Winning pie

[Jon Snow]

Just now, ForJimmy said:

It’s so crazy. If we had a shot for pick 1 and there was some generational player there then yeah maybe I could get behind the draft position argument. I’d say most GMs and coaches aren’t diving into the draft right now. They are trying to win games. 

Everyone is playing for something this time of year. You are either playing for a playoff spot, trying to save your job or just trying to put out good tape to help get another job. Not one single professional player or coach is trying for or worrying about draft position. 

[Jon Snow]

5 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Hey guys, remember when we won those meaningless games in 2010 and it cost us the #1 pick and the chance to draft Cam?

Oh.... right

I get that's more of an extreme example because it got us a HOF caliber QB.  But it's the general concept, you want to win late season games when you have the pieces in place to make a run the next season, we currently are not in that place.

Herbert and Sewell are the ones I point to so much, because we literally lost out on 2 franchise different makers by 1 draft slot.  Give us those two players while we still have CMC, Moore, and the rest of the picks we gave up for Bryce, and we'd have been a legit playoff contender the last few years.

Draft position matters in the NFL more than any other sport (other than the #1 pick in the NBA in a year with a generational talent).

[ForJimmy]

8 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Good freaking lord.

How many times does this have to be explained, it really is not a hard concept.

NO... players and coaches will never intentionally lose games, and fans shouldn't want them to.

But as FANS, we can hope we end up losing games because it is what is best for the franchise, even if the players and coaches are trying to win them.

Losing is not the same as tanking, they are two entirely different things, one is acceptable, one is not.

As fans we can hope for whatever we please. You don’t get to dictate what we want. Clearly a majority of us wanted a win…

[tukafan21]

18 minutes ago, woahfraze said:

I’m not saying culture is all that matters. But you just named:

A 4th round pick (Amon Ra St Brown)

Two 2nd round picks (LaPorta and Branch)

The 20th overall pick (Ragnow)

The 18th overall pick (Campbell)

The 12th overall pick (Gibbs)

The 7th overall pick (Sewell)

The 2nd overall pick (Hutchinson)

Two free agency signing (Montgomery and Smith)

A player obtained in a trade (Goff)

So only two players (Sewell and Hutchinson) where is losing ground in draft position from picking ~5 to ~10 would have mattered at all. All the rest were either the front office making the right choices with their draft selections or bring in veterans who fit what the staff wanted to do schematically, or the staff developing those players (FYI, it’s certainly a combination of those two things). 

 

 

Eh, you're looking at it in a vacuum by draft slot, not how they got the picks.

Gibbs and Laporta were because they had the 6th pick in the draft and traded back to get those additional picks to get those guys.  They had the 6th pick in the draft from the Goff trade.

The Rams lost in OT in Week 18 the previous season, if they win that game, the Lions fall back 2 more draft picks and probably aren't able to make that same trade to get both of them.

They got Sewell because we won a meaningless game in Week 17 the season before, if that doesn't happen, we're drafting Sewell before them as LT was our biggest need at the time.

All of that is also a moot point, because them going on that winning steak to close out the 2022 season didn't affect them getting any of those players.  They already had most of them, and the ones they added after that season, was mainly because of the 6th pick in the draft that they held and was only that high because the Rams didn't win a late season game. 

And THAT is the point in all of this.

As you said, it's a combination of having the players and building a winning culture.  And 9 times out of 10, you can't build the winning culture and then add the players afterwards, it's the other way around, you get the players and then build the culture.

The Lions had the players and then built the culture, that's how it's done in the NFL.

Edited December 23, 2024 by tukafan21

[tukafan21]

3 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

As fans we can hope for whatever we please. You don’t get to dictate what we want. Clearly a majority of us wanted a win…

Just as the majority of fans have been rooting for that at the end of seasons for years.

How's that working out for us right now?

We're not here because we haven't had a winning culture, we're here because we haven't had good enough players to build a winning culture, regardless of the coaching staff.

Edited December 23, 2024 by tukafan21

[ForJimmy]

6 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Just as the majority of fans have been rooting for that at the end of seasons for years.

How's that working out for us right now?

We're not here because we haven't had a winning culture, we're here because we haven't had good enough players to build a winning culture, regardless of the coaching staff.

And we just started playing competitive football. Now look we beat a decent team. We can celebrate winning, it will be ok…

[tukafan21]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

And we just started playing competitive football. Now look we beat a decent team. We can celebrate winning, it will be ok…

I'd rather be celebrating playoff wins in a few years than December wins in a 4 win season.

I'm not against rooting for us to win meaningless late season games, I did it in the early Cam years without hesitation.

The difference is we had so many key players in those years, that winning was what was best for our future.  Right now, I don't see it, we have a couple great players and then a bunch of JAGs across the board, if even that good.

We just beat a team that is historically bad on the road, who has only beaten 2 playoff teams this year (and that's assuming the Rams still get in).  It's not like we just beat some great team soundly, I don't see this win as a turnaround for the franchise.

[Martin]

It’s not a great draft, so I’m not that concerned. I really enjoyed the win.

[ForJimmy]

14 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

I'd rather be celebrating playoff wins in a few years than December wins in a 4 win season.

I'm not against rooting for us to win meaningless late season games, I did it in the early Cam years without hesitation.

The difference is we had so many key players in those years, that winning was what was best for our future.  Right now, I don't see it, we have a couple great players and then a bunch of JAGs across the board, if even that good.

We just beat a team that is historically bad on the road, who has only beaten 2 playoff teams this year (and that's assuming the Rams still get in).  It's not like we just beat some great team soundly, I don't see this win as a turnaround for the franchise.

We beat a team that is considered better than us. It’s a confidence booster for this team. It helps them believe in what the staff is coaching. Again there really isn’t some premier player in this draft. I’ll take the wins. I hope we win the next 2 as well. The Cards were playing for a playoff spot and we outplayed them. That’s something to build on. 

[Davidson Deac II]

3 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

At that part of the draft, every pick you fall can be a MASSIVE difference maker.

In 2021, picking 7th instead of 6th cost us Justin Herbert

In 2022, picking 8th instead of 7th cost us Penei Sewell

When winning meaningless games causes you to fall from say the 12th pick to the 15th, it’s not as big of a deal.  But when a meaningless win could drop you from 4th to 7th, then it could cost you significantly.

 

2020 for Herbert.

I really wish we had taken Jordan Love, who I think is better than Herbert.  But draft picks are always a crap shoot.   

[bigjohn]

2 hours ago, PappyMay said:

I agree we aren’t contending for a Super Bowl , but if we hit on 2-3 signings and have a good draft I don’t see why we can’t compete for the crappy NFC South. 9-8 type season could get you there.

But according to some in here, possibly competing for a division title isn't worth it. We should lose on purpose and completely poo on any late season wins. You know, keep stock piling top 3 picks because that's what good franchises do. Do that 3 or 4 more years in a row, THEN try to win on purpose. That's the formula for a Super Bowl, amirite?

[Davidson Deac II]

Jacksonville seems to be on track for getting a top 2-3 overall pick for the third time in the last five years.  Doesn't seemed to have helped much, but maybe third time will be the charm.  Meanwhile the two time defending Superbowl champ Chiefs have only picked in the top ten once since 2013 and they had to trade up to get there.  The team they beat last year, the forty niners did get Bosa as a top ten pick.  They also picked Trey Lance (bust), McGlinchey (no longer with the team) and Solomon Thomas (bust).  

There are certainly some advantages in getting higher picks, but those advantages are greatly exaggerated by proponents of the tank.  

[weyco2000]

1 hour ago, tukafan21 said:

If you think the Lions are who they are today solely because of Dan Campbell, then you just don't get it.

Don't get me wrong, he's a huge part of it, but...........

Amon Ra, Gibbs, Goff, Sewell, Ragnow, Hutchinson, Branch all off the top of my head are better than any player on our roster not named Derrick Brown (and some of them are better than DB anyways).  And that's before you even talk about guys like Montgomery, LaPorta, Smith, Campbell, all of whom would be starting over players on our team right now as well (and there may be others too, I don't have their full roster memorized).

Culture is great and all, and no, you can't win without it.  But more important than culture is actually having the players you need to win, and we just don't have that right now, our roster is still a mess.  

If you don't think the franchise would be in a better place if we were picking 1 draft slot better in 2020 and 2021 and have gotten Herbert and Sewell in those drafts, then you're kidding yourself.  

We could have had an offense of Herbert, CMC, Moore, and one of the game's best LT's.

But sure, that extra win in each of those seasons still give me all the good feels all these years later, who needs to have an offense with all those guys in their prime.

When was the last time the Lions won a Super Bowl? Hell when did they ever play IN a Super Bowl? 

[Davidson Deac II]

1 hour ago, woahfraze said:

I’m not saying culture is all that matters. But you just named:

A 4th round pick (Amon Ra St Brown)

Two 2nd round picks (LaPorta and Branch)

The 20th overall pick (Ragnow)

The 18th overall pick (Campbell)

The 12th overall pick (Gibbs)

The 7th overall pick (Sewell)

The 2nd overall pick (Hutchinson)

Two free agency signing (Montgomery and Smith)

A player obtained in a trade (Goff)

So only two players (Sewell and Hutchinson) where is losing ground in draft position from picking ~5 to ~10 would have mattered at all. All the rest were either the front office making the right choices with their draft selections or bring in veterans who fit what the staff wanted to do schematically, or the staff developing those players (FYI, it’s certainly a combination of those two things). 

 

 

Yeah, I cannot get this got to lose games to get higher picks. 

You have to make smart picks, and smart trades, and smart free agent signings.  No one doubts that. But losing intentionally never helps a team.