never have been). But the story on X isn't necessarily completely over. Damn. I seem to be experiencing deja vu...It wasn't X's fault that he was overdrafted, that was a choice by an FO that obviously downplayed actual realized skill vs outstanding measurables and upside. Sure, the FO was impressed by X's one-year feats during his senior season at South Carolina, but it was the NFL god, RAS (a.k.a. Raw Athletic Score), that had Dave Canales's and Dan Morgan's jaws dropping in amazement at the sight of X running around in underwear at the Combine...   "At 6-foot-3 and over 220 pounds, Legette brought rare athletic upside to the position. His breakout season at South Carolina showed flashes of dominance that NFL teams dream of. Projecting forward, many scouts compared his physical profile to D.K. Metcalf, and the Panthers clearly believed they could develop him into a true wide receiver 1 over time. The issue was never his talent. The issue was the timeline. Just a few picks later, the Chargers selected Ladd McConkey, a receiver who may have lacked Xavier Legette’s physical ceiling but entered the league far more technically refined. McConkey immediately showed advanced route discipline, leverage awareness, good pacing, and separation ability.  Bryce Young’s game has always depended on timing and anticipation. His best football at Alabama came with receivers capable of winning through precision rather than pure athleticism. Jameson Williams and John Metchie III were excellent route runners and were able to get drafted in 2022. McConkey naturally fit that style of play. Legette, meanwhile, needed significant development in the exact areas where Bryce Young needed help. The Panthers drafted traits when Bryce Young needed reliability."   Yes, the FO was guilty. The good thing is that the execs appear to be improving. Some of that may be attributed to the hiring of Eric Eager (who was hired right after the Xavier Legette draft). Eager seems to have helped the Panthers FO fine-tune their analytical progress, and, at least on paper, they acquired players with a lot of value during the last draft in regards to actually (what I'll refer to as) "underdrafting" talent relative to their position with value already built in.  Look at Chris Brazzell: He may be more of the quintessential project receiver who was arguably more or less just as raw as Legette was when he was drafted, and with a relatively high RAS as well. The notable difference is value, as Brazzell was a round three pick and Legette was a first rounder.    "Unlike the Xavier Legette situation, Carolina’s environment for Brazzell is completely different. "The Panthers are not asking a raw receiver prospect to stabilize this offense for Bryce Young. "Brazzell enters a much healthier developmental situation with far less pressure. With Tetairoa McMillan established as the primary target and Jalen Coker continuing to settle as the number 2 option...Xavier Legette, Metchie III, and Jimmy Horn Jr. are also still in this rotation, fighting for reps. "It gives Carolina something they failed to give Legette when they drafted him: A developmental runway. "Xavier Legette entered the league with expectations attached to a first-round pick and an offense desperate for answers. Brazzell enters a room where he can spend a year working on his route running, learning the playbook, and earning snaps gradually rather than being asked to become part of Bryce Young’s solution immediately. "And truthfully, Brazzell needs that time coming out of college. Despite his elite physical tools, many evaluators have several concerns about his overall polish as a receiver. "His route tree at Tennessee was viewed as fairly limited due to the type of offense that they run. The receivers are expected to run a lot of choice routes, which are dictated by the placement of the defenders. It doesn’t require technical route-running and an understanding of the playbook needed at the NFL level...   "Context changes significantly when expectations change. "The Panthers are not depending on Brazzell to save the offense. They can allow him to develop slowly, expand his route tree, improve his technical refinement, and learn behind a much more stable receiver room... "Traits become much easier to bet on when patience is built into the plan."   It's all about understanding your situation. I don't agree that it's an inherently difficult choice like the author is suggesting in the following excerpt. At the very least, I think that it should be easier as long as all parties involved stay levelheaded and true to their process.    "That is what makes these draft decisions so difficult. "Every front office believes it can find the next Metcalf, Owens, or Marshall. Sometimes they do. More often, they are betting on a development path that may take years to complete. "The challenge is understanding what your offense needs right now. "If a team has patience, stability, and a quarterback capable of carrying the offense while a receiver develops, betting on traits can make sense. But if a young quarterback needs immediate help, there is a strong argument for prioritizing the receiver who already knows how to separate, create throwing , and earn trust from day one. "That’s why the Xavier Legette-Ladd McConkey debate remains so fascinating. "It was never really a discussion about talent. It was a discussion about timing."   For me, Ladd McConkey was talented enough in his own right, that the gap--the upside--was never as big as people are suggesting between not only McConkey and Legette, but McConkey and other receivers drafted in the first round during that draft. The technique divide between Ladd and X was pretty stark though, as was the roughly 35 pounds, but the speed was identical, the maybe 1½ height difference isn't huge (6' and 6'1"), and it may surprise some that Ladd's RAS (9.34) was also enough to put him in the top 10 percent of receivers since 1987. There is an argument that he would've been a better pick for Bryce and the Panthers, regardless of timeline and talent. But, I still appreciate the thesis (if you will) of the article, as it still provides some hope--perhaps a glimmer at this point, that X's RAS may finally translate to the NFL given more time, but, perhaps more importantly, it explains how Dan Morgan and company are showing improvement, even if it appears somewhat understated. My hope is that continued improvement is palpable by this time next year. https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2026/05/30/xavier-legette-draft-lessons/#google_vignette        
    • Won’t stop until people stop buying overpriced poo.
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