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I kinda hate getting our pick spoiled but at least the Huddle has more Time to debate
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hope this is not common knowledge to you, lifeless internet whores, (perhaps a bit too strong) but I decided to look into this to see what data Morgan and company will be examining. Morgan recently said that Ickey's surgery was successful, but that is far from an endorsement that his return to form will be. Mathematically, his return to form is a longshot, and if he cannot play at the level he was playing, we need a left tackle, regardless of the 9-12 month average recovery time. Career Outlook for Linemen Recent medical data indicates that offensive linemen (OL) have a significantly higher risk for patellar tendon injuries compared to all other position groups. For linemen, the mechanical demands of the position—specifically the extreme eccentric overload required during pass-blocking and the stress of managing a higher body mass index (BMI)—contribute to both injury frequency and difficulty in recovery. Return to Play (RTP) Rate: The overall RTP for PT ruptures is only ~55%, significantly lower than the ~79% average for other orthopedic surgeries. In other words, a player with an ACL is 25% more likely to return to play. Return to Form: Only 21.4% of players return to their pre-injury performance level within two years. (We have a 1-5 chance that Ickey returns to his present form-forget about his positive development and potential before the injury. I am not a fan of those odds, especially when it could take 2 years to get there.) Positional Impact: While skill players (WRs, RBs) rely on agility that the patella tendon (PT) anchors, linemen require the tendon for the "explosive" leg drive needed to anchor against 300+ lb defenders. (In other words, it impacts agility and leg drive, and I can't think of many positions on the field that need those abilities more) Injury Type Return to Play (RTP) Rate Career Longevity Impact Patellar Tendon Rupture 50% – 57% Highest (Worst outcomes in games played/performance) Achilles Tendon Rupture ~76% High (Decline in power/efficiency ratings) ACL Repair (ACLR) ~79% Moderate (Significant 1st-year decline; better long-term recovery) Recent High-Profile Cases (2025–2026) Ickey Ekwonu (Panthers LT): Suffered a rupture in January 2026; he is expected to miss the entire 2026 season due to the 6–12 month recovery timeline. Rashawn Slater (Chargers LT): Suffered a rupture in August 2025, forcing him to miss the 2025 season and potentially much of 2026. Trent Brown (Texans RT): Suffered a tear in late 2024 and returned to play in 2025, serving as a rare "hope" case for the position. Data from the NFL and NIH (National Institute of Health) Overall Assessment We basically have a year to evaluate Ickey's progress, but we need to consider the likelihood that he will never return to form. What is Ickey's "Form?" Ickey had 7 penalties (about average for the position) and surrendered 5 sacks (bottom third). So the lever he has a 21% chance of returning to is serviceable--not elite or above average. There is a 78% chance that he does not return to this level or play. I would add that he has been improving, but the data does not include projected form; it is based on current levels (2025) The Panther decision: In the view of MHS, the Panthers should begin be re-signing Nijman and BC if possible. I imagine their agents are aware of the Ickey situation. Nijman is 30ish and a strong run blocker, but his pass pro is weak (47.0 PFF vs run grade of 86.1-that is consistent with my novice observations). He needs TE/RB help, in other words in some passing sets. Christensen (29) would be my preference, however, because he has shown the capability to be an effective left tackle in the NFL, driven by elite agility, technically sound pass-blocking, and high-level college production (96.0 PFF grade in 2020). While sometimes limited by average arm length compared to prototypical tackles, his quick feet allow him to reach spots and maintain balance. He has successfully filled in at tackle for the Panthers and is considered a highly versatile, dependable lineman. So if the Panthers can get these two back, they could find a LT later in the draft to develop. The more I think about it, the more this might be my play. Even if the OT we draft late is not ready to play LT in 2027, we still need depth and youth at RT. I would move Ekwonu to guard now and have him start learning that position (film, technique). Lewis and Hunt will be leaving (unless restructured) in 2027-2028. If Ekwonu takes 2 years to "return to form" as stated, he will show signs of his potential in 12 months--allowing Morgan and doctors to assess his likelihood to return. Then I might offer a backloaded, unguaranteed contract with heavy incentives. We could draft a LT in the first round, but forcing a rookie to start at LT in the NFL has been far from a quick fix or recipe for success. They often struggle for the first year--I am satisfied that, if we run the ball more as seems to be our MO, use more quick hitting passes such as slants, outs and some digs, we can function for a season with BC and Nijman. Maybe this is a situation that is good on paper but catastrophic on the field, but free agency is not where you find your LT, and first round rookies tend to struggle. Furthermore, at the Senior Bowl (I think it was the Senior Bowl--East West maybe?) the panthers seemed interested in a tackle that is going to be a day 3 pick. Of course, there are no first or second rounders playing in that game, so it could just be due dilligence. -
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By mrcompletely11 · Posted
I dont disagree but saying that now feels like we are in bizarro world. Can you imagine typing that back in August?
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