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[Mina Kimes Show] The offensive trends taking over the NFL


Icege
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Finally got to finish listening to Mina and Dan talk about the resurgence of the importance of the run in today's game. A lot of what they discussed lines up with what the Panthers seem to be attempting to build under Canales + Evero.

  • Teams are running the football more than they have in nearly a decade. The best offenses in the league last year (BAL, BUF, DET, GB) were also the top rushing teams. The old assumption that you could pass your way to being a top-5 offense without a consistent ground game isn't holding up anymore.
  • Offenses are getting under center more and leaning into physicality and time of possession. That shift is happening in direct response to defenses going lighter in personnel to stop spread and RPO-heavy attacks.
  • 12 personnel usage is at its highest since 2007. If you have TEs who can block and catch, defenses can't easily match personnel. Baltimore's Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely were used as examples, and the Bengals (who have mostly used 11 personnel with Burrow at the helm) are also leaning into the model with the as pass catching TE (Gesicki) and a blocking TE (Sample).
  • Condensed formations (tight splits, bunch alignments, etc) are now used more than ever. These sets create traffic, allow WRs to block more effectively, and force DBs to tackle. The goal isn't spacing; it's leverage, angles, and chaos.
  • Defenses are trying to respond with more blitzes from the secondary and by rotating coverages post-snap. The big nickel is ever increasing in their importance on the field. Linemen and linebackers are trading in size and strength for speed and athleticism. This makes them more susceptible to the run. They're also taking greater risks on earlier downs.
  • Fourth-down aggressiveness hit 20% league-wide last year, the highest on record. It's more than just going for it though, it's a shift in offensive philosophy. Teams now call second and third down differently when they know they'll use all four downs. That makes checkdowns, 3yd gains, etc meaningful building blocks instead of perceived failures.


Hearing all of that and looking at the Panthers, it's difficult to not do a double take. 👀

  • The Panthers have an RB room built for the grind. Chuba is the workhorse, Dowdle is a more than capable back-up that can also start, and Etienne provides further depth. If JB's year off puts him in place to come back and contribute to the roster after Dowdle's deal expires, look out!
  • The emphasis on time of possession and intelligent decision making fits Bryce's playstyle as well as the returning OL. With defenses getting lighter, having a mauling offensive line is going to make life even easier for the RBs which in turn will make the QBs job simpler. On the defensive side of things, the team got bigger in the trenches and brought in one of the best tackling run-stopping DBs in the league in Tre'von Moehrig. That's a wise investment when looking at the division and realizing that they're going to have to defend against Alvin Kamara, Bucky Irvin, Bijan Robinson, and Tyler Allegeier twice a year.
  • Regarding 12 personnel, Tremble is more of a blocker but is a capable pass catcher. Sanders is more of a pass catcher but might be more effective in the run game with his improved physique. Mitchell Evans is another TE that can both block and catch. While they might not have an elite guy in the room yet, having versatile tight ends has been the shift vs. just having an elite pass-catching TE. The team didn't run as much 12 sets as the rest of the league, but when considering the injuries that took place it (and that TE2 was a rookie) it makes sense. It'll be interesting to see if they lean more into 12 this season.
  • Condensed formations focus on creating match ups on the perimeter rather than working the space inside created via spread offenses. This plays into Bryce's game as well as the receiving corps that the team is working with. TMac and XL provide shot plays on the perimeter which, if successful, will lead to more space inside for Bryce to work with. While he's shown that he's willing to go over the middle despite his size, there is also the reality of congestion over the middle being more difficult for him to deal with unless he buys time with his legs to let things clear up.
  • With Evero's love of the safety position and the addition of Moehrig, expect him to rotate down as the big nickel and occasional three safety looks. Evero wants DBs that can tackle and sent Jaycee on some well-timed corner blitzes last season. With the DL being retooled, he might be able to leverage Wallace/Jewell to provide pressure from the LB position as well by blitzing them on early downs.
  • I don't think I will ever recover from Jimmy Clausen's checkdowns, but it's good to hear that those are no longer the drive killers that they used to be. Taking the checkdown on 2nd & 7 to get to 3rd & 5 to get to 4th & 2 is becoming increasingly viable (though not exactly dependable).
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2 hours ago, Icege said:

 

  • Condensed formations focus on creating match ups on the perimeter rather than working the space inside created via spread offenses. This plays into Bryce's game as well as the receiving corps that the team is working with. TMac and XL provide shot plays on the perimeter which, if successful, will lead to more space inside for Bryce to work with. While he's shown that he's willing to go over the middle despite his size, there is also the reality of congestion over the middle being more difficult for him to deal with unless he buys time with his legs to let things clear up.

When we drafted Bryce....no one was arguing that was his game.    It is Dave's.  And he has drafted a roster post Bryce that fits it.  

I still think Bryce is sort of the misplaced character in the present day build of the Panthers.  Think he naturally fits a spread them out game and nickel and dime them.  Not the chunk play vertical game on the perimeter game that is the Dave tree. 

I still think Morgan is building something more along the lines of his 2003 era team.....and the best fit at QB is a downfield gambler (which is also what Dave Canales did at Tampa and Pete did at Seattle). 

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39 minutes ago, CRA said:

When we drafted Bryce....no one was arguing that was his game.    It is Dave's.  And he has drafted a roster post Bryce that fits it.  

I still think Bryce is sort of the misplaced character in the present day build of the Panthers.  Think he naturally fits a spread them out game and nickel and dime them.  Not the chunk play vertical game on the perimeter game that is the Dave tree. 

I still think Morgan is building something more along the lines of his 2003 era team.....and the best fit at QB is a downfield gambler (which is also what Dave Canales did at Tampa and Pete did at Seattle). 

 

Running or being able to run the ball allows you to control the game. You control the pace, score, and time of possession. It does also allow your defense to rest and when they do get on the field, go 100%. That in turn forces the opponents offense not have 3 and outs. That's huge pressure, if the other team is just running the ball while having 14 plays drives. 

If you are able to get 3.5 yards a carry and mix in smoke routes that gain similar while allowing the clock to run......you control the game. 

Deal is nearly all rules changes in the 25 years have helped the passing part. Young folks and gambling folk want to see 37-45 scores. Those 10-16 score teams are poison and toxic, I don't care personally just win. I can enjoy a 6-3 slug-out just the same as 50-42. 

There just too many factors to go over. Running used to be important for playoff ball, cause it was before half the league got domes. Running the ball in snow, cold, wet conditions was the path. Like NE played in that awful division each for 20 years during the Dynasty run, they normally had the #1 seed and home field. Thats why bill always had a #1 defense and enough offense to win. It was a huge advantage. 

 

I have thought you need to pass in order to score, THEN you must be able to run the ball with 7minutes remaining to keep the other teams offense off the field. But if you're setup to pass and get no experience during the game to try rushing plays, who knows what you can do. So I feel you truly need a balanced attack, that's the key and main goal. Run for first downs went you need too and pass for TDs when you need too.  

 

  

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To me, running the ball has always been important. Sure there have been outliers, but it's easier to win championships when you run with legitimacy. Like I've said in the past, don't get not wanting to pay RBs and not wanting to run the ball confused. 

As for playing under center, we'll see how that's going to work for Bryce. This is the year for him to convince the world that he's starter-material in today's NFL, and playing consistently under center is part of that, and it's really the only believable way to execute play-action. I will give him this though, he's not afraid to spread the ball around. We'll see what happens this season.

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3 hours ago, Icege said:

With Evero's love of the safety position and the addition of Moehrig, expect him to rotate down as the big nickel and occasional three safety looks.

3 safety looks?  We’ll need to sign 2 more legit safeties to even attempt that.  

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4 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Everything goes in waves. As defenses geared up more to stop the passing game they've become more vulnerable to the run not to mention the added benefit that road grading run blockers don't command the crazy money that the dancing bear elite pass protectors do on the OL.

And until demonstrated otherwise, it remains a very effective way of building a playoff loser.  I really wanted to see the Ravens win this year to accelerate the change.  But nobody's actually won a Super Bowl with that team build in the modern era.

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7 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

And until demonstrated otherwise, it remains a very effective way of building a playoff loser.  I really wanted to see the Ravens win this year to accelerate the change.  But nobody's actually won a Super Bowl with that team build in the modern era.

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#2 rushing offense, #29 passing offense (one spot ahead of the Panthers)

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1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, this was something that was bound to happen. The importance of having an elite QB will never go away entirely but these things go in waves.

That's the other thing. With the way these QB contracts are going unless you have an elite MVP caliber tier QB you're honestly better off building an offense that is geared to revolve around establishing the run and leaning on play action to setup the pass than you are to pa my some mid to lower tier starter a huge chunk of your salary cap. Let somebody else pay that guy and draft another one.

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